NZD/USD & AUD/USD Eye NZ QSBO Survey, China Trade Data Tuesday

Tuesday's Asian session brings two data releases with potential implications for NZD and commodity-linked currencies. The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is due, with particular focus on the composition of responses rather than the headline number. The survey window straddled the mid-June ceasefire, meaning early versus late responses could reveal a split in business confidence that would carry significant weight for the RBNZ's policy deliberations. A divergence between early pessimism and late optimism would signal an improving trajectory, while uniform weakness would reinforce expectations of further easing. China's trade data is also scheduled, with imports and exports figures set to test the broader recovery narrative across Asia-Pacific economies. Strong Chinese import demand would be supportive for AUD and NZD given both nations' trade exposure to China. Traders should watch for any surprise deviation in China's trade surplus, as it could trigger moves in AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Key NZD/USD support sits near recent lows, with resistance defined by last week's highs.