USD/SGD in focus as Singapore exports rise 9.3% but miss forecasts

USD/SGD faces mixed signals as Singapore's January non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 9.3% year-on-year, falling short of market expectations and highlighting an uneven trade recovery. Electronics exports drove the gains, while non-electronics shipments contracted, underscoring sector-level divergence in the city-state's export performance. The data arrives shortly after Singapore authorities upgraded both growth and export forecasts for 2026, buoyed by stronger-than-expected Q4 2025 GDP growth of 6.9% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter. The 2026 GDP growth outlook was lifted to 2%–4%, up from 1%–3% previously, reflecting improved economic momentum. The Monetary Authority of Singapore's exchange rate-based policy framework means these growth and trade dynamics directly influence SGD trajectory. The miss on export expectations may temper near-term SGD bullishness, though the upgraded macro outlook provides underlying support. Traders should monitor upcoming trade data for confirmation of recovery breadth and watch for MAS policy signals at the April meeting, which could influence USD/SGD direction around key levels.