US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimateUS February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expectedCanada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expectedTrump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down.
USD
GBP
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faces a unique volatility scenario as the March non-farm payrolls report is scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday, April 3rd — a day when the NYSE stock market is closed. This rare calendar collision creates an unusual trading environment where forex markets, which operate 24 hours, will still be active while equity markets remain shuttered. The bond market closes early at noon ET, and CME futures markets maintain abbreviated schedules. With reduced liquidity across multiple asset classes, USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY could experience exaggerated price swings in response to the employment data. Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday nearly every year since 1864, making it the only stock market holiday that is not also a federal holiday. Traders should exercise caution as thinner market conditions may amplify moves in either direction following the jobs data. Positioning ahead of the release is critical, as the lack of equity market participation could distort typical correlations between stocks and forex.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
There's no clear indication of a forthcoming de-escalation from Trump, which brings the stagflation risk narrative back to the forefront again. How do the markets react? Risk-off mode.
AUDUSD
Source: Marketaux
Switzerland's March CPI printed at +0.3% year-over-year, significantly undershooting the +0.5% consensus and rising only modestly from the prior +0.1% reading. The monthly CPI figure also disappointed at +0.2% versus the +0.5% expected, while core CPI held steady at +0.4% year-over-year. The softer-than-anticipated inflation data reinforces the Swiss National Bank's dovish positioning and raises the probability of further rate cuts, as price pressures remain notably subdued even amid surging energy costs that have driven inflation higher elsewhere, particularly in the Eurozone. The muted inflation response highlights Switzerland's structural resilience to energy price shocks compared to its European peers. For USD/CHF traders, the data is CHF-negative, as weaker inflation reduces the urgency for the SNB to maintain or tighten policy. EUR/CHF may also see upward pressure given the divergence in inflation dynamics between Switzerland and the Eurozone. Near-term, traders should monitor SNB commentary for confirmation of a continued accommodative stance, which could extend Swiss franc weakness across major pairs.
USDCHF
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Gulf states are actively exploring new pipeline routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas exports, according to a Financial Times report citing officials and industry executives. The move comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions with Iran, which maintains strategic influence over the critical waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits daily. While pipeline infrastructure already exists across the region, expanded capacity could gradually shift risk premiums currently embedded in crude oil prices and, by extension, commodity-linked currencies. CAD, NOK, and other petro-currencies may see reduced volatility tied to Hormuz disruption fears if projects materialize. In the near term, crude oil prices could face modest downward pressure on expectations of diversified export routes, potentially weighing on USD/CAD dynamics where Canadian dollar strength often correlates with oil price movements. However, these pipeline projects would take years to complete, limiting immediate forex impact. Traders should monitor developments for longer-term positioning in oil-sensitive pairs such as USD/CAD and USD/NOK.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is showing significant technical weakness after failing to sustain its rally to April 2024 highs during a mid-March crude oil spike. The pair's inability to hold above prior resistance levels has coincided with a bearish RSI divergence on higher timeframes, a classic signal that upward momentum is fading despite price attempts at new highs. This divergence suggests that buyers are losing conviction, and the pair may be vulnerable to a deeper pullback. The mid-March bounce was largely driven by a temporary crude oil price surge, which briefly supported dollar strength through risk-on flows, but that catalyst has since dissipated. From a fundamental perspective, the Bank of Japan's gradual normalization path continues to provide underlying yen support, while Federal Reserve rate expectations remain data-dependent. Key technical support sits near the 50-day moving average, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward the 200-day moving average. Traders should watch for confirmation of the bearish divergence with a decisive close below recent consolidation lows before committing to short positions.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar held relatively steady following President Trump's address, which reiterated a 2-3 week timeline for intensified action against Iran but stopped short of announcing a ground war or any withdrawal from the conflict. Markets had priced in the possibility of a pullout announcement over the prior two sessions, driving significant volatility in USD pairs, but the lack of new information left positioning largely unchanged. The speech, described as lengthy and lacking substantive policy updates, confirmed the administration's intent to 'hit Iran very hard' within the stated timeframe, maintaining geopolitical uncertainty as a key driver for safe-haven flows. USD/JPY and USD/CHF remain sensitive to further developments, with traders closely monitoring any escalation that could trigger risk-off moves. The DXY index is consolidating near recent levels as markets digest the status quo. Traders should watch for follow-up policy announcements and any shift in the conflict timeline, which could rapidly move haven currencies and oil-linked pairs such as USD/CAD.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
