USD in focus as Warsh's Jackson Hole debut, NFP revisions and sticky inflation loom

Currency markets traded cautiously ahead of a dense US event calendar headlined by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's debut Jackson Hole address, the annual Non-Farm Payrolls benchmark revisions and persistently sticky inflation data. The combination places the dollar at the centre of near-term price action across EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, with positioning skewed toward reduced expectations of policy easing. Warsh's tone is the key variable: an emphasis on restoring price stability would reinforce the recent rise in short-dated Treasury yields and extend dollar strength, particularly against the low-yielding yen and Swiss franc. Downward benchmark revisions to payrolls would complicate that narrative by pointing to a softer labour market than previously reported, potentially capping dollar upside. Sticky inflation readings, meanwhile, argue against any near-term cut and keep real yields elevated, a headwind for gold and high-beta currencies such as AUD/USD. Traders should expect elevated intraday volatility around the speech and data releases, with liquidity thinning into month-end. Range breaks driven by headlines may require confirmation before establishing directional exposure.