EUR/USD Holds Firm as Eurozone Resilience Offsets Oil Supply Shock

EUR/USD is showing resilience despite oil supply disruptions that have raised input costs across the euro area, according to QCAM Currency Asset Management's Q3 2026 outlook. The eurozone economy has absorbed the energy shock better than feared, with business sentiment surveys improving and pointing to stabilising activity rather than the contraction many had priced in. That improvement is a supportive factor for the euro, as it reduces the case for aggressive European Central Bank easing and keeps the EUR/USD rate differential from widening further in the dollar's favour. Higher oil prices remain a two-sided risk for the pair: they weigh on the euro area's terms of trade as a net energy importer, but they also feed headline inflation, which could delay ECB rate cuts. Traders should monitor eurozone PMI releases, ZEW and Ifo sentiment gauges, and crude benchmarks for direction. A continued recovery in business confidence alongside firm energy prices would favour EUR/USD upside, while renewed growth weakness would revive downside pressure.