EUR/USD has strengthened as increased expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut weigh on the dollar. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's September meeting, shifting from previous hawkish expectations. The pair has found support above key moving averages, with technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum building. Economic data divergence between the US and Eurozone continues to influence trading, with recent US indicators showing signs of cooling that support the dovish Fed narrative. Immediate resistance lies at 1.1700, a psychological level that bulls are targeting in the near term. The shift in Fed rate expectations has fundamentally altered the dollar's trajectory, creating opportunities for EUR/USD longs. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic releases, particularly inflation and employment data, which could either reinforce or challenge current rate cut expectations.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has advanced as the Canadian dollar faces significant pressure from escalating trade barrier concerns. The implementation of new tariffs is reshaping Canada's economic outlook, with potential impacts on key export sectors including energy and manufacturing. Market participants are reassessing CAD positions as trade uncertainties cloud the Bank of Canada's policy path and economic growth projections. The loonie's vulnerability has been exacerbated by its high correlation with commodity prices and trade flows, both of which face headwinds from protectionist measures. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD breaking above recent resistance levels, with momentum indicators supporting further upside potential. The trade policy landscape remains the dominant driver for the pair, overshadowing traditional factors like oil prices and interest rate differentials. Traders should closely monitor trade negotiations and policy announcements, as any resolution or escalation could trigger sharp movements in USD/CAD.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD is ending the trading week with a modest bearish bias, as technical indicators suggest continued downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The pair has struggled to maintain upward momentum throughout the week, facing resistance at key technical levels. Traders are closely monitoring the price action as the pair tests important support zones that could determine the near-term direction. The bearish sentiment reflects broader risk-off market conditions and concerns about New Zealand's economic outlook relative to the US dollar's resilience. Technical analysis shows the pair trading below its key moving averages, with momentum indicators pointing to further potential downside. Immediate support is being tested, and a break below current levels could accelerate selling pressure toward lower targets. For traders, the technical setup suggests maintaining a cautious stance on NZD longs while watching for potential short opportunities if key support levels fail.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The Baker Hughes oil rig count increased by 1 to reach 412 rigs, indicating a marginal expansion in US drilling activity. Oil prices remain relatively unchanged for the trading week, with WTI crude closing last week at $63.33 and maintaining similar levels currently. The modest increase in rig count suggests stable but cautious investment in oil exploration, reflecting balanced market conditions between supply concerns and demand expectations. For forex traders, steady oil prices typically support commodity-linked currencies like CAD and NOK while having neutral implications for the US dollar. The lack of significant movement in oil markets reduces volatility in oil-sensitive currency pairs. Technical levels for oil remain range-bound, with traders awaiting clearer directional signals. The stable oil environment suggests limited impact on forex markets in the near term, allowing traders to focus on other fundamental drivers for currency movements.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar strengthened following a significant miss in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for August, which plummeted to 58.6 from 61.7, well below the 62.0 forecast. Current conditions dropped dramatically to 60.9 versus 67.9 expected, while expectations improved slightly to 57.2 from 57.1. Inflation expectations jumped notably, with 1-year outlook rising to 4.9% from 4.5% and 5-year expectations increasing to 3.9% from 3.4%. The sharp decline in consumer sentiment, described as a 'big drop' by Joanne Hsu from the University, reflects growing consumer concerns about economic conditions. Higher inflation expectations could support the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, providing underlying support for the dollar. For forex traders, this data reinforces USD strength potential, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies, as deteriorating sentiment often triggers safe-haven flows while elevated inflation expectations maintain rate support.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Wells Fargo projects US retail sales to surge +0.6% month-over-month for July, driven primarily by a rebound in auto sales and elevated prices. The bank notes that excluding autos, sales gains would be approximately half, at around +0.3%, reflecting underlying consumer spending fatigue. Recent data shows consumers pulling back on discretionary purchases as economic pressures mount. The anticipated strong headline retail sales figure could provide temporary support for the US dollar, particularly if it beats market expectations. However, the weakness in core retail sales (ex-autos) highlights concerning trends in consumer behavior that may limit sustained USD strength. For forex traders, the divergence between headline and core figures suggests potential volatility around the release, with initial USD strength possibly fading if markets focus on weakening consumer fundamentals. The report underscores the importance of looking beyond headline numbers when assessing the dollar's medium-term trajectory.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is showing signs of recovery as markets react positively to reported peace talk developments between Trump and Putin, reducing geopolitical tensions that had previously weighed on the euro. The pair has pared some recent losses as traders reassess risk sentiment amid hopes for de-escalation in regional conflicts. The optimism surrounding potential diplomatic breakthroughs is providing support for risk-sensitive currencies, with the euro benefiting from reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Technical analysis suggests the pair is attempting to establish a base after recent declines, though significant resistance levels remain overhead. The geopolitical developments add a new dimension to EUR/USD dynamics, potentially offsetting some negative fundamental pressures on the euro. For traders, the peace talk narrative introduces additional volatility and uncertainty, requiring careful monitoring of both diplomatic developments and technical levels. Near-term direction will likely depend on concrete progress in negotiations and broader risk sentiment shifts.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar has given back a significant portion of its previous session's gains as traders remain firmly committed to pricing in a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut for September. Despite attempts at a dollar recovery, market positioning reflects persistent dovish expectations that continue to cap any sustained USD strength. The retracement suggests that yesterday's dollar bounce was likely profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment. Currency markets are demonstrating conviction in their Fed policy outlook, with futures markets maintaining high probability for September easing. This persistent pricing pressure is keeping the dollar on the defensive across major pairs. Technical indicators show the dollar index struggling to maintain momentum above key resistance levels. The market's unwavering focus on September rate cut expectations suggests any dollar rallies may face selling pressure until the Fed provides clearer guidance or economic data significantly shifts the narrative.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is consolidating above key moving averages, with bullish momentum building for a potential push toward the 1.1700 resistance level. The pair has established a solid technical foundation, holding above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which now act as dynamic support levels. This consolidation phase appears constructive for bulls, with reduced volatility allowing for position building ahead of the next directional move. Technical indicators including RSI and MACD suggest positive momentum without being overbought, providing room for further upside. The 1.1700 level represents both a psychological barrier and previous resistance zone that could trigger significant order flow if breached. Near-term support has formed around 1.1600, with the moving average confluence zone providing a cushion for any pullbacks. Traders are positioning for a breakout attempt, with stop-losses likely clustered below the MA support zone and take-profits targeting the 1.1700-1.1750 area.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has declined sharply following Japan's better-than-expected GDP data, which has intensified speculation about a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. Japanese GDP growth exceeded forecasts, signaling economic resilience that could provide the BoJ with justification to further normalize monetary policy. The strong economic performance has shifted market dynamics, with traders now pricing in higher probability of BoJ tightening in upcoming meetings. This represents a significant shift from the ultra-loose policy stance that has characterized Japanese monetary policy for years. The yen's strength has been amplified by its safe-haven appeal amid global market uncertainties. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking below key support levels, with momentum indicators pointing to further downside potential. The combination of diverging central bank policies—with the Fed potentially cutting while the BoJ tightens—creates a compelling bearish case for USD/JPY. Traders should monitor upcoming BoJ communications and Japanese economic data for confirmation of this policy shift.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Japanese Yen. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
A stronger Japan Q2 economic performance is helping to inspire the yen today
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Today marks Assumption Day and it is a public holiday in many countries in Europe. It is a bank holiday of note in the likes of France, Spain, Italy , and some parts of Germany. So, expect the market mood to be quieter as traders and investors are all in a summer holiday mood.
EUR
CHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
A robust US Producer Price Index report has sent ripples across financial markets, dampening hopes for an imminent dovish shift from the Federal
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has dribbled lower still
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD surged 0.5% to 1.3820 after US Producer Price Index data exceeded expectations, showing a 0.9% monthly gain in July. The pair broke above key technical resistance levels, including the 100-day moving average at 1.3774 and this week's prior high at 1.3805. Earlier selling pressure at the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (1.3752) failed to contain bullish momentum as traders reacted to the inflation data. The stronger-than-expected PPI reading has reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting dollar strength. Technical momentum suggests further upside potential with immediate resistance at 1.3850, while support has shifted to the broken 1.3805 level. The breakout above multiple moving averages signals a potential trend reversal, with traders now eyeing upcoming US CPI data for confirmation of persistent inflationary pressures.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/CHF gained 0.4% to 0.8085 following stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index data showing a 0.9% increase in July. The pair broke decisively above both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, as well as the crucial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8071. This level had previously capped gains during yesterday's Asian session before the pair rotated lower. The unexpected jump in producer prices has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing fresh momentum for dollar bulls. Technical indicators now point to further upside potential, with immediate resistance at 0.8100 psychological level and the 50% retracement near 0.8120. Support has shifted to the broken 0.8071 area, which should now act as a floor on any pullbacks. The clean break above multiple technical levels suggests a shift in near-term momentum favoring USD strength.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar index rose 0.3% as markets digested higher-than-expected Producer Price Index data from July, significantly reducing expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The PPI showed a 0.9% monthly increase, well above consensus estimates, signaling persistent inflationary pressures in the US economy. Treasury yields jumped in response, with the 2-year yield climbing 8 basis points to 4.15%. Market pricing for a 50 basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting dropped from 35% to just 20% following the data release. Major dollar pairs reacted strongly, with EUR/USD falling to 1.0920 and GBP/USD declining to 1.2780. Gold prices also retreated $15 to $2,485 per ounce as real yields moved higher. The data suggests the Fed may maintain a more gradual approach to policy easing, supporting dollar strength in the near term.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Financial markets are recalibrating Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following stronger-than-expected US inflation data. The probability of a 50 basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting has declined sharply, with markets now favoring a more measured 25bp reduction. EUR/USD retreated from recent highs above 1.10 to trade at 1.0925, while GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2785. Gold futures pulled back $18 to $2,487 per ounce as rising real yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets. The shift in sentiment reflects growing uncertainty about the pace of disinflation, with producer prices showing unexpected strength. Treasury markets have repriced accordingly, with the 10-year yield climbing to 3.95%. Traders are now focused on upcoming CPI data and Fed communications for further clarity on the monetary policy trajectory, with most analysts expecting a gradual easing cycle rather than aggressive cuts.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Crude oil prices have extended their decline since early August's softer-than-expected NFP report sparked growth concerns, with WTI trading near multi-month lows. The bearish momentum accelerated following OPEC+'s anticipated production increase, adding supply pressure to an already weakening demand outlook. Market focus has shifted to tomorrow's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, where discussions on potential ceasefire agreements could ease US sanctions on Russian oil exports. This development has reduced geopolitical risk premiums, contributing to the current downtrend. Technical indicators suggest further weakness, with key support levels at $68.50 and $67.00 per barrel. Any breakthrough in diplomatic talks could trigger additional selling pressure as markets price in increased Russian crude supply. Traders should monitor the summit outcomes closely, as failure to reach agreements might spark a relief rally in oil prices.
USDCAD
USDRUB
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
