USD/CAD, USD/INR Rally as Strait of Hormuz Blockade Fuels Oil Surge

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has reaffirmed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, declaring that no oil or gas shipments will transit the critical chokepoint while US military strikes continue. Vessel traffic through the strait has dropped significantly over the past week, threatening roughly 20% of global oil supply flows and sending crude prices sharply higher. The escalation is driving significant moves across oil-sensitive forex pairs, with USD/CAD facing upward pressure on the Canadian dollar's correlation with crude, while USD/INR is climbing as India — a major oil importer — faces rising import costs. Safe-haven flows are boosting JPY and CHF demand against risk currencies. The disruption represents the most severe threat to global energy supply chains in years, with Brent crude on pace for its biggest weekly gain since April. Traders should monitor further military developments closely, as any escalation or de-escalation could trigger violent moves in commodity-linked and emerging market currencies. Risk aversion is likely to persist until shipping lanes reopen.