The US dollar held steady as President Trump reaffirmed via Truth Social that Iran has committed to imposing no tolls, insurance costs, or other charges on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also confirmed that no money has been transferred to Iran as part of ongoing negotiations, warning that any deviation from these terms would immediately end talks. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, making any disruption a significant geopolitical risk factor for energy markets and risk-sensitive currencies. The confirmation of toll-free passage reduces near-term supply disruption fears, easing pressure on crude oil prices and supporting risk appetite across forex markets. For traders, diminished Hormuz risk could weigh on safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF while supporting commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and CAD. However, the conditional nature of Trump's statement — threatening to end negotiations if Iran's assurances prove false — introduces lingering uncertainty that traders should monitor closely in the sessions ahead.
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