GBP/USD appears to be in the final stages of its corrective downtrend according to Elliott Wave technical analysis, suggesting cable may be approaching a significant inflection point. The pair has been under sustained selling pressure as bearish wave structures have dominated price action in recent sessions. Elliott Wave practitioners identify the current move as a terminal wave within the broader corrective pattern, implying that downside momentum is likely exhausting. Key support levels are being closely monitored for signs of a wave completion and potential bullish reversal. Traders should watch for classic reversal signals such as bullish divergence on momentum oscillators and candlestick patterns near critical support zones. A confirmed end to the downtrend could open the door for a meaningful recovery rally in GBP/USD. However, until wave completion is validated by a break above near-term resistance, the bearish bias technically remains intact. Risk management is essential as false bottoms can occur before the final low is established. Upcoming UK and US economic data releases could serve as catalysts for the anticipated trend shift.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY faces bearish pressure following the Bank of Japan's widely expected 25 basis point rate hike, bringing its policy rate to 1.0% — the highest level in decades. The BOJ simultaneously announced a pause in its bond tapering program effective April 2027, while flagging ongoing inflation overshoot risks, signaling a more hawkish stance that could support further yen strength. In broader Asia-Pacific developments, mixed Chinese data weighed on risk sentiment: industrial output beat expectations at +4.5% y/y, but retail sales posted their first decline since 2022, while house prices fell -3.5% y/y. On the commodities front, Goldman Sachs cut its Brent crude forecast to $80 for 2026 and $75 for 2027 amid a potential Hormuz deal, with oil prices tracking toward the $60s — a development that could weigh on commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD. Traders should monitor the BOJ vote split details and any July forward guidance signals, as these could determine whether USD/JPY breaks through near-term support levels. The divergence between a tightening BOJ and other major central banks remains a key theme for yen crosses.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD faces renewed downside pressure following disappointing Chinese economic data that raises concerns about the health of Australia's largest trading partner. China's May retail sales contracted for the first time since December 2022, significantly missing expectations and signaling a deepening domestic demand problem that government stimulus measures have failed to address. While industrial output beat forecasts, fixed asset investment declined more than twice as fast as anticipated, compounding the bearish outlook for commodity-linked currencies. The data paints an increasingly uncomfortable picture for the Chinese growth narrative, with trade-in schemes and holiday spending proving insufficient to revive consumer activity. The Australian dollar, highly sensitive to Chinese economic performance due to commodity export reliance, is likely to face headwinds alongside the New Zealand dollar and broader risk sentiment. Traders should monitor USD/CNH for further yuan weakness signals, while AUD/USD support levels come into focus. The People's Bank of China may face growing pressure to deploy additional monetary easing measures, which could further weigh on CNH crosses in the near term.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
US equity markets posted strong gains on Monday with the S&P 500 rising 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite surging 3.1%, and the DJIA adding 0.9%, creating a risk-on environment that typically supports USD strength against safe-haven currencies. However, late-session selling pressure tempered the bullish tone, particularly in the Russell 2000, which hit a record high but closed near its intraday lows despite gaining 0.9%. This weak close in small-cap stocks is notable as these companies benefit most directly from lower oil prices and stronger consumer spending, suggesting underlying concerns about domestic economic momentum. The divergence between tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformance and small-cap weakness may signal selective risk appetite rather than broad-based bullishness. For forex traders, the mixed signals suggest USD/JPY could face resistance on further upside attempts, while commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD may see limited gains if the risk rally lacks conviction. Traders should monitor whether small-cap weakness persists, as it could foreshadow a broader shift in market sentiment and dollar direction.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD gapped higher at the Asia-Pacific open on Monday, initially extending gains before encountering selling pressure that pushed the pair to a session low of 1.15937. Buyers re-emerged at that level, lifting the pair back toward a session high near 1.1622, establishing a consolidation range for the early week. The bullish gap reflects positive weekend sentiment, likely driven by improved risk appetite following geopolitical developments including the Iran nuclear deal. Key intraday support has formed at the 1.1594 session low, while resistance sits near the 1.1622 high. A sustained break above 1.1622 could open the path toward the 1.1650 area, whereas a failure to hold 1.1594 may trigger gap-fill selling back toward Friday's close. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data releases and Federal Reserve commentary this week for directional catalysts. The consolidation pattern suggests the market is digesting the gap move, and a breakout from the current range will likely set the tone for the remainder of the session.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD opened Monday's session with a bullish gap-up alongside US equity indices (Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones) and gold, reflecting broad risk-on sentiment to start the week. The move higher was driven by improved global risk appetite, likely supported by the Iran nuclear deal and positive weekend developments in trade relations. However, analysts caution that the advances across all four assets remain vulnerable to reversal if key intraday support levels fail to hold. For AUD/USD, traders should watch for confirmation of the gap-up with sustained buying above the opening level, as gap-fills remain a common pattern in early-week trading. The correlation between the Australian dollar and equity markets reinforces the risk-sensitive nature of the move. Gold's concurrent rally suggests underlying dollar weakness is contributing to AUD/USD strength. Near-term direction will depend on whether buyers can defend support and build momentum, or whether profit-taking and fading risk appetite trigger a pullback across correlated assets.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar came under broad selling pressure on Monday as global equity markets surged and oil prices tumbled following the announcement of an Iran nuclear deal. US futures posted significant gains at the open, with risk-on flows reducing demand for the safe-haven dollar. The Iran deal is expected to increase global oil supply, sending crude prices sharply lower and alleviating inflationary pressures — a development that could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations by reducing the urgency for restrictive monetary policy. Lower oil prices typically weigh on commodity-linked inflation metrics, potentially giving the Fed more room to ease. The dollar weakness benefited risk-sensitive currencies including AUD and EUR, while the drop in crude may pressure commodity currencies like CAD and NOK. Key USD support levels on the Dollar Index should be monitored closely. Traders should watch for follow-through selling in the dollar if equity gains hold into the US session, as sustained risk appetite could accelerate the greenback's decline across major pairs throughout the week.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Oil prices dropped sharply during the European session as markets reacted positively to reports of a US-Iran agreement, with preparatory talks set to take place in Doha before signing a memorandum of understanding. The geopolitical de-escalation triggered a broad unwinding of risk premiums across energy and forex markets, with Brent crude falling significantly as supply disruption fears eased — highlighted by an Indian LNG tanker carrying Qatari cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz. ECB President Lagarde welcomed the peace deal but cautioned about second-round economic effects, while ECB policymaker Nagel confirmed all options remain open for the July meeting. Policymaker Kazaks echoed the data-dependent stance. Israel's declaration that it is not bound by the Lebanon ceasefire clause adds a layer of geopolitical uncertainty. For forex traders, the risk-on environment supports commodity-linked currencies while safe havens face pressure. Traders should monitor follow-through on the MOU deal and ECB rhetoric for near-term directional cues on EUR/USD and oil-sensitive pairs.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index has come under selling pressure as the geopolitical risk premium tied to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz begins to dissipate, weighing on the greenback against multiple counterparts including the Japanese yen, Swedish krona, and Korean won. The dollar had previously benefited from safe-haven demand as markets priced in potential disruptions to global oil flows through the critical waterway. With the de-escalation of Hormuz-related risks, traders are unwinding long USD positions, leading to broad-based dollar depreciation. USD/JPY has retreated as the yen recaptures some ground, while USD/SEK and USD/KRW have also moved lower as risk appetite improves across emerging and G10 currencies. The easing of geopolitical tensions is also reducing the oil supply disruption premium, which had indirectly supported the dollar through energy-related flows. Traders should monitor any renewed escalation in the region, as a return of Hormuz risk could quickly reverse current dollar weakness. Near-term, the DXY faces downside pressure unless fresh catalysts emerge to support safe-haven demand.
USDJPY
USDSEK
USDKRW
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is positioned for a week of elevated volatility as traders digest the implications of the US-Iran peace deal alongside upcoming central bank communications. The pair enters the new week with conflicting fundamental pressures — the geopolitical de-escalation from the Iran agreement has shifted risk sentiment, potentially weighing on safe-haven dollar demand while simultaneously lowering oil prices, which could temper eurozone inflation expectations. Brent oil futures have declined notably, removing a key inflationary input that had supported hawkish ECB positioning. Traders are closely watching whether the EUR/USD can sustain momentum above key technical levels or whether dollar strength reasserts itself as markets reprice geopolitical risk premiums. The combination of peace deal developments, ECB policy signals, and shifting energy market dynamics creates a complex trading environment. Near-term, expect wider-than-normal ranges as the market searches for equilibrium. Traders should employ appropriate risk management given the heightened volatility environment and watch for breakout confirmations before committing to directional positions.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Multiple forex pairs are repositioning as peace deal optimism from the US-Iran agreement intersects with key central bank announcements. USD/JPY faces downward pressure as the risk-on environment reduces safe-haven yen demand, though BOJ policy expectations provide a counterbalance. AUD/USD is benefiting from improved global risk appetite, with the commodity-linked Australian dollar gaining support as markets reassess growth prospects in a lower-geopolitical-risk environment. Brent oil and WTI crude futures have both declined materially as supply disruption fears ease, reshaping the inflation outlook for major central banks. The shift in energy prices could influence upcoming monetary policy decisions, particularly for oil-importing economies. Traders are recalibrating positions across oil-sensitive pairs and risk-correlated assets. Near-term focus remains on whether the peace deal progresses to formal signing and how central banks respond to the changed geopolitical landscape. Cross-asset correlations between oil, equities, and forex are tightening, making multi-market awareness essential for effective trade execution this week.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD, gold, and the US Dollar Index are experiencing significant repositioning as traders aggressively unwind geopolitical war hedges following the emergence of the US-Iran deal. Gold spot prices are retreating from elevated levels as the safe-haven premium erodes, while the DXY faces mixed signals — losing its geopolitical bid but potentially gaining support from relative US economic strength. EUR/USD is navigating the crosscurrents with the euro benefiting from reduced energy security concerns for the eurozone, as lower Brent crude prices ease import costs for the energy-dependent bloc. The unwinding of protective hedges is creating notable flows across major pairs, with positioning data suggesting further room for adjustment if the deal progresses. Technical levels on EUR/USD are being tested as the market reprices risk, with traders watching whether the pair can establish a new range. The DXY's trajectory will depend on whether safe-haven outflows outweigh potential gains from improved US diplomatic standing. Near-term, expect continued hedge unwinding to drive price action across gold and dollar pairs.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar opens the week on a positive footing as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran show signs of easing after three-and-a-half months of conflict. Both sides appear willing to reach a resolution, which is reducing safe-haven demand and supporting broader risk appetite across financial markets. Adding to the constructive market mood, SpaceX's highly anticipated public debut on Friday exceeded expectations, alleviating significant investor anxiety and boosting confidence in US equity markets. The combination of geopolitical de-escalation and strong US corporate sentiment is creating a risk-on environment that typically supports USD strength against traditional safe havens like JPY and CHF, while potentially weighing on gold. Traders should monitor the actual details of any US-Iran agreement, as the market impact will depend on whether the deal delivers substantive outcomes on sanctions relief and nuclear commitments. Key pairs to watch include USD/JPY for risk sentiment signals and USD/CHF as safe-haven flows unwind. Near-term, failure to finalize a credible deal could quickly reverse the current optimism.
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The U.S.-Iran agreement is emerging as a significant macro catalyst for commodity-linked forex pairs, with crude oil facing near-term downward pressure from two key provisions. First, a 60-day oil sales waiver effectively adds Iranian barrels to global supply immediately, creating a bearish overhang on WTI and Brent prices. Second, the commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil transits—reduces the geopolitical risk premium that had supported crude. However, the reopening is gradual and lacks an independent verification mechanism, introducing execution risk that may limit the full unwind of risk premia. For forex markets, lower crude prices tend to weigh on oil-exporting currencies such as CAD and NOK while potentially supporting net importers like JPY and INR. USD/CAD could see upward pressure as Canadian oil revenues face headwinds, while USD/JPY may soften on reduced energy import costs for Japan. Traders should monitor Hormuz mine-clearance timelines and OPEC+ responses as secondary catalysts in the sessions ahead.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY continues to exhibit distinctive price behavior compared to other major currency pairs, driven by the fundamental divergence between US and Japanese monetary policies. The Bank of Japan's ultra-accommodative stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's approach, creating unique dynamics that also influence cross-pairs such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. The analysis highlights how Japan's yield curve control policy and persistent intervention risks from Japanese authorities create asymmetric trading conditions that differentiate yen pairs from other majors. Traders should note that USD/JPY often responds more acutely to US Treasury yield movements than other dollar pairs, given Japan's role as a major holder of US debt. The structural carry trade dynamics, where investors borrow in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, continue to be a dominant theme. Near-term, traders should monitor Bank of Japan commentary for any shifts in policy language, as well as US economic data that could alter Fed rate expectations and subsequently reshape the yield differential driving this pair.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is trading with a mixed tone as conflicting reports surrounding a potential Iran nuclear deal create uncertainty across forex markets. Iran's finance minister indicated that an end to hostilities on all fronts would be announced under an interim agreement, with at least $10 billion in frozen Iranian assets set to be unlocked. However, former President Trump has dismissed leaked deal terms as fake, adding confusion to the geopolitical landscape. The potential unlocking of Iranian oil supply has implications for crude prices, which could weigh on commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK if oil prices decline. Meanwhile, the SpaceX IPO success signals robust risk appetite in US equity markets, which may provide a modest tailwind for risk-sensitive currencies against safe havens like JPY and CHF. Traders should monitor developments closely, as confirmation or denial of the deal terms could trigger sharp moves in USD pairs. Key levels to watch include DXY support near recent session lows, with geopolitical headline risk likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDIRR
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar received a modest boost after the preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 48.9, surpassing the consensus estimate of 46.0 and improving from the prior reading of 48.2. Current conditions rose to 48.4 versus 46.2 expected, while the expectations component jumped to 49.3, well above the anticipated 44.3. Critically for forex markets, inflation expectations showed notable improvement: the 1-year inflation outlook declined to 4.6% from 4.8%, and the 5-year inflation gauge dropped significantly to 3.4% from 3.9%. The easing in longer-term inflation expectations could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy, though the overall sentiment level remains historically depressed. Despite the beat, the persistently low absolute readings have failed to translate into actual consumer spending weakness, limiting the report's predictive value. Traders should note that the declining inflation expectations may temper USD gains if markets interpret the data as supportive of future rate cuts. Near-term dollar positioning will likely hinge on upcoming hard economic data releases.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Global markets are recalibrating as a potential US-Iran memorandum of understanding edges closer to finalization, with reports suggesting a signing could occur as soon as Sunday in Geneva. Oil prices have plunged sharply after Iran confirmed details of a deal framework with the US, though Iran's IRNA agency noted the country will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war levels, adding complexity to the geopolitical picture. The ECB's Nagel reiterated that policymakers are keeping all options open, maintaining a flexible stance on monetary policy. European equity markets traded with a cautious tone as traders positioned ahead of the Wall Street open, with attention also drawn to SpaceX's market debut. The sharp decline in crude oil prices could weigh on commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while potentially easing inflationary pressures globally, giving central banks more room for dovish pivots. Traders should monitor headline risk closely as negotiations remain fluid and the MoU draft is reportedly not yet finalized.
EURUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is extending its downside trajectory as the pair resumes its Elliott Wave C decline, driven by a broad-based resurgence in US dollar demand. The technical structure suggests the euro is under sustained selling pressure, with wave analysis pointing to further downside potential as the corrective pattern unfolds. The renewed dollar strength appears rooted in improving US economic data, including a better-than-expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, alongside easing inflation expectations that have not yet shifted Federal Reserve rate cut pricing materially. From a technical perspective, the Wave C formation typically represents the final leg of a corrective move, often producing sharp and extended declines. Traders should monitor key support levels closely, as a break below recent lows could accelerate the sell-off toward deeper Fibonacci retracement targets. Resistance overhead remains defined by the recent swing highs established before the current decline resumed. The bearish wave structure will remain valid as long as the pair trades below its corrective wave B peak. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and RSI divergence signals that may indicate wave completion.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on USD-related pairs as Iranian media reports that the memorandum of understanding draft between Iran and the US remains unfinalized. The draft reportedly includes sweeping US commitments: lifting oil sanctions, releasing Iran's frozen funds, withdrawing military forces from the region, canceling the naval blockade, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Final negotiations would then shift to nuclear and economic issues, notably excluding Iran's missile programme. Market analysts view these demands as highly ambitious and unlikely to be fully accepted by the US side, suggesting prolonged uncertainty. Oil-sensitive currencies such as CAD and NOK could see increased volatility if sanctions relief materializes, potentially pushing crude prices lower. USD/CAD traders should monitor developments closely, as any easing of Iranian oil sanctions would increase global supply and pressure crude benchmarks. Near-term, the dollar may see safe-haven flows if negotiations stall, while a breakthrough could weigh on USD strength as risk appetite improves across commodity-linked currencies.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
