While the data is not really the focus there is some big news expected from Chinese wholesale inflation data for March. China’s prolonged battle with deflation may be nearing a turning point, with early signs suggesting a return to positive price growth across key indicators.
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical risk premiums are surging across forex and commodity markets as Iran's president reaffirms that the ceasefire agreement has been violated, with negotiations reportedly pushed to tomorrow. The critical development centers on the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping data shows only one oil tanker has passed through in the past 24 hours, effectively creating a near-blockade of the world's most important oil chokepoint. Approximately 20% of global oil supply transits through the strait, and any sustained disruption would send crude prices sharply higher. This environment favors commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar (CAD) and Norwegian krone (NOK), while risk-sensitive pairs face pressure. USD/CAD is likely seeing downward pressure as oil strength boosts CAD, while safe-haven flows into USD, JPY, and CHF are intensifying. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for a potential test of lower support levels if oil continues rallying. USD/JPY may also see downside pressure as yen safe-haven demand increases. Volatility is expected to remain elevated until clarity emerges from tomorrow's negotiations.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
European currencies strengthened against the US dollar as markets reacted to reports of a temporary ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran.
GBPUSD
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is trading on a defensive footing as markets adopt a cautious stance following signs that the fragile US-Iran ceasefire could collapse at any moment. After a brief optimistic rally in the prior session, risk appetite has faded sharply, with traders moving toward traditional safe havens including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. USD/JPY is under pressure as geopolitical uncertainty weighs on sentiment, while EUR/USD holds steady amid the broader dollar softness. The precarious diplomatic situation has injected fresh volatility into currency markets, with traders reluctant to build significant positions in either direction. Market participants are closely monitoring headlines from both Washington and Tehran for any escalation signals. Near-term, the dollar index faces support around recent lows, while resistance remains capped by risk-off flows. Traders should expect elevated volatility and widening spreads, particularly in JPY and CHF crosses, as the situation remains fluid and headline-driven price action dominates the session.
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Japan is reportedly considering releasing approximately 20 days' worth of additional oil from its strategic reserves, potentially as early as May, according to sources familiar with the matter. This move follows two earlier stages of reserve releases last month, signaling Tokyo's continued efforts to manage energy costs and stabilize domestic inflation pressures. For USD/JPY traders, the development carries mixed implications. Lower energy import costs could reduce Japan's trade deficit, providing structural support for the yen, while also easing inflationary pressures that have kept the Bank of Japan cautious on further rate normalization. On the commodities front, additional supply from Japan's reserves could exert modest downward pressure on crude oil prices, which indirectly affects commodity-linked currencies such as CAD. Traders should monitor whether this coordinated release is part of a broader international effort to manage oil prices. Near-term, USD/JPY may see slight yen strength on improved trade balance expectations, though the magnitude will depend on global oil market conditions and broader risk sentiment.
USDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Oil prices are climbing as the US-Iran ceasefire rapidly unravels, with Iran accusing the US of violations while President Trump has threatened to impose 50% tariffs, intensifying geopolitical risk across global markets. The surge in crude is providing a tailwind for commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, putting downward pressure on USD/CAD. Meanwhile, safe-haven flows are boosting JPY and CHF demand, with USD/JPY trending lower amid broad risk aversion. The dual shock of escalating Middle East tensions and aggressive tariff rhetoric has rattled energy markets and heightened fears of supply disruptions. WTI crude has advanced notably, supporting CAD strength against the greenback. Traders should watch for further developments in US-Iran diplomacy and any concrete tariff implementation details, as either could trigger sharp directional moves. Key USD/CAD support sits near recent lows, while resistance aligns with pre-escalation levels. Elevated volatility is expected across oil-sensitive and safe-haven currency pairs in the near term.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD faces heightened volatility as escalating tensions within NATO raise questions about the future of the transatlantic alliance and broader geopolitical stability. President Trump publicly criticized NATO allies following a meeting with Secretary General Rutte, accusing members of insufficient support for US operations related to the Iran conflict. Reports of potential US troop redeployments from Europe, combined with Spain reportedly limiting airspace access for US operations, have intensified concerns over alliance cohesion. The US dollar is experiencing mixed flows as safe-haven demand competes with growing uncertainty over US foreign policy direction and fiscal implications of ongoing military engagements. European currencies, particularly the euro and the Swiss franc, may see defensive positioning as traders assess whether NATO fragmentation could lead to increased European defense spending—a potential fiscal stimulus for the eurozone. The Greenland tensions add another layer of USD/DKK and broader Scandinavian currency risk. Traders should monitor upcoming NATO communiqués and any formal US policy shifts, as further deterioration in alliance unity could trigger sustained EUR/USD upside pressure toward key resistance levels while boosting CHF demand.
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDDKK
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
