CHFJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 184.13 (Updated: 1 October 2025, 16:12 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for CHFJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 86% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Low Risk

Market Consensus:

14% Long

86% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for CHFJPY (signal strength: 72%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 185.4444; Retail sentiment is 76% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is low. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

20% 80%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Extremely bearish sentiment with 80% of traders holding short positions. This extreme positioning could indicate a potential contrarian long opportunity as the market may be oversold.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 186.08 1.06% ↑

Analysis Price: 184.13

Support Levels

S1: 183.98 0.08% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 183.98 (0.08% below analysis price) with resistance at 186.08 (1.06% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

71%

Shooting Star

Reliability:

71%

Detected: Oct 1, 16:49

68%

Doji

Reliability:

68%

Detected: Sep 30, 20:02

52%

Doji

Reliability:

52%

Detected: Oct 1, 12:07

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly neutral patterns detected, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Shooting Star on the H4 timeframe with 71% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

186.00

analysis price:

184.13

Distance:

0.91%

Confluence Factors:

Evening Star 61.8% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

92%

Zone Level:

181.00

analysis price:

184.13

Distance:

1.80%

Confluence Factors:

Morning Star 38.2% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 186.00, currently 0.91% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.6

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

12%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

CHFJPY is exhibiting low volatility (12 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.6 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with CHFJPY

CADCHF

-0.89

EURCHF

-0.85

NZDCHF

-0.69

NZDJPY

0.67

CADJPY

0.66

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how CHFJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

CHFJPY shows strong negative correlation with: CADCHF, EURCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

CHF

-0.72

Very-weak

JPY

0.93

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.65

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than CHF on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.65. This suggests a strong bearish bias for CHFJPY. With JPY showing absolute strength and CHF showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on CHFJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.