USD Steady as Markets Await US-Iran Deal Amid Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

The US dollar remains range-bound as geopolitical developments dominate market sentiment, with traders closely monitoring progress on a potential US-Iran framework agreement. President Trump confirmed that 'all shooting will stop' as the US brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, a key precondition Iran demanded before entering broader negotiations on a memorandum of understanding. The geopolitical uncertainty has kept safe-haven flows elevated, supporting both the USD and traditional havens like JPY and CHF. Oil prices remain sensitive to the outcome, with any breakthrough potentially easing supply concerns and weighing on commodity-linked currencies such as CAD. Currency markets are largely in a holding pattern, with USD/JPY and EUR/USD consolidating near recent levels as traders await clarity on the diplomatic front. Near-term volatility could spike significantly depending on whether negotiations progress or collapse. Traders should monitor headline risk closely, as a confirmed deal could trigger a broad risk-on move, weakening safe havens while boosting risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD.