USD/IRR in Focus: Iran-US MoU Draft Unfinalized, Sanctions Relief Uncertain

Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on USD-related pairs as Iranian media reports that the memorandum of understanding draft between Iran and the US remains unfinalized. The draft reportedly includes sweeping US commitments: lifting oil sanctions, releasing Iran's frozen funds, withdrawing military forces from the region, canceling the naval blockade, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Final negotiations would then shift to nuclear and economic issues, notably excluding Iran's missile programme. Market analysts view these demands as highly ambitious and unlikely to be fully accepted by the US side, suggesting prolonged uncertainty. Oil-sensitive currencies such as CAD and NOK could see increased volatility if sanctions relief materializes, potentially pushing crude prices lower. USD/CAD traders should monitor developments closely, as any easing of Iranian oil sanctions would increase global supply and pressure crude benchmarks. Near-term, the dollar may see safe-haven flows if negotiations stall, while a breakthrough could weigh on USD strength as risk appetite improves across commodity-linked currencies.