USD/JPY remains stable near 157.50 following the Bank of Japan's quarterly regional report maintaining economic assessments for all nine Japanese regions. The rare unchanged report describes regional economies as either 'recovering moderately' or 'picking up moderately,' signaling steady but unremarkable growth across Japan. This status quo stance from the BOJ reinforces expectations of continued ultra-loose monetary policy, maintaining the significant rate differential with the Federal Reserve. The lack of urgency in the BOJ's assessment suggests no immediate pressure for policy normalization, keeping the yen vulnerable to carry trade flows. USD/JPY finds technical support at 157.00 (previous week's low) with resistance at 158.20 (monthly high). The unchanged regional outlook implies the BOJ remains comfortable with current yen weakness, potentially opening the path for USD/JPY to test higher levels if US yields remain elevated.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar remains under scrutiny as bond market analysts warn about complacency in the current 2026 consensus forecast. Market expectations center on moderate growth acceleration, a stable-to-weakening jobs market, and 2-3 Fed rate cuts throughout 2026, alongside declining inflation and 10-12% equity gains. However, this consensus view appears dangerously complacent given the Trump administration's policy uncertainties. The bond market has been notably quiet but is expected to react sharply to upcoming major events that could trigger significant reassessments. Current risk-on sentiment has dominated early 2026 trading, though market positioning suggests vulnerability to sudden shifts. Traders should monitor key USD pairs for potential volatility as bond yields may spike on any deviation from the consensus narrative, particularly around Fed policy announcements and economic data releases.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
WTI crude oil has plummeted $0.80 (1.4%) to $56.34 following unexpectedly bearish EIA inventory data. While crude inventories drew down by 3.832 million barrels versus an expected build of 447,000 barrels, the report revealed massive product builds that overshadowed the headline draw. Gasoline inventories surged by 7.702 million barrels, more than double the expected 3.186 million build, while distillates jumped 5.594 million barrels against expectations of 2.109 million. These substantial product builds signal weakening demand outlook and will likely pressure crude consumption going forward. The bearish inventory report is strengthening the US dollar against commodity-linked currencies, with USD/CAD gaining 0.5% as Canada's oil-dependent economy faces headwinds. Technical indicators suggest WTI could test support at $55.50, with further downside targeting the $54.00 level if product inventories continue building at this pace.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is consolidating near recent highs with analysts anticipating that upcoming positive US economic data could trigger the next significant leg higher in the pair. The dollar-yen pair has been supported by diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance while the BOJ continues its ultra-accommodative policy. Market positioning suggests traders are building long USD/JPY positions ahead of key US data releases this week, including retail sales and manufacturing indicators. Technical analysis shows the pair forming a bullish flag pattern with resistance at 150.50 and support at 149.20. A break above resistance could accelerate gains toward the 151.50 level, particularly if US data surprises to the upside. Gold prices have remained inversely correlated with USD/JPY strength, declining as the dollar gains momentum. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic releases closely as positive surprises could provide the catalyst for renewed yen weakness.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar remained virtually unchanged during the early US session, with major currency pairs confined to exceptionally narrow trading ranges. EURUSD oscillated within a mere 30-pip range, while GBPUSD moved just 35 pips from low to high. USDJPY showed the broadest movement at 50 pips, matched by AUDUSD, while USDCHF, USDCAD, and NZDUSD traded in even tighter bands of 24, 26, and 22 pips respectively. This lack of directional momentum reflects a cautious market environment as traders await fresh catalysts. The subdued price action suggests consolidation patterns across the board, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish control. Technical traders face challenging conditions with limited opportunities for momentum-based strategies. The narrow ranges indicate potential for a volatility expansion once key economic data or central bank communications provide direction, making current levels critical for establishing positions ahead of potential breakouts.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD and the FTSE 100 index are presenting compelling technical trading opportunities as markets navigate early 2026 volatility. EUR/USD has been consolidating in a tight range between 1.0420-1.0480, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout to determine the next directional move. The pair faces resistance at the 50-day moving average (1.0485) while support holds at the December low of 1.0415. A break below support could accelerate selling toward 1.0350, while clearing resistance opens the path to 1.0550. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 correlation with GBP/USD movements suggests currency traders should monitor UK equity performance for sterling direction clues. Technical indicators show EUR/USD RSI hovering near 48, indicating neutral momentum that could shift rapidly with upcoming ECB and Fed policy communications. Traders are advised to watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempts, as false breaks have been common in recent sessions.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD declined as markets price in increased ECB easing risks while Federal Reserve rate cut expectations diminish. The pair faced selling pressure as investors anticipate the European Central Bank may accelerate its accommodative stance amid sluggish Eurozone growth concerns. Simultaneously, resilient US economic data has reduced market expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2024, supporting dollar strength. Gold prices also retreated alongside the euro weakness, while the Dollar Index strengthened, confirming broad USD demand. Oil markets showed mixed signals, adding to the complex fundamental backdrop. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential for EUR/USD, with key support levels being tested. The diverging monetary policy outlook between the ECB and Fed remains the primary driver, with the ECB potentially cutting rates more aggressively than previously anticipated. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications and US economic releases for confirmation of this policy divergence trend.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD remains unchanged around 1.0400 following the release of Eurozone's December preliminary CPI data, which came in at 2.0% year-over-year, matching market expectations and down from November's 2.1%. Core inflation eased to 2.3% from the previous 2.4%, slightly below the forecast of 2.4%. Despite headline inflation reaching the ECB's target, services inflation remains elevated at 3.4%, suggesting persistent price pressures in this sector. The data reinforces market expectations that the ECB will maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy easing in early 2024. Technical indicators show EUR/USD consolidating near the 1.0400 psychological level, with immediate resistance at 1.0430 and support at 1.0370. Traders await upcoming ECB officials' speeches and US economic data for further directional cues, with the pair likely to remain range-bound until clearer monetary policy signals emerge from either central bank.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
China's gold reserves reached 74.15 million troy ounces in December, marking the 14th consecutive monthly increase and valued at $319.45 billion, up from $310.65 billion in November. This persistent accumulation, which began in November 2024, reflects China's strategic diversification away from USD-denominated assets, potentially weighing on USD/CNY. The People's Bank of China's gold buying spree has been instrumental in supporting global gold prices while simultaneously reducing reliance on US dollar reserves. This trend suggests continued yuan strength against the dollar as Beijing signals confidence in alternative reserve assets. Technical indicators show USD/CNY testing support at 7.2500, with further downside possible if China maintains its gold accumulation pace. The move aligns with broader de-dollarization efforts among major economies, potentially limiting dollar strength in Asian trading sessions.
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD pairs face potential volatility as the US Supreme Court schedules Friday as a decision day, with markets anticipating a ruling on tariff-related cases. The expedited hearing timeline suggests an imminent decision that could significantly impact trade policy and dollar strength. Traders are positioning defensively across major USD pairs, with implied volatility rising in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CNH options markets. The ruling could affect US trade relations and potentially influence Federal Reserve policy considerations if tariffs impact inflation expectations. Technical levels show EUR/USD consolidating near 1.0500, USD/JPY holding above 157.00, while USD/CNH remains sensitive given China trade implications. Market participants should prepare for heightened volatility and potential gaps in USD pairs following the announcement. Risk management strategies including wider stops and reduced position sizes are advisable ahead of this high-impact event.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar retreated across major pairs following the release of disappointing Services PMI data, with the final reading coming in at 52.5 versus the preliminary 52.9 and below the previous month's 54.1. This marks the weakest services sector expansion in approximately 20 months, according to S&P Global's Chief Economist Chris Williamson. The data reveals a broad-based weakening in demand growth, with new business orders showing the smallest rise since early 2024 and manufacturing orders falling for the first time in a year. DXY (Dollar Index) dropped 0.2% to 108.50 following the release, with EUR/USD gaining 25 pips to 1.0325 and GBP/USD advancing to 1.2450. The softer data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause its hawkish stance, potentially limiting further dollar strength. Technical indicators suggest immediate support for DXY at 108.30, with resistance at 108.80.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD maintains its position above the crucial 1.1660 support level, showing resilience in early Monday trading. The pair has consolidated in a tight range between 1.1660-1.1680, with buyers defending the psychological support successfully through multiple tests. Technical indicators suggest building momentum for an upward move, with the RSI turning higher from oversold conditions and the MACD showing early signs of a bullish crossover. A decisive break above the 1.17 resistance level would confirm trend continuation and open the path toward 1.1750, the December high. The euro finds underlying support from improving risk sentiment and expectations of continued ECB policy normalization, while the dollar faces headwinds from mixed US economic data. Traders should watch for a daily close above 1.17 as a bullish signal, while failure to hold 1.1660 could trigger a deeper correction toward 1.1620.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index has declined 0.2% to 103.45 as forex markets shift focus away from Venezuela-related geopolitical concerns toward upcoming economic data releases. Despite initial safe-haven flows supporting the greenback, traders are now positioning for this week's key US economic indicators, including ISM Services PMI and Friday's employment report. EUR/USD has benefited from the dollar's retreat, climbing 25 pips to 1.1675, while USD/CAD dropped 0.3% to 1.3420 as oil prices stabilized above $75 per barrel. Market participants appear to be discounting the Venezuela situation as a localized issue unlikely to trigger broader market disruptions. The dollar's near-term trajectory will likely depend on incoming data confirming or challenging the Fed's current policy stance. Technical analysis shows the DXY facing resistance at 104.00, with support established at 103.20.
EURUSD
USDCAD
DXY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD has advanced 0.4% to 0.6450 in Asian trading, extending its recovery from last week's lows as risk sentiment improves and dollar weakness persists. The pair benefited from disappointing US ISM Manufacturing data (47.8 vs 48.5 expected), which weighed on the greenback across the board. Markets are now focused on Wednesday's Australian Q4 CPI data, with economists expecting a 2.3% year-over-year reading that could influence RBA policy decisions. The improved risk environment, supported by stable equity markets and commodity prices, has provided additional tailwind for the risk-sensitive Aussie. Technical indicators show AUD/USD breaking above its 50-day moving average at 0.6435, targeting the next resistance at 0.6480. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could propel the pair toward 0.6500, while disappointment might see support tested at 0.6400. The RBA's hawkish stance relative to other central banks continues to underpin the Australian dollar's medium-term outlook.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY maintains its bullish momentum above 157.00, supported by elevated US Treasury yields and the Bank of Japan's persistently dovish monetary policy stance. The pair has gained approximately 2.5% since the start of 2025, with the 10-year US Treasury yield holding firm above 4.5%, widening the rate differential between the US and Japan. The BoJ's reluctance to accelerate policy normalization continues to pressure the yen, despite verbal interventions from Japanese officials warning against excessive currency weakness. Technical indicators suggest strong bullish structure with immediate resistance at 158.20 (recent highs) and support established at 156.40 (50-day moving average). The US Dollar Index remains elevated near 108.50, adding further strength to the greenback. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data and any potential shift in BoJ rhetoric, as sustained moves above 158.00 could trigger renewed intervention concerns from Japanese authorities.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Japanese government bond yields continue their aggressive selloff, with 10-year yields holding at 2.12%, marking the highest levels since 1999. The latest 10-year JGB auction showed solid demand with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.30, yet selling pressure persists as investors adjust to the new yield environment. 30-year yields surged an additional 3 basis points to 3.485%, reflecting expectations of sustained Bank of Japan policy normalization. The widening yield differential between US Treasuries and JGBs is reducing the yen's appeal as a funding currency, supporting USD/JPY above 157.00. Technical indicators suggest immediate resistance at 157.80, with support established at 156.50. Rising Japanese yields signal the BOJ's gradual shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially marking a structural change in global carry trade dynamics. Traders should monitor upcoming BOJ communications for further policy guidance.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD remains range-bound near 1.0540, showing minimal movement as traders await today's Eurozone inflation figures. Markets anticipate the data will have limited impact on the European Central Bank's current stance, with no rate changes expected throughout 2025. The ECB has maintained a cautious approach following its December rate cut to 3.0%, citing persistent economic uncertainties. Today's inflation release, expected to show annual CPI at 2.4%, could provide short-term volatility but is unlikely to alter the broader monetary policy trajectory. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD is consolidating between support at 1.0520 and resistance at 1.0580. The pair's muted reaction reflects market consensus that the ECB will remain on hold, maintaining its wait-and-see approach. Traders should monitor any significant deviation from consensus inflation figures, which could trigger a temporary breakout from the current trading range.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The USD has strengthened against commodity-linked currencies following reports of Venezuelan President Maduro's capture, with oil volatility impacting forex markets. WTI crude initially spiked 2.3% to $73.50/barrel before paring gains as traders assessed the complex implications. Scotiabank analysts describe the situation as 'mixed' for oil markets, noting potential supply disruptions from Venezuela's 750,000 bpd output could be offset by increased production elsewhere. The Canadian dollar weakened 0.4% against USD to 1.4350, while other petro-currencies showed similar pressure. Energy sector equities displayed divergent reactions, with integrated oil majors gaining while refiners faced uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.4400, with support at 1.4300. Traders should monitor developments closely as geopolitical uncertainty typically drives safe-haven flows to USD, potentially pressuring commodity currencies further in the near term.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index advanced 0.4% following the release of December FOMC meeting minutes, which revealed a split among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of future rate adjustments. Several committee members expressed concerns about persistent inflation risks, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary easing in 2024. The hawkish undertones pushed EUR/USD down 45 pips to 1.0315, while USD/JPY climbed to 157.80. Market participants noted that the divided outlook reduces the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts previously priced in for early 2024. Technical indicators show the Dollar Index approaching key resistance at 108.50, with momentum oscillators signaling further upside potential. The minutes' impact extended across major pairs, with GBP/USD retreating to 1.2420 and AUD/USD falling below 0.6200. Traders should monitor upcoming inflation data and Fed speakers for clarity on the central bank's direction.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index has gained 0.5% in early trading as escalating geopolitical tensions and European political uncertainty drive safe-haven flows into the greenback. EUR/USD declined 0.4% to 1.0420, pressured by concerns over political instability in key European nations ahead of upcoming elections. GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2650 despite earlier bullish momentum, as risk-off sentiment outweighed positive UK economic data. Gold prices retreated 0.8% to $2,045 per ounce as the stronger dollar dampened demand for the precious metal. Technical indicators show the Dollar Index breaking above the 104.50 resistance level, with next targets at 105.20. Traders are monitoring developments in European politics and any escalation in global tensions, which could further support dollar strength. The shift to risk-off positioning suggests continued pressure on risk-sensitive currencies in the near term.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
XAUUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
