Eamonn Jaffers from CNBC spoke with Trump. Some comments: I don't care if negotiations are over with Iran. I really don't care.
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar received a bullish boost as the ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to its highest reading since May 2022, coming in above the prior month's 52.7 and marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion. Key internals painted a positive picture: new orders jumped to 56.8 from 54.1, production rose to 54.3 from 53.4, and new export orders returned to expansion territory at 50.6 versus 47.9 prior. Employment improved to 48.6 from 46.4, though it remains in contraction. Prices paid eased slightly to 82.1 from 84.6, offering marginal relief on the inflation front but still elevated. The robust manufacturing data supports the case for the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, potentially delaying rate cuts further into 2026. For USD pairs, this data reinforces near-term dollar strength, particularly against lower-yielding currencies. Traders should note, however, that the headline figure may overstate momentum, and upcoming employment and inflation reports will be critical for confirming the trend.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures edged higher in early trading, supported by continued AI-sector euphoria led by Nvidia's strong performance and a bounce in crude oil prices. The risk-on tone in equity markets has implications for forex positioning, as the dollar index held steady amid competing forces. Rising oil prices typically benefit commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK, while risk-on sentiment tends to weigh on traditional safe havens like JPY and CHF. The Nvidia-driven tech rally underscores persistent appetite for risk assets, which may limit demand for the dollar as a safe haven in the near term. However, strong US economic fundamentals continue to provide a floor for the greenback. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk appetite as oil volatility and equity momentum develop throughout the session. Key pairs to monitor include USD/CAD, where oil dynamics play a direct role, and USD/JPY, where risk sentiment and yield differentials remain the primary drivers.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY remains in focus as the Japanese yen faces renewed selling pressure amid shifting macro dynamics. The pair continues to trade at elevated levels, with the divergence between Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policies serving as the primary driver. While the Fed maintains a restrictive stance supported by strong US economic data, the BoJ has been cautious in normalizing policy, keeping Japanese yields relatively low and the yen weak. Technical analysis suggests key resistance lies near recent highs, with a breakout potentially opening the door for further yen depreciation. Support is seen at prior consolidation zones, where intervention risk from Japanese authorities historically increases. Gold (XAU/USD) and EUR/USD were also referenced in the broader analysis, reflecting cross-asset correlations that influence yen positioning. Traders should remain alert to BoJ commentary and any signals of potential currency intervention, which could trigger sharp reversals. Near-term volatility in USD/JPY is expected to remain elevated as markets digest competing policy signals.
USDJPY
EURUSD
JPYUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey for April revealed that long-term inflation expectations remained largely unchanged, providing a neutral signal for EUR/USD traders. One-year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.0%, while three-year-ahead expectations edged slightly lower to 2.9% from 3.0% prior. Five-year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 2.4%, suggesting consumers see inflation gradually converging toward the ECB's 2% target over the longer term. Notably, perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 4.0% from 3.5% in March, indicating consumers feel current price pressures more acutely even as forward-looking expectations remain anchored. For the ECB, stable long-term expectations reduce urgency for aggressive policy tightening, potentially limiting upside for the euro. The anchored expectations support the narrative that the ECB may hold rates steady or proceed cautiously with any adjustments. Traders should monitor upcoming Eurozone CPI releases and ECB commentary for further directional cues on EUR/USD, with the data unlikely to shift near-term monetary policy expectations significantly.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is positioning for a firmer base, signaling potential headwinds for major pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP. Broad dollar strength appears to be building as traders reassess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory amid resilient US economic data. The euro and British pound are both under pressure, with EUR/USD testing key support zones as the greenback gains traction. GBP/USD is similarly vulnerable, with the cross-pair EUR/GBP reflecting relative dynamics between the two European currencies. Technical indicators on the DXY suggest the index is consolidating above recent support levels, with a potential breakout higher if upcoming US data continues to outperform expectations. Traders should monitor near-term resistance on the dollar index as well as support levels on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for confirmation of directional bias. The strengthening dollar narrative could intensify if risk sentiment deteriorates further, making dollar-long positioning an increasingly popular trade heading into the new trading week.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Traders are increasingly adopting a long bias in WTI crude oil, buying on pullbacks as energy market sentiment strengthens, with implications rippling across forex and commodity markets. USD/JPY remains a key pair to watch as rising oil prices tend to support the dollar through improved risk appetite and inflation expectations, while the Japanese yen faces pressure from the Bank of Japan's accommodative stance. Gold (XAU/USD) is also in focus, as the precious metal typically moves inversely to dollar strength, and traders are balancing safe-haven demand against a firmer greenback. The S&P 500 and major equities, including NVIDIA, are reflecting broader risk-on sentiment that further supports USD positioning. Technical levels on USD/JPY suggest consolidation near recent highs, with traders watching for a breakout driven by energy price momentum or shifts in Federal Reserve rate expectations. Oil-correlated currencies such as CAD may also see indirect effects from the bullish WTI positioning, making cross-pair dynamics worth monitoring in the sessions ahead.
USDJPY
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are creating ripple effects across forex markets as US Secretary of State Rubio intensifies diplomatic efforts to broker a Lebanon ceasefire. Washington has engaged both Lebanon's president and Israeli PM Netanyahu over the past 48 hours, proposing a sequenced deal where Hezbollah ceases attacks on Israel in exchange for Israel refraining from further escalation in Beirut. However, the US claims Hezbollah has blocked progress on Tehran's orders, raising the risk of prolonged regional instability. The Israeli shekel faces potential volatility as unresolved conflict dynamics weigh on risk sentiment, while the US dollar could see safe-haven inflows if tensions escalate further. Oil prices remain a key transmission mechanism, with any disruption concerns likely to pressure commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while supporting crude-correlated flows. Traders should monitor developments closely, as a breakdown in negotiations could trigger risk-off moves benefiting JPY and CHF, while a surprise ceasefire agreement would likely boost risk appetite and weigh on traditional safe havens.
USDILS
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
