USD/CNH: low hopes for Trump-Xi meeting as Busan trade truce extension looms
Both the US and China are signalling modest ambitions for this week's meeting between President Trump and President Xi. The source reports no price move, pip figure or technical levels for USD/CNH or other pairs. With expectations low, markets are unlikely to see a major trade breakthrough. That reduces the odds of a sharp risk-on move tied specifically to US-China relations. However, the Busan trade truce, which is due to expire in November, is expected to be extended. An extension would remove a near-term tail risk: the return of triple-digit tariffs and disrupted access to rare earths. Both of those weighed heavily on bilateral trade last year. For traders, the meeting looks more likely to reduce downside risk than to trigger a new directional move in US-China-sensitive currencies.
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