USD/CAD & Oil Surge as Trump Reimposes Iran Sanctions; CHF Leads FX

WTI crude oil surged $3.45 (5.0%) to $72.00 after the US Treasury revoked the June 21 Iran oil sanctions waiver, tightening global supply expectations and sending ripples across forex markets. The Swiss franc led G10 currencies, while the US dollar saw mixed performance amid competing forces. The New York Fed survey showed one-year inflation expectations hitting their highest level since 2023, reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures. Fed's Williams maintained an optimistic outlook, projecting steady trend-like growth for the US economy. On the data front, the US trade deficit narrowed slightly to -$77.6B versus the -$78.5B estimate, while Canada posted a stronger-than-expected trade surplus of $4.24B versus $2.85B expected, providing support for the Canadian dollar. The S&P 500 declined 0.4%, gold dropped $49 to $3,114, and US 10-year yields rose 7 bps to 4.55%. Geopolitical developments included Trump's comments suggesting progress on Ukraine war settlement. Traders should monitor oil-sensitive pairs like USD/CAD and watch for further inflation data that could influence Fed rate expectations.