USD Faces Uncertainty as Trump's Iran Address Keeps Safe-Haven Flows in Focus

The US dollar remains in a holding pattern as markets brace for President Trump's scheduled address to the nation at 0100 GMT, promising "important updates" on the US-Iran conflict. The geopolitical tension has been a dominant driver of safe-haven flows, benefiting traditional refuge currencies such as JPY and CHF while keeping risk-sensitive pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD under pressure. Gold has also seen elevated demand amid the uncertainty. The tone of Trump's address will be critical — any indication of de-escalation could trigger a reversal in safe-haven positioning, weakening JPY and CHF while boosting risk appetite and commodity currencies. Conversely, an escalatory tone could deepen the flight to safety and pressure USD/JPY toward lower levels. Oil prices remain elevated on supply disruption fears, adding an inflationary dimension that complicates the Federal Reserve's policy calculus. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility across major pairs immediately following the address, with USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD likely to see the sharpest reactions.