CHFJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 181.47 (Updated: 2 July 2025, 05:11 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for CHFJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 68% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

32% Long

68% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for CHFJPY (signal strength: 37%). Supporting factors include: Retail sentiment is 81% bearish; CHF is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 37%). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

19% 81%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Extremely bearish sentiment with 81% of traders holding short positions. This extreme positioning could indicate a potential contrarian long opportunity as the market may be oversold.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 181.84 0.20% ↑

Analysis Price: 181.47

Support Levels

S1: 180.08 0.76% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 181.84 (0.20% above analysis price) with support at 180.08 (0.76% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

92%

Rectangle

Reliability:

92%

Detected: Jul 1, 07:51

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly neutral patterns detected, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The most reliable pattern is a neutral Rectangle on the D1 timeframe with 92% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the D1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for CHFJPY at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.6

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

22%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

CHFJPY is exhibiting low volatility (22 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.6 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with CHFJPY

CADCHF

-0.90

AUDJPY

0.85

CADJPY

0.85

USDCHF

-0.79

USDJPY

0.77

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how CHFJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

CHFJPY shows strong positive correlation with: AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

CHFJPY shows strong negative correlation with: CADCHF, USDCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

CHF

-0.55

Weak

JPY

-0.74

Very-weak

Relative Strength:

0.19

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CHF and JPY show similar strength levels on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.19. This indicates a neutral bias for CHFJPY and suggests range-bound trading conditions may be more likely.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on CHFJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.