EUR/USD Eyes ECB Rate Decision and Lagarde Press Conference Today

EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of today's pivotal ECB rate decision, where the central bank is unanimously expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Market attention will be squarely on ECB President Lagarde's press conference, as no updated macroeconomic projections are scheduled for this meeting. The ECB is expected to reiterate its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach while acknowledging the elevated uncertainty caused by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy prices and trade flows. Traders will parse Lagarde's language for any shifts in tone regarding inflation risks, particularly given rising oil prices from Middle East tensions, and the improving eurozone economic data highlighted by today's stronger French business confidence figures. EUR/USD has been trading within a defined range as markets await fresh policy signals. A hawkish tilt from Lagarde could push the pair toward resistance levels, while dovish commentary may trigger a move toward recent support. The decision is due in the final part of the European session, and volatility is expected to spike during the press conference.