Oil & Gold React as Iran-Israel Ceasefire Returns Amid Middle East Tensions

Geopolitical risk dominated European market sentiment as Iran announced the end of military operations against Israel, with both sides reportedly seeking an immediate ceasefire according to President Trump. However, Iran simultaneously warned it is prepared for a prolonged conflict and potential strikes against US interests, while blaming the US for recent ceasefire breaches. Oil prices moved higher to start the week as Middle East tensions flared up, adding risk premium across energy markets. Gold, meanwhile, tumbled to fresh monthly lows as a strong US Non-Farm Payrolls report delivered a hawkish reality check for Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Euro area investor confidence data also weighed on sentiment. The conflicting signals — geopolitical risk supporting safe havens versus strong US labor data reinforcing a higher-for-longer Fed stance — created a complex trading environment. Traders should monitor ceasefire developments closely, as any escalation could trigger sharp moves in oil-sensitive currencies like USD/CAD and safe-haven pairs including USD/JPY and XAU/USD.