Oil Steadies as Iran-US Tensions Ease, USD and Risk Assets Stabilize

Crude oil prices and related forex pairs are finding stability as Iran's strategy of leveraging control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be yielding diplomatic results. After US President Trump declared the ceasefire deal 'over' earlier this week, markets initially feared a major escalation that would disrupt global oil flows. However, Trump subsequently signaled willingness to de-escalate by suggesting Iran wants to negotiate, a pattern traders have seen before. Citi maintains a $75 Brent base case for Q3, anticipating a potential US-Iran deal and reopening of the Hormuz strait. The de-escalation narrative has eased safe-haven demand for CHF and JPY while supporting risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and CAD. Oil-linked pairs such as USD/CAD are watching crude closely for directional cues. Key resistance for Brent remains near $80, with support around $72. Traders should monitor weekend headlines for any military escalation that could rapidly shift sentiment and trigger gap openings in oil-correlated forex pairs on Monday.