CHFJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 196.430 (Updated: 19 August 2026, 00:17 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for CHFJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 70% bearish signal balance based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 51% long, 49% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

View CHFJPY sentiment overview

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Low Risk

Signal Balance:

30% Long

70% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for CHFJPY (signal strength: 40%). Supporting factors include: Price is near a resistance level at 196.702 (0.14% above current price); Technical patterns identified: Double Top (H4), Double Top (H1); High probability (76%) resistance zone detected at 197.024; CHF is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 22%). Risk assessment for this trade is low. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (51% long / 49% short). The overall bearish bias (70%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

51% 49%

Historical Sentiment

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Analysis Price: 196.430

Resistance Levels

R1: 196.702 0.14% ↑

R2: 197.024 0.30% ↑

R3: 200.956 2.30% ↑

Support Levels

S1: 195.472 0.49% ↓

S2: 194.233 1.12% ↓

S3: 192.657 1.92% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Neutral

Analyst Comment:

Post-crash consolidation between 195.5 and 197.0 with RSI 44 and improving but still negative MACD. Neutral until 197.02 or 195.47 gives way.

Direction Probability:

53%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 196.702 (0.14% above analysis price) with support at 195.472 (0.49% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

75%

Double Top

Reliability:

75%

Detected: Aug 18, 04:00

75%

Double Top

Reliability:

75%

Detected: Aug 18, 21:00

71%

Evening Star

Reliability:

71%

Detected: Aug 12, 00:00

59%

Shooting Star

Reliability:

59%

Detected: Aug 18, 00:00

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Double Top on the H4 timeframe with 75% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

76%

Zone Level:

197.024

analysis price:

196.430

Distance:

0.27%

Confluence Factors:

Double Top 50% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

69%

Zone Level:

198.100

analysis price:

196.430

Distance:

0.82%

Confluence Factors:

Double Top 38% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

Support Zone

62%

Zone Level:

195.472

analysis price:

196.430

Distance:

0.52%

Confluence Factors:

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

51%

Zone Level:

194.233

analysis price:

196.430

Distance:

1.15%

Confluence Factors:

Valid on Timeframes:

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (76%) resistance zone at 197.024. This presents a potential selling opportunity with stop loss slightly above the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

12.9

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

CHFJPY is exhibiting low volatility (0 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 12.9 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with CHFJPY

EURJPY

0.91

GBPJPY

0.88

CADJPY

0.85

AUDJPY

0.84

NZDJPY

0.77

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how CHFJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

CHFJPY shows strong positive correlation with: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

CHF

0.43

Strong

JPY

0.79

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-0.36

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is moderately stronger than CHF on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.36. This suggests a mild bearish bias for CHFJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on CHFJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.