USD/JPY Faces Bearish RSI Divergence After Failing to Hold March Highs

USD/JPY is showing significant technical weakness after failing to sustain its rally to April 2024 highs during a mid-March crude oil spike. The pair's inability to hold above prior resistance levels has coincided with a bearish RSI divergence on higher timeframes, a classic signal that upward momentum is fading despite price attempts at new highs. This divergence suggests that buyers are losing conviction, and the pair may be vulnerable to a deeper pullback. The mid-March bounce was largely driven by a temporary crude oil price surge, which briefly supported dollar strength through risk-on flows, but that catalyst has since dissipated. From a fundamental perspective, the Bank of Japan's gradual normalization path continues to provide underlying yen support, while Federal Reserve rate expectations remain data-dependent. Key technical support sits near the 50-day moving average, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward the 200-day moving average. Traders should watch for confirmation of the bearish divergence with a decisive close below recent consolidation lows before committing to short positions.