USD, CHF and JPY bid as Houthis seize Bab el-Mandeb, oil supply routes at risk

Geopolitical risk premium is building across currency markets after Iran-backed Houthi forces completed their takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint through which roughly 10% of global trade passes. Combined with Iran's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, global energy flows now face pressure at both ends of the Arabian Peninsula, threatening the main export route out of the Persian Gulf as well as Red Sea shipments heading toward the Suez Canal. The dual bottleneck raises the risk of sustained upward pressure on crude oil and freight costs, which feeds directly into inflation expectations and complicates central bank policy paths. In FX, the environment typically favours traditional safe havens, with the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen attracting defensive flows, while energy-importing currencies such as EUR and JPY face terms-of-trade headwinds. Commodity-linked currencies including CAD and NOK may find relative support from higher crude prices. Traders should expect elevated volatility, wider spreads during headline-driven sessions, and a firmer gold bid as risk aversion persists while the shipping disruption remains unresolved.