CHFJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 199.53 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for CHFJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 88% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Low Risk

Market Consensus:

12% Long

88% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for CHFJPY (signal strength: 77%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 201.3673; Retail sentiment is 82% bearish. Contradicting factors: CHF is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 14%). Risk assessment for this trade is low. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

18% 82%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Extremely bearish sentiment with 82% of traders holding short positions. This extreme positioning could indicate a potential contrarian long opportunity as the market may be oversold.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 203.66 2.07% ↑

Analysis Price: 199.53

Support Levels

S1: 198.17 0.68% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

65%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 198.17 (0.68% below analysis price) with resistance at 203.66 (2.07% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

81%

Bullish Flag

Reliability:

81%

Detected: Feb 16, 00:48

62%

Head and Shoulders

Reliability:

62%

Detected: Feb 16, 20:15

55%

Hammer

Reliability:

55%

Detected: Feb 16, 05:17

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bullish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting upward momentum. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Bullish Flag on the H4 timeframe with 81% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

199.95

analysis price:

199.53

Distance:

0.22%

Confluence Factors:

Bearish Engulfing 62% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 199.95. This presents a potential selling opportunity with stop loss slightly above the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.6

Volatility Regime:

High

Volatility Level:

75%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

CHFJPY is experiencing high volatility (75 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.6 pips. This above-average movement creates trading opportunities but requires careful risk management. Consider slightly wider stop losses and moderate position sizing.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with CHFJPY

USDCHF

-0.78

USDJPY

0.76

GBPJPY

0.74

AUDCHF

-0.72

GBPCHF

-0.71

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how CHFJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

CHFJPY shows strong positive correlation with: USDJPY, GBPJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

CHFJPY shows strong negative correlation with: USDCHF, AUDCHF, GBPCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

CHF

0.07

Neutral

JPY

0.70

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-0.63

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than CHF on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.63. This suggests a strong bearish bias for CHFJPY. However, this bias is primarily driven by the strength of JPY.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on CHFJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.