AUD/USD tests resistance as traders await Tuesday's US CPI data

AUD/USD is challenging the upper trendline resistance near 0.6750, maintaining its rangebound behavior as the dollar consolidates following last week's Non-Farm Payrolls report. The NFP data showed robust job creation but softer wage growth at 3.9% year-over-year, limiting USD gains and causing traders to reconsider expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market pricing now reflects reduced probability of a third rate cut by year-end, down from 75% to approximately 60%. The pair has found support at 0.6680 while resistance holds firm at the 0.6750-0.6760 zone. Tuesday's US CPI report becomes the next critical catalyst, with consensus expecting core inflation to remain sticky at 3.3% year-over-year. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the dollar and push AUD/USD below 0.6700, while softer inflation might propel the pair above the current resistance toward 0.6800.