Data from New Zealand, Japan and Australia due today. None of this is likely to move around financial markets too much upn release. Instead, to day will be spent waiting on the FOMC and specualting about the nuanaces around the expected on hold decision.
Source: Finnhub
Market Analysis by covering: Euro US Dollar, US Dollar Index Futures, Brent Oil Futures, Brent Spot US Dollar. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
EURUSD
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar received a supportive signal as the Treasury Department successfully sold $13 billion in 20-year bonds at a high yield of 4.927%, stopping through the when-issued level of 4.937% by 1.0 basis points. This negative tail significantly outperformed the average of -0.1 basis points, indicating robust demand. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.75x versus the 2.65x average, further underscoring strong appetite for US government debt. International buyers were the standout participants, absorbing 73.2% of the issuance compared to the 64.9% average, effectively crowding out domestic direct bidders who took just 19.9% versus their 24.3% norm. Dealers were left with only 8.5% against a 10.8% average, a bullish sign of end-user demand. The auction earned an A- grade overall. For forex traders, the strong foreign demand at elevated yields supports dollar sentiment, as global capital flows into US fixed income reinforce USD buying pressure. Key pairs to watch include EUR/USD and USD/JPY, where Treasury yield dynamics often drive short-term directional moves.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD remains confined within a tight trading range following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. The pair showed limited reaction to the announcement, with price action stuck within a well-defined cluster of key technical levels. The RBA reiterated that both headline and underlying inflation remain above the central bank's target band, while acknowledging elevated uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook. Policymakers specifically flagged ongoing Middle East tensions and their potential impact on global energy prices as a key risk factor. Notably, some of the more hawkish language from previous statements was softened, suggesting policymakers may be edging closer to a more neutral stance. From a technical perspective, the pair remains trapped between established support and resistance zones, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish clear directional control. Traders should watch for a decisive breakout from the current consolidation range for the next directional signal, with the upcoming FOMC decision likely to serve as a potential catalyst.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The S&P 500 traded in a muted fashion on Monday as market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of two major catalysts: details surrounding a potential US-Iran deal and the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision. The US Dollar Index futures remained relatively steady as traders assessed the geopolitical implications of the Iran negotiations, which could significantly impact crude oil markets and, by extension, broader risk sentiment and dollar dynamics. Both Brent and WTI crude oil futures remained in focus, with any resolution in US-Iran tensions potentially triggering a decline in energy prices and easing inflationary pressures. This scenario could influence the Federal Reserve's rate calculus under new Chair Kevin Warsh's leadership. Market participants are largely sidelined, unwilling to establish significant positions ahead of the FOMC statement. The interplay between geopolitical developments and monetary policy direction is expected to define near-term price action across forex and equity markets, with the dollar particularly sensitive to both outcomes.
USDX
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD held relatively stable following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep rates on hold, with the central bank adopting a balanced and even-handed tone in its accompanying statement. The RBA acknowledged that while inflation remains above target, progress toward the inflation objective continues. The central bank refrained from providing explicit forward guidance on the direction of its next move, maintaining optionality for both rate cuts and hikes depending on incoming data. The Australian dollar showed modest firmness post-announcement, as the lack of dovish surprises provided a mild floor for the currency. The US Dollar Index futures were also referenced in the context of broader market positioning ahead of the FOMC decision later this week. For AUD/USD traders, the RBA's neutral posture suggests the pair will likely take its cues from external factors, particularly US monetary policy developments and risk sentiment shifts. Near-term direction will hinge on the FOMC outcome and any surprises in US economic data releases.
AUDUSD
USDX
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The recent equity rally paused on Monday as investor attention shifted squarely to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which marks the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The cautious tone across risk assets weighed on sentiment-sensitive currencies while providing a modest bid to safe-haven flows. Market participants are keenly focused on Warsh's inaugural policy statement and press conference for clues about the Fed's future rate trajectory and any shifts in communication style compared to his predecessor. The dollar maintained a holding pattern as traders refrained from building directional positions ahead of the decision. Any hawkish surprises from Warsh could strengthen the greenback broadly, particularly against risk-correlated currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars. Conversely, dovish signals could reignite the equity rally and weigh on USD crosses. Volatility is expected to spike around the announcement, making risk management crucial for forex traders holding positions through the event.
USDX
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD traded in a consolidative range during the European session as the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations. The decision marks a pause after three consecutive rate hikes earlier in 2026, with policymakers opting to assess the lagged effects of prior tightening on consumer demand, housing activity, and inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, crude oil prices extended their losses as the US lifted its naval blockade in the Middle East, easing supply disruption fears and removing a key risk premium from energy markets. The decline in oil prices typically weighs on commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar, but the RBA's hawkish tightening cycle has provided underlying support. Traders are now watching for upcoming Australian employment data and inflation prints to gauge whether the RBA will resume hiking or shift toward a prolonged hold. Near-term support for AUD/USD sits near the 0.6600 handle, while resistance is seen around 0.6680. The interplay between falling oil prices and a still-hawkish RBA stance creates a mixed outlook for the pair.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY maintained its position above the psychologically significant 160 level following the Bank of Japan's latest rate hike, while AUD/USD firmed modestly after the RBA's decision to pause its tightening cycle. The BOJ's rate increase, while anticipated, did little to reverse the yen's persistent weakness, with USD/JPY holding elevated as the wide US-Japan interest rate differential continues to support the pair. The 160 handle remains a critical level to watch, with Japanese authorities potentially on intervention alert should the pair push significantly higher. Meanwhile, AUD/USD benefited from the RBA's steady hand, with the central bank's balanced tone preventing any downside follow-through. EUR/USD and USD/CAD were also in focus as traders positioned ahead of the pivotal FOMC decision. The divergence in central bank policy paths remains the dominant theme, with the Fed's stance under new Chair Warsh set to recalibrate expectations across major pairs. Support for USD/JPY sits near 159.50, while AUD/USD resistance lies at the top of its recent consolidation range.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
EURUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index showed notable resilience during Monday's session, shrugging off a sharp sell-off in crude oil prices that typically pressures the greenback through shifting risk sentiment channels. WTI crude futures extended losses as geopolitical tensions eased following the US decision to lift its naval blockade, reducing the energy supply risk premium. Despite the oil decline, the dollar maintained its footing against major counterparts, with USD/JPY holding firm as yield differentials between US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds continued to favor the greenback. EUR/USD remained under modest pressure as traders weighed the diverging monetary policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The dollar's ability to withstand the commodity downturn suggests underlying demand driven by relative economic outperformance and carry trade dynamics. Key resistance for the Dollar Index sits near the recent highs, while support is anchored around the 104.50 area. Traders should monitor upcoming US retail sales and Fed commentary for directional cues on dollar positioning this week.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is positioning for potential upside as analysts highlight the euro as a primary beneficiary of de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. The easing of geopolitical risks, underscored by the US lifting its naval blockade, has triggered a sharp decline in WTI crude oil futures, which directly benefits the energy-importing Eurozone economy. Lower oil prices reduce the bloc's import bill, improve its terms of trade, and alleviate inflationary pressures, potentially giving the European Central Bank more flexibility in its policy trajectory. The euro has historically outperformed during periods of declining energy costs, as the Eurozone's structural reliance on imported energy makes it acutely sensitive to oil price swings. EUR/USD faces immediate resistance near the 1.0900 psychological level, with a sustained break potentially opening the path toward 1.0950. Support is seen around 1.0820. Traders should watch for confirmation through Eurozone sentiment indicators and any ECB commentary reflecting improved economic conditions. The fundamental backdrop increasingly favors euro strength if the peace narrative holds.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD appears to be in the final stages of its corrective downtrend according to Elliott Wave technical analysis, suggesting cable may be approaching a significant inflection point. The pair has been under sustained selling pressure as bearish wave structures have dominated price action in recent sessions. Elliott Wave practitioners identify the current move as a terminal wave within the broader corrective pattern, implying that downside momentum is likely exhausting. Key support levels are being closely monitored for signs of a wave completion and potential bullish reversal. Traders should watch for classic reversal signals such as bullish divergence on momentum oscillators and candlestick patterns near critical support zones. A confirmed end to the downtrend could open the door for a meaningful recovery rally in GBP/USD. However, until wave completion is validated by a break above near-term resistance, the bearish bias technically remains intact. Risk management is essential as false bottoms can occur before the final low is established. Upcoming UK and US economic data releases could serve as catalysts for the anticipated trend shift.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY faces bearish pressure following the Bank of Japan's widely expected 25 basis point rate hike, bringing its policy rate to 1.0% — the highest level in decades. The BOJ simultaneously announced a pause in its bond tapering program effective April 2027, while flagging ongoing inflation overshoot risks, signaling a more hawkish stance that could support further yen strength. In broader Asia-Pacific developments, mixed Chinese data weighed on risk sentiment: industrial output beat expectations at +4.5% y/y, but retail sales posted their first decline since 2022, while house prices fell -3.5% y/y. On the commodities front, Goldman Sachs cut its Brent crude forecast to $80 for 2026 and $75 for 2027 amid a potential Hormuz deal, with oil prices tracking toward the $60s — a development that could weigh on commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD. Traders should monitor the BOJ vote split details and any July forward guidance signals, as these could determine whether USD/JPY breaks through near-term support levels. The divergence between a tightening BOJ and other major central banks remains a key theme for yen crosses.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD faces renewed downside pressure following disappointing Chinese economic data that raises concerns about the health of Australia's largest trading partner. China's May retail sales contracted for the first time since December 2022, significantly missing expectations and signaling a deepening domestic demand problem that government stimulus measures have failed to address. While industrial output beat forecasts, fixed asset investment declined more than twice as fast as anticipated, compounding the bearish outlook for commodity-linked currencies. The data paints an increasingly uncomfortable picture for the Chinese growth narrative, with trade-in schemes and holiday spending proving insufficient to revive consumer activity. The Australian dollar, highly sensitive to Chinese economic performance due to commodity export reliance, is likely to face headwinds alongside the New Zealand dollar and broader risk sentiment. Traders should monitor USD/CNH for further yuan weakness signals, while AUD/USD support levels come into focus. The People's Bank of China may face growing pressure to deploy additional monetary easing measures, which could further weigh on CNH crosses in the near term.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
