ING expects the heavy tone in US Treasuries to persist as the tariff truce lapses, a dynamic that keeps long-end yields biased higher and complicates the dollar's recovery attempts. The latest TIC data showed headline foreign holdings of Treasuries declining, with Japan, the UK and China all trimming positions. The transaction picture was more mixed: one measure showed a modest $6.8 billion net inflow in June, while ING's TIC-based read pointed to roughly $72 billion of net liquidation by foreign holders, highlighting how measure-dependent and volatile this series has become month to month. For FX, reduced foreign appetite for Treasuries is a structural negative for USD, even if higher yields offer short-term carry support. Rising term premium alongside softening demand typically pressures USD/JPY funding flows and supports EUR/USD dips. Traders should watch the 10-year yield's response to any renewed trade friction, as a disorderly yield rise tends to weigh on the dollar rather than lift it, keeping EUR/USD and USD/JPY volatility elevated into upcoming US data.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
US equity indices closed lower with the S&P 500 and Dow leading declines of near 0.50%, as selling accelerated into the afternoon session. The catalysts were twofold: rising crude oil prices, which revived inflation concerns, and higher Treasury yields, which tightened financial conditions and pressured rate-sensitive sectors. For FX markets, the risk-off tone typically supports traditional safe havens, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF often catching bids on defensive flows, while commodity-linked currencies such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD face headwinds when equity breadth deteriorates. Firmer oil prices remain a relative positive for CAD, capping USD/CAD upside. The simultaneous rise in yields and drop in stocks suggests markets are repricing the inflation path rather than the growth path, a combination that historically favors the dollar against low-yielders on carry but limits broad USD gains against the euro. Traders should monitor whether equity weakness extends into follow-through selling, as a deeper correction would likely amplify yen demand and compress AUD/JPY and other risk-sensitive crosses in the near term.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
AUDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Sandisk shares continued their advance following last week's Investor Day, where management outlined an aggressive financial framework covering FY2028 through FY2030 and emphasized the longer-term growth opportunity tied to artificial intelligence. On the product side, the company expects AI inference workloads to materially increase demand for flash storage in data centers, a structural demand thesis that investors rewarded with follow-through buying. While the story is equity-specific, it feeds the broader AI capex theme that has underpinned global risk appetite in 2026. Sustained strength in semiconductor and storage names typically supports pro-cyclical currencies, with AUD/USD, NZD/USD and KRW-linked Asian FX benefiting from technology export optimism, while safe-haven demand for JPY and CHF tends to fade. Traders should note the divergence risk: equity leadership concentrated in AI names has not consistently translated into broad dollar direction, as US yields remain the dominant FX driver. Continued tech outperformance would keep AUD/JPY and other risk-sensitive crosses supported, but a rotation out of AI capex plays could quickly reverse those flows.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
AUDJPY
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The dollar's rebound against major currencies stalled last week after a slew of US economic releases dimmed expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. With rate hike probabilities pared back, the yield support that had been driving the greenback's recovery faded, allowing EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the commodity bloc to recoup earlier losses. The market's repricing reflects softer momentum in growth and inflation-sensitive indicators, shifting focus toward whether the Fed retains an extended pause rather than delivering additional hikes. For traders, the key implication is that dollar strength now requires an upside data surprise to be sustained, leaving rallies vulnerable to reversal. EUR/USD is likely to remain supported on dips while rate differentials narrow, and USD/JPY faces two-way risk as US yields consolidate. Attention turns to upcoming US consumer-facing data, including retail sales and sentiment readings, alongside Fed commentary for confirmation of the softer policy path. A further downgrade in hike expectations would extend the dollar's corrective phase, while firmer data could quickly restore the rebound narrative.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The dollar came under pressure at the start of the new week, with AUD/USD leading gains across the majors while the greenback lagged in European trading. Sentiment was steady overall, with European indices mostly a little higher and S&P 500 futures holding near flat, allowing risk-sensitive currencies to outperform. Chinese data disappointed: July retail sales missed expectations, industrial output growth slowed and new home prices extended their declines, with the statistics bureau attributing part of the softness to extreme weather conditions. The Australian dollar's resilience despite the soft China figures underscores that dollar weakness, rather than commodity demand optimism, was the dominant driver. Geopolitically, Iran reaffirmed that talks with the United States have not yet begun, keeping a modest risk premium in energy markets. With no major US releases on Monday, positioning dominated flows, though the week features a significant test of US consumer health. Traders should watch whether AUD/USD can sustain gains without confirmation from Chinese activity data, while EUR/USD upside remains dependent on continued softening in US yields.
AUDUSD
EURUSD
USDCNH
GBPUSD
USDJPY
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The yen edged higher against the dollar, pushing USD/JPY modestly lower, even after a clear miss in Japanese GDP data underscored soft domestic momentum. The move highlights that yen direction is currently dictated by US rate expectations rather than Japanese fundamentals. Fed funds futures now imply roughly a two-thirds probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates at next month's meeting, a repricing that has trimmed the US-Japan yield differential and lent the yen support. Notably, the GDP disappointment failed to generate meaningful yen selling, suggesting the market has largely discounted weak Japanese growth data and is focused instead on the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory and the Fed's next step. Gains remain modest and contained within the recent trading range, with no evidence of a decisive downside break in USD/JPY. Traders should treat this as consolidation rather than trend reversal until the pair clears the lower boundary of its range. Upcoming US data and Fed commentary remain the primary catalysts, while yen crosses such as EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY should track the same yield-differential dynamic.
USDJPY
EURJPY
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under broad selling pressure following a sharp 0.6% decline in retail sales, driving GBP/USD to 1.3560 and EUR/USD above the 1.15 handle. Consumer sentiment deteriorated to 51.0, reinforcing concerns about slowing economic momentum and prompting traders to scale back Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Gold surged toward $4,400 per ounce as the weakening dollar and reduced hawkish Fed pricing boosted safe-haven and alternative asset demand. The combination of soft consumption data and declining sentiment suggests the Fed may hold rates steady at upcoming meetings, further undermining dollar support. GBP/USD faces immediate resistance near the 1.3600 psychological level, while EUR/USD could target 1.1550 if dollar weakness persists. Support for GBP/USD sits around 1.3500, with EUR/USD finding a floor near 1.1480. Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation and employment data for further confirmation of the economic slowdown narrative. The dovish repricing of Fed expectations may continue to weigh on the greenback in the near term.
GBPUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has surged approximately 0.50% during Thursday's session, breaking through multiple key technical levels to reach its highest point since May 2026. The pair climbed decisively above the 100-hour moving average and the critical 50% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3503, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. The advance has also extended beyond the July high of 1.35573, establishing new multi-month highs and opening the door for further upside. The breakaway from the 50% Fibonacci retracement is a significant technical development, as this level had previously served as a resistance ceiling. Traders should now watch the 1.3503 level as potential support on any pullback, while the next resistance zone lies near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 range. With the price trading above both the moving average and the midpoint retracement, the technical bias remains firmly bullish. A sustained hold above the July high could attract additional buying pressure and momentum-driven flows toward higher targets.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Global market sentiment has turned cautious on Thursday as escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp spike in crude oil prices weigh on risk appetite across asset classes. The geopolitical uncertainty is driving demand for traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and US dollar, while commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies face headwinds. Rising crude oil prices are adding inflationary pressures, which could complicate central bank rate decisions in the near term, particularly for energy-importing economies. Mixed corporate earnings updates and forward guidance have further dampened investor confidence, contributing to the risk-off tone. Currency traders should monitor USD/JPY and USD/CHF for safe-haven flows, while pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD may face downward pressure in this environment. Oil-sensitive currencies such as the Canadian dollar could see increased volatility as energy markets react to the geopolitical developments. Near-term direction will depend on whether Middle East tensions escalate further or diplomatic efforts ease market concerns.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar edged lower during the European session amid a mixed market mood, with safe-haven gold staging a rebound. The greenback faced broad-based selling pressure as multiple macro developments weighed on sentiment. The Bank of Japan is reportedly preparing for a September rate hike with an accelerated pace of tightening, bolstering the yen and pressuring USD/JPY. In Europe, French inflation re-accelerated in July with core prices also moving higher, while German wholesale prices bounced back as energy tax cut effects lapsed — both factors supportive of a firmer euro. The Swiss economy posted solid quarterly growth of 1.5% in Q2, lending support to the franc. Meanwhile, China's new bank loans contracted again in July for the second time, signaling persistent economic weakness in the world's second-largest economy and dampening risk appetite. Bitcoin lost the critical $64,000 support level, adding to the cautious market tone. Traders should monitor upcoming US data releases and BOJ communications for further directional cues on dollar pairs.
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDCNY
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is seeing supportive flows during the Asia-Pacific session as President Trump announced new tariffs of up to 100% on drone imports, escalating trade tensions and boosting safe-haven demand for the greenback. Oil prices edged marginally higher on the news, reflecting concerns over potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risk premiums. The tariff announcement adds to an already protectionist trade agenda, which has historically supported USD strength against risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD, while weighing on commodity-linked pairs. The broader Asia-Pacific session saw muted price action, with markets digesting the implications of the latest trade policy escalation. Traders should monitor USD/CNH and AUD/USD for potential volatility as retaliatory measures from affected trading partners could materialize. Near-term, the dollar index may find support from sustained risk aversion, though prolonged trade conflicts could introduce stagflationary pressures that complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Key resistance for the DXY sits near recent highs, while commodity currencies face downside risk on deteriorating trade sentiment.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD faces renewed downside pressure as geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe intensified following Latvia's shootdown of a drone over its territory, marking a significant escalation beyond the routine alert-and-clear incidents seen throughout 2026. The event required a NATO air defence mission to neutralize the threat over sovereign NATO territory, raising concerns about broader regional destabilization along the Russia-NATO frontier. Safe-haven flows are likely to benefit the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen at the expense of the euro and other European currencies. Traders should monitor EUR/USD for potential tests of nearby support levels as risk sentiment deteriorates. EUR/CHF may also see selling pressure as Swiss franc demand increases on haven flows. The escalation adds a geopolitical risk premium to European assets and could weigh on ECB policy expectations if economic uncertainty deepens. Near-term, traders should watch for official NATO and EU responses, which could either calm markets or further amplify volatility across EUR pairs and broader risk assets.
EURUSD
EURCHF
EURJPY
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is navigating mixed signals after Fitch Ratings affirmed the United States' AA+ credit rating with a stable outlook, removing near-term sovereign downgrade risk. However, the accompanying commentary struck a cautious tone, with Fitch cutting its US GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.9%, citing a weakening labor market and slowing economic momentum. The downgraded growth outlook reinforces the dovish repricing already underway in Fed funds futures, as fixed income desks incorporate softer rate hike odds into their models. For USD pairs, the affirmation provides a floor of confidence in US creditworthiness, but the growth revision adds weight to the bearish dollar narrative building through the week. DXY traders should monitor upcoming employment data releases to confirm or challenge Fitch's labor market assessment. Near-term, the dollar may face headwinds against yield-sensitive currencies such as JPY and EUR if Treasury yields continue to drift lower on reduced tightening expectations. Traders should watch for any shift in Fed rhetoric that could amplify or counteract these dynamics.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD is ticking higher after a volatile session that saw the pair decline sharply from post-CPI highs near levels not seen since June 5. The pair had broken below critical technical levels, including the 100-hour moving average at 0.70598 and the 100-day moving average at 0.7055, with sellers pushing toward the 200-hour moving average at 0.7045. However, renewed risk-on sentiment across global markets has helped the pair stabilize and begin recovering lost ground. The reversal was supported by improved market appetite following in-line U.S. CPI data for July, which tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. Traders should monitor the 0.7055–0.7060 zone, where the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages converge as near-term resistance. A sustained break above this cluster could open the path back toward the recent highs above 0.7080. On the downside, the 200-hour moving average at 0.7045 remains key support. The interplay between risk sentiment and U.S. rate expectations will likely dictate near-term direction for the pair.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The U.S. dollar faced broad selling pressure as July's Consumer Price Index data came in line with market expectations, prompting traders to scale back bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The matched CPI readings removed a key catalyst for dollar bulls, as markets had been pricing in the possibility of hotter-than-expected inflation fueling additional monetary tightening. With rate hike expectations now ebbing, risk sentiment across global equity and currency markets improved meaningfully, benefiting risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and other commodity-linked pairs. The softer rate outlook weighed on U.S. Treasury yields, further undermining dollar demand. Traders are now recalibrating their positioning around the Fed's forward guidance, with upcoming employment data and Fed commentary likely to shape the next directional move. For dollar pairs, the shift in sentiment suggests near-term downside risk for the greenback, particularly against currencies where central banks maintain a relatively hawkish stance. Market participants should watch for follow-through in risk appetite as the key driver in the sessions ahead.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar remains tentative in post-CPI trading, failing to generate meaningful momentum following the latest US inflation data release. The Swiss franc leads among major currencies while the New Zealand dollar underperforms, reflecting a risk-cautious positioning across forex markets. UK GDP data came in line with expectations at +0.4% q/q for Q2, with June posting unexpected growth driven by a stronger services sector. Spanish inflation edged higher in July, with both headline and core prices increasing. WTI crude oil declined 2% to $81.58, while gold retreated from recent highs after US CPI data failed to provide an additional bullish catalyst. European equities traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures, suggesting modest risk appetite. Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium for further policy guidance from the Federal Reserve. The muted dollar reaction to CPI suggests traders are in a wait-and-see mode, with the Jackson Hole event likely to be the next major driver for USD pairs and broader forex sentiment.
USDCHF
NZDUSD
GBPUSD
EURUSD
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
A comprehensive survey conducted by Trading Technologies and Acuiti, covering 65 buy-side firms, reveals that 69% of respondents prioritize a unified real-time view of FX risk over cost savings when evaluating execution management system (EMS) consolidation. The findings highlight a significant shift in institutional priorities, as firms increasingly demand integrated platforms capable of providing holistic risk oversight across multiple currency pairs and trading venues. Despite this strong preference, migration risk remains a key barrier to adoption, with firms cautious about disrupting existing workflows and systems during transitions. The survey underscores growing demand for technology solutions that can aggregate risk data across asset classes and counterparties in real time. For forex traders, this institutional trend signals increasing sophistication in risk management practices, which could lead to more efficient price discovery and tighter spreads across major and cross currency pairs. The push toward EMS consolidation may also accelerate electronification of FX trading, potentially impacting liquidity dynamics and execution quality across the broader forex market.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Spain's final July CPI confirmed an acceleration to 3.6% year-over-year, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 3.5% and marking a notable increase from June's 3.2% reading. The harmonized index (HICP) also came in above expectations at 3.9% versus the 3.8% preliminary print, up from 3.6% previously. The uptick was largely driven by a renewed rise in petrol prices, adding to persistent core inflation pressures across the eurozone's fourth-largest economy. This data complicates the European Central Bank's policy calculus, as sticky inflation may delay anticipated rate cuts and support the euro in the near term. EUR/USD traders should monitor how this feeds into broader eurozone aggregate inflation data, as hotter-than-expected readings could reinforce hawkish ECB expectations. The divergence between softening US inflation and rising Spanish CPI creates a potential tailwind for the euro. Key technical levels to watch on EUR/USD include nearby resistance zones that could be tested if eurozone inflation surprises continue to the upside.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar showed muted price action following the release of July's Consumer Price Index data, which came in exactly at market expectations at 3.4% year-over-year. The in-line reading offered no significant surprises across key metrics, leaving traders with little fresh impetus to establish new directional positions. With inflation data now in the rearview mirror, market attention has firmly shifted to the upcoming Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where policymakers are expected to provide critical guidance on the future path of monetary policy. The lack of a CPI surprise has kept rate cut expectations largely unchanged, with markets continuing to price in the Fed's next moves based on the broader data trajectory. For USD pairs, the neutral CPI print suggests near-term consolidation as traders await clearer signals from Fed Chair Powell's anticipated Jackson Hole remarks. Key levels across major dollar pairs remain intact, and volatility is expected to pick up significantly once central bank commentary begins. Traders should monitor positioning heading into the symposium for potential breakout opportunities.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar lost momentum on Thursday after softer-than-expected US inflation data prompted traders to scale back bets on a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The dollar index treaded water as market participants reassessed the Fed's policy trajectory, with rate futures now reflecting diminished probability of further tightening. The benign CPI reading suggests that disinflationary trends are gaining traction in the US economy, reducing urgency for additional monetary restriction. This development weighs broadly on the greenback against major counterparts including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. Dollar weakness is particularly notable against the yen, where the interest rate differential narrative has been a key driver. Traders are now focused on upcoming Fed commentary and labor market data to gauge whether the central bank will maintain its current stance or signal a pivot toward easing. Near-term, the dollar faces downside risk if incoming data continues to support the disinflation narrative, potentially pushing USD pairs toward key support levels across the board.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
