USD/INR near record high on RBI intervention; gold slips below $4,400

Asia-Pacific trade delivered a mix of intervention risk and commodity dislocation. The Reserve Bank of India returned to the market to defend the rupee as USD/INR hovered near an all-time high, capping the pair but doing little to change the structural bias. Gold fell back below $4,400 an ounce even as ETF inflows resumed, while the diesel crack surged to a record $102 a barrel and UKMTO reported a vessel struck by a projectile exiting the Strait of Hormuz, keeping an energy risk premium in place that supports CAD and NOK. Westpac argued the dollar's structural headwinds outweigh its recent resilience and forecast higher EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while ING said the heavy tone in Treasuries has further to run as the tariff truce lapses. Analysts also warned a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this week, a downside risk for AUD/USD and NZD/USD via the China growth channel. Traders should watch Hormuz headlines, RBI fixings and the LPR decision for near-term direction.