USD/IRR & Oil Prices React to US-Iran Tentative 60-Day Deal

A tentative 60-day Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran has been reported by Axios, introducing significant geopolitical implications for forex and commodity markets. Iranian negotiators reportedly secured approval from senior leadership and indicated readiness to sign, though the agreement still requires final approval from President Trump, who has requested several days to review the proposal. The potential deal carries broad implications for crude oil markets, as any easing of sanctions or diplomatic normalization could increase Iranian oil supply, pressuring WTI and Brent prices lower. A decline in oil prices would weigh on commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK, while potentially benefiting oil-importing nations' currencies like JPY and INR. The US dollar may see mixed reactions — reduced geopolitical risk could suppress safe-haven demand, softening USD and JPY flows. Traders should monitor Trump's final decision closely, as ratification would likely trigger a risk-on move across markets, supporting EUR/USD and AUD/USD while pressuring USD/CAD higher on weakening crude.