The US Dollar Index declined 0.4% as broad-based weakness emerged across major pairs, with USD/CAD experiencing particularly sharp losses of 0.8% to 1.3620. Canadian economic data surprised to the upside, while disappointing US figures weighed on dollar sentiment. The AUD/USD pair gained 0.6% to 0.6580, benefiting from risk-on sentiment and commodity strength. NZD/USD advanced 0.5% to 0.6120, supported by improving global risk appetite. S&P 500 futures indicated a positive open, reinforcing the risk-on environment that typically pressures the safe-haven dollar. Technical indicators suggest USD/CAD has broken below key support at 1.3650, opening the path toward 1.3580. The broader dollar weakness reflects growing concerns about US economic momentum, with traders reassessing Fed rate expectations. Near-term dollar direction will depend heavily on upcoming US employment and inflation data releases.
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is trading flat against major currencies in early Asian sessions, with DXY holding near 104.50 as markets digest this week's choppy price action. EUR/USD remains range-bound around 1.0850, while GBP/USD hovers near 1.2650, reflecting minimal overnight movements of less than 0.1% across major pairs. The dollar's recent back-and-forth pattern continues after Tuesday's decline, suggesting traders are awaiting fresh catalysts ahead of European market open. Technical indicators point to consolidation, with the DXY trapped between 104.30 support and 104.70 resistance. Market participants are positioning cautiously ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting and Friday's US employment data, which could provide directional clarity. The lack of significant economic releases during Asian hours has contributed to the subdued volatility, with implied volatility measures for major pairs declining to multi-week lows.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CNH gained 0.15% to 7.2485 following China's Caixin Services PMI release for May, which came in at 51.1, marginally above the expected 51.0 and improving from April's 50.7. While the headline figure indicates continued expansion in the services sector, underlying data revealed concerning trends with new export business contracting for the first time since December. The mixed nature of the report has weakened yuan sentiment as foreign demand pressures emerge. Input costs accelerated to a seven-month high due to rising purchasing prices and labor costs, potentially signaling future inflationary pressures. Employment showed slight improvement, breaking a two-month contraction streak. Technical resistance for USD/CNH sits at 7.2550, with support at 7.2400. Traders should monitor upcoming Chinese trade data and any PBOC policy responses to gauge further yuan direction.
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Saudi Aramco's decision to lower July Arab Light crude prices to Asia by $0.20/barrel while raising Northwest Europe prices by $1.80/barrel signals diverging regional demand dynamics, impacting commodity currencies. The price cut to $1.20/barrel above Oman/Dubai average (down from $1.40 in June) reflects softer Asian demand outlook, potentially weighing on AUD/USD and NZD/USD given their correlation with Chinese growth expectations. Conversely, USD/CAD remains supported near 1.4350 as lower oil prices pressure the Canadian dollar, despite WTI holding above $73.50. The contrasting pricing strategy - cuts for Asian light/medium grades while maintaining Arab Heavy unchanged - suggests selective demand weakness rather than broad oversupply concerns. Traders should monitor the 1.4300 psychological support for USD/CAD, with a break potentially accelerating CAD weakness toward 1.4400.
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD consolidated around 1.4350 following the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain rates, citing persistent inflation concerns and potential US tariff threats under the Trump administration. The pause breaks the BoC's recent easing cycle, which had seen 175 basis points of cuts since June 2024, supporting the Canadian dollar despite ongoing economic headwinds. Markets had priced in a 15% probability of a cut, making the hold slightly hawkish for CAD. Governor Macklem emphasized monitoring core inflation metrics, currently running at 2.7% year-over-year, above the 2% target. The looming threat of US tariffs on Canadian exports adds another layer of uncertainty, potentially limiting BoC's flexibility for future cuts. Technical resistance sits at 1.4400, while support has formed at 1.4300. Traders await Friday's Canadian employment data and US NFP for directional clarity.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY experienced extreme volatility this week, with three consecutive 130-pip moves: dropping Monday, rebounding Tuesday, and falling again Wednesday to close around 149.20. The pair's dramatic swings mark a departure from its historically stable trading patterns. Wednesday's decline was triggered by disappointing US economic data, with ADP employment coming in below expectations and ISM Services PMI showing unexpected weakness. The selling pressure intensified during the US session as traders digested the data's implications for Federal Reserve policy. Technical indicators suggest the pair is testing key support at 149.00, with resistance now established at 150.50. The heightened volatility reflects growing uncertainty about US economic resilience and potential shifts in the Fed's monetary stance. Traders should prepare for continued choppy price action as markets reassess the dollar's strength amid mixed economic signals.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/RUB traded volatile around 92.50 levels following Russian President Putin's statement doubting ceasefire possibilities with Ukraine after recent attacks. The ruble weakened 0.8% against the dollar in early Moscow trading, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions. Market participants are pricing in increased risk of military escalation, which could prompt further capital outflows from Russian assets. The Central Bank of Russia's key rate at 16% continues to provide some support for the ruble, though geopolitical factors are dominating price action. Technical indicators show USD/RUB testing resistance at 93.00, with a break above potentially opening the path to 94.50. Support sits at 91.80, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Traders should prepare for increased volatility in emerging market currencies, particularly those with exposure to the region, as the situation develops.
USDRUB
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0500 as markets position for a trio of high-impact events: the anticipated Trump-Xi phone call, Thursday's ECB policy decision, and Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls. The pair has declined 0.2% this week amid dollar strength, with the DXY index climbing to 108.50 on expectations of maintained US tariff threats. The expected Trump-Xi dialogue could impact risk sentiment and dollar demand, particularly if trade tensions escalate. Markets price a 70% probability of a 25bp ECB rate cut to 2.75%, which could pressure EUR/USD below 1.0480 support. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, with the pair trading below its 50-day moving average at 1.0545. US NFP consensus expects 165K jobs added, with a stronger print potentially pushing EUR/USD toward 1.0450, while disappointment could trigger a relief rally toward 1.0550 resistance.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.75% as expected, adopting a cautious stance while assessing potential impacts from threatened US tariffs under the Trump administration. USD/CAD traded relatively stable around 1.4350 following the announcement, with the Canadian dollar finding support from the central bank's wait-and-see approach. The BoC highlighted concerns about trade policy uncertainty and its potential effects on Canadian economic growth and inflation dynamics. Markets are pricing in limited rate movement in the near term as policymakers navigate the complex trade environment. The decision reflects growing challenges for commodity-linked currencies facing protectionist pressures. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD consolidating within a 1.4300-1.4400 range, with a breakout likely dependent on concrete tariff developments. Traders should monitor US-Canada trade negotiations closely as any escalation could significantly impact the loonie's trajectory against the greenback.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD remained stable near 1.4350 following the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain interest rates at 2.75%, in line with market expectations. The Canadian dollar showed limited reaction as traders had already priced in the hold, with only a 26% probability of a cut anticipated. The central bank's statement maintained a cautious tone on inflation, suggesting rates may remain elevated through Q3 2025. Market focus now shifts to the July 30 BOC meeting, where economists see a higher probability of policy adjustment. Oil prices at $72.50/barrel are providing moderate support for CAD, offsetting some dollar strength. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD consolidating between 1.4320 support and 1.4380 resistance. A decisive break above resistance could target 1.4420, while failure to hold support may see a retest of 1.4280. The pair's direction will likely depend on upcoming Canadian employment data and oil price movements.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD traded in a tight range around 1.4340 ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision, with markets pricing a 26% chance of a 25bp cut from the current 2.75% rate. The low probability reflects mixed Canadian economic data, with inflation showing signs of persistence while growth remains subdued. Most economists expect the BOC to hold steady today while signaling potential easing at the July 30 meeting. The Canadian dollar has been supported by WTI crude oil holding above $72/barrel and relatively stable risk sentiment. Technical indicators show USD/CAD trapped between 1.4300 support and 1.4380 resistance. A hawkish hold could push the pair toward 1.4300, while any surprise cut would likely propel USD/CAD above 1.4400. Traders are positioning cautiously, with implied volatility rising ahead of the announcement. The decision's forward guidance will be crucial for determining CAD's trajectory through summer 2025.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD consolidated around 1.0520 during the European session, with minimal 0.1% movement as traders awaited clarity on US trade developments. The pair remained range-bound between 1.0500 support and 1.0540 resistance, reflecting market uncertainty over potential tariff implementations. European economic data was limited, with focus shifting to upcoming US trade policy announcements that could significantly impact dollar valuations. The euro found mild support from steady German industrial orders data, though broader eurozone growth concerns persist. Technical indicators suggest a neutral bias, with the 200-day moving average at 1.0510 acting as a pivot point. A break above 1.0540 could target 1.0580, while failure to hold 1.0500 may expose 1.0460. Traders remain cautious, evidenced by subdued volatility across major pairs. The lack of concrete trade policy details continues to limit directional conviction in forex markets.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar has weakened across major pairs as markets price in reduced trade war risks following the April 9 tariff pause. This de-escalation has shifted sentiment from recession fears to growth optimism, with soft economic data showing improvement. The dollar index dropped 0.2% as traders anticipate continued global growth recovery and persistent disinflation trends. Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD gained 0.3-0.4% against the greenback. Market participants are monitoring upcoming PMI releases and central bank communications for confirmation of the growth rebound. Technical indicators suggest the DXY faces resistance at 104.50, with support established at 103.80. The improved risk appetite could continue pressuring the dollar if global growth data maintains its positive trajectory, particularly benefiting commodity currencies and emerging market forex pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar retreated 0.15% during Asian and European sessions as risk appetite improved amid positive trade talk developments. Asian equities led the rally with the Nikkei up 1.2% and Shanghai Composite gaining 0.8%, pressuring safe-haven dollar demand. EUR/USD advanced to 1.0890, approaching the key 1.09 psychological resistance level. GBP/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.2745, while USD/JPY slipped 0.3% to 155.20 as yen strength emerged. European markets followed Asia's lead with DAX futures up 0.6%. The dollar index (DXY) fell to 104.25, testing support at the 50-day moving average. Traders are positioning for potential further dollar weakness if risk-on sentiment persists. Key levels to watch include EUR/USD resistance at 1.0900 and DXY support at 104.00, with breakthrough potentially accelerating the current moves.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD climbed 0.4% to 0.6520 despite Australia reporting disappointing GDP growth, as broad dollar weakness ahead of crucial tariff discussions provided support for the Aussie. The US dollar index fell 0.3% as markets positioned cautiously before high-stakes trade negotiations that could reshape global commerce flows. Australian GDP data showed slower-than-expected growth, but currency traders focused more on the greenback's vulnerability to trade policy uncertainty. Technical indicators point to immediate resistance at 0.6550, with support established at 0.6480. The pair's strength despite weak domestic data underscores how US policy concerns are currently dominating forex market sentiment. Risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD could see increased volatility as tariff talks progress. Traders should watch for any breakthrough or breakdown in negotiations, which could trigger sharp moves in commodity-linked currencies against the dollar.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD edged higher by 0.2% to 1.0875 during subdued European morning trading, with the dollar index declining 0.15% to 104.30. The move lacked significant catalysts, suggesting position adjustments ahead of key data releases. GBP/USD advanced modestly to 1.2730, while USD/JPY held steady near 155.50. Trading volumes remained below average with no major economic releases scheduled. The euro found support at the 1.0850 level, coinciding with the 20-day moving average. Dollar weakness appears technical rather than fundamental, with traders awaiting Thursday's ECB meeting minutes and Friday's US jobs data for clearer direction. Immediate resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.0890, while broader dollar weakness could push the pair toward 1.0920. The lack of volatility suggests consolidation phase continuing until fresh fundamental drivers emerge.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD declined 0.3% to 1.3655, testing critical support at the ascending trendline from March lows ahead of today's Bank of Canada rate decision. Markets price in 65% probability of a 25bp rate cut to 4.50%, which could accelerate CAD weakness if materialized. The pair has traded in a 1.3600-1.3750 range for three weeks, with current price action suggesting potential breakdown. Oil prices supported CAD with WTI crude up 0.8% to $76.40. Technical indicators show RSI at 45, indicating neutral momentum, while the 200-day MA at 1.3620 provides additional support. A dovish BoC could propel USD/CAD toward 1.3750 resistance, while a hawkish surprise might trigger a break below 1.3600. Traders should monitor the BoC's forward guidance on future cuts, particularly given Canada's cooling inflation and sluggish GDP growth.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD gained 0.15% to 1.0865 as Eurozone composite PMI data surprised to the upside, printing at 50.2 versus 49.5 preliminary estimates. The services PMI was revised higher to 49.7 from 48.9, though still below the expansion threshold of 50. While the data suggests marginal economic growth rather than contraction, underlying fundamentals remain weak with German demand particularly subdued. The euro found support as markets had positioned for worse readings, though gains remain limited given the economy is essentially stalling. Business confidence continues to lag amid ongoing uncertainty about ECB policy direction and regional growth prospects. Technical resistance sits at 1.0890, with support at 1.0840. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for policy hints, as the central bank balances persistent inflation concerns against weakening growth momentum.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD maintained its position near three-year highs at 1.2780, consolidating after last week's 1.2% rally driven by hawkish Bank of England expectations. The pound showed resilience despite softer UK manufacturing PMI at 51.2 versus 51.5 expected. Markets price in only 35bp of BoE rate cuts for 2025, supporting sterling's outperformance. The pair tested resistance at 1.2800 twice this week without breaking through, while support formed at 1.2750 (previous resistance turned support). UK wage growth remains elevated at 5.2% annually, reinforcing the BoE's cautious stance on rate cuts. Technical momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions with RSI at 72. A decisive break above 1.2800 could target 1.2850, while failure might trigger profit-taking toward 1.2700. Sterling's strength reflects diverging monetary policy expectations between the BoE and other major central banks.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained gains near 106.50 but momentum faded as doubts emerged over the implementation timeline of proposed tariffs. After rallying 1.2% last week on hawkish Fed expectations, the dollar's advance stalled as traders questioned whether trade measures would materialize as quickly as initially anticipated. Market positioning data shows leveraged funds remain net-long dollars, though conviction has weakened. The index faces resistance at 107.00, coinciding with the November 2024 high, while support sits at 106.20. EUR/USD traded sideways at 1.0520, while USD/JPY held 150.80 amid mixed risk sentiment. Aluminum prices rose 0.8% on supply concerns, providing slight headwinds for the dollar. Technical indicators suggest the DXY is overbought on daily timeframes, increasing the risk of a pullback toward 105.80. Traders await concrete policy announcements and this week's US economic data for fresh directional catalysts.
DXY
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux