AUD/USD Tests Key Resistance as Dollar Weakness Accelerates

AUD/USD has surged 0.5% to 0.6485, approaching critical resistance at 0.6500 as the US dollar extends its recent decline into month-end. The pair is challenging a major technical level that has capped gains since early May, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for an upside breakout. Dollar weakness stems from growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in H2 2025, while the Australian dollar finds support from resilient commodity prices and stable domestic economic data. The 0.6500 level represents both psychological resistance and the 50-day moving average convergence point. A decisive break above could trigger acceleration toward 0.6550-0.6580, where the 200-day moving average resides. Traders are positioning for potential month-end flows that could amplify the move, with stop-losses clustered above 0.6510. Near-term support sits at 0.6450, with failure to hold above potentially negating the bullish setup.