NZD/USD has tumbled 1.2% to 0.5880, marking its steepest daily decline in three months after New Zealand's unemployment rate surged to 4.8% from 4.0% in Q3, significantly exceeding the 4.3% forecast. Employment contracted by 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, the first decline since 2020, while wage growth slowed to 3.8% annually. AUD/NZD surged 0.9% to 1.0920 as relative economic performance diverged. The deteriorating labor market data reinforces expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will pause its tightening cycle, with markets now pricing a 70% probability of no change at the November meeting. Technical indicators show NZD/USD breaking below crucial 0.5900 support, targeting 0.5850 (October low). Resistance has formed at 0.5950. The employment weakness suggests RBNZ may need to balance inflation concerns against growth risks, keeping NZD vulnerable.
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