CHFJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 196.378 (Updated: 19 August 2026, 09:18 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for CHFJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 60% bearish signal balance based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

View CHFJPY sentiment overview

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Signal Balance:

40% Long

60% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for CHFJPY (signal strength: 20%). Supporting factors include: Technical patterns identified: Double Top (H4), Double Top (H1). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

46% 54%

Historical Sentiment

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Analysis Price: 196.378

Resistance Levels

R1: 196.700 0.16% ↑

R2: 197.020 0.33% ↑

R3: 200.960 2.33% ↑

Support Levels

S1: 196.150 0.12% ↓

S2: 195.470 0.46% ↓

S3: 194.230 1.09% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Neutral

Analyst Comment:

Post-crash base-building between 195.5 and 197.0 with RSI still under 50 but MACD improving. Neutral until 197.02 gives way.

Direction Probability:

54%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 196.150 (0.12% below analysis price) and resistance at 196.700 (0.16% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

75%

Double Top

Reliability:

75%

Detected: Aug 18, 04:00

75%

Double Top

Reliability:

75%

Detected: Aug 19, 06:00

71%

Evening Star

Reliability:

71%

Detected: Aug 12, 00:00

66%

Bearish Engulfing

Reliability:

66%

Detected: Aug 19, 04:00

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Double Top on the H4 timeframe with 75% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

81%

Zone Level:

196.702

analysis price:

196.378

Distance:

0.18%

Confluence Factors:

Double Top 50% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

62%

Zone Level:

195.472

analysis price:

196.378

Distance:

0.45%

Confluence Factors:

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

51%

Zone Level:

194.233

analysis price:

196.378

Distance:

1.08%

Confluence Factors:

Valid on Timeframes:

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (81%) resistance zone at 196.702. This presents a potential selling opportunity with stop loss slightly above the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

14.5

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

37%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

CHFJPY is showing normal volatility (37 percentile) with an expected daily range of 14.5 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with CHFJPY

EURJPY

0.91

GBPJPY

0.88

CADJPY

0.85

AUDJPY

0.82

NZDJPY

0.79

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how CHFJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

CHFJPY shows strong positive correlation with: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

CHF

-0.43

Weak

JPY

-0.31

Weak

Relative Strength:

-0.12

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CHF and JPY show similar strength levels on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.12. This indicates a neutral bias for CHFJPY and suggests range-bound trading conditions may be more likely.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on CHFJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.