XAU/USD targets $4,000 on Fed dovishness and dollar weakness

XAU/USD could reach $4,000/oz by end-2026, according to Fidelity International, representing a potential 60% gain from current levels near $2,500. The investment firm cites an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve stance, anticipated dollar weakness, and sustained central bank gold purchases as primary catalysts. Multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson revealed that some portfolios have doubled their gold allocations to 10% following the recent pullback from April's record highs above $3,500. The bullish outlook reflects growing expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025-2026, which historically correlates with gold strength and dollar weakness. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue their aggressive gold accumulation strategy, providing consistent demand support. Technical analysis suggests immediate resistance at $2,600, with support established at $2,450. A sustained break above $2,600 could accelerate momentum toward the psychological $3,000 level, making the $4,000 target increasingly feasible for long-term positioned traders.