NZD/USD traders are positioning ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation expectations survey scheduled for release during the Thursday Asian session on August 13, 2026. The RBNZ places significant emphasis on the 2-year inflation expectations reading, as the central bank considers two years to be the appropriate time horizon for monetary policy transmission to fully impact the broader economy. This metric serves as a critical input for RBNZ rate decisions, as it reflects how businesses and consumers anticipate future price pressures. A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce hawkish expectations, potentially supporting the New Zealand dollar, while a decline in inflation expectations may open the door for additional easing measures, weighing on NZD/USD. Traders should monitor the release closely alongside broader risk sentiment in the Asia-Pacific session. The data point is particularly relevant given the RBNZ's ongoing efforts to anchor inflation within its 1-3% target band, and any deviation from consensus could trigger notable volatility in NZD crosses.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is maintaining a short-term uptrend above the 1.3479 level, having successfully broken above a medium-term descending trendline following the recent Non-Farm Payrolls report. The pair's bullish momentum reflects renewed sterling strength as the dollar faces uncertainty ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index release. The NFP-driven breakout above the descending trendline marks a significant technical shift, suggesting buyers have regained control of the pair's medium-term trajectory. However, the upcoming CPI print poses a key risk event for the pair. A hotter-than-expected core CPI reading could reignite expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, strengthening the dollar and putting downward pressure on GBP/USD. Immediate support sits at 1.3479, which now serves as a pivotal level for the short-term uptrend, while a sustained hold above this level could open the door to further gains. Traders should closely monitor the inflation data, as a significant deviation from consensus could trigger sharp volatility in the pair and potentially reverse the current bullish bias.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forex markets are navigating heightened uncertainty as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East combine with anticipation of the upcoming US CPI release to create a volatile trading environment. Conflicting signals surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement and ongoing concerns about shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are weighing on risk sentiment across asset classes. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are seeing intermittent demand as traders assess the implications of potential supply chain disruptions on global energy markets and inflation dynamics. The uncertainty around Hormuz shipping lanes has also supported crude oil prices, indirectly influencing commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone. With US CPI data imminent, markets face a dual risk scenario where geopolitical escalation could amplify the impact of any inflation surprise. Traders should monitor developments in the Middle East alongside the CPI print, as the convergence of these factors could drive significant directional moves across major and cross pairs in the near term.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are escalating after Iran reportedly declared that no ceasefire discussions are taking place, asserting that the previous agreement no longer exists. According to Iranian officials, the US violated the agreement within 48 hours of it being reached and subsequently withdrew days later. Iran maintains there is no ceasefire start date and therefore nothing to extend. Discussions are reportedly centered on the US returning to conditions outlined in a memorandum of understanding, including defining a timeframe for implementing commitments, though no progress has been made. This breakdown in diplomatic channels elevates Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, which traditionally supports safe-haven currencies such as JPY, CHF, and gold while weighing on risk-sensitive assets. Oil prices may also face upward pressure given Iran's role as a major crude producer, potentially benefiting commodity-linked currencies like CAD and NOK. Traders should monitor USD pairs and crude oil closely, as further deterioration in US-Iran relations could trigger significant volatility across forex and commodity markets in the near term.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asia-Pacific markets are showing mixed sentiment as oil prices edge higher amid geopolitical developments in the Gulf region, while regional equity indices diverge with South Korea's Kospi rallying on chip stocks and Japan's Nikkei holding steady ahead of the US CPI release. The Australian dollar faces potential pressure after Australia announced a world-leading pay floor for 250,000 gig delivery workers, a move that could stoke wage-driven inflation expectations and influence RBA policy considerations. Gulf states are reportedly bypassing strategic choke points as Strait of Hormuz risks persist, with a Saudi-Oman deal fitting a broader pattern of regional infrastructure diversification. President Trump's assertion of total control over Hormuz adds a layer of geopolitical risk premium to crude oil, which could support commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD while weighing on oil-importing nations' currencies such as JPY. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming US CPI print, as it will be critical in shaping Fed rate expectations and broad USD direction. Near-term, USD/JPY remains sensitive to both the inflation data and risk sentiment shifts across Asian markets.
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDKRW
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar index is facing downside pressure as Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius projects a benign July CPI report, with headline inflation expected at approximately 0.05% month-over-month and core CPI near 0.19%. Both figures would come in at or slightly below market consensus, reinforcing the disinflationary trend that Hatzius says began in June. A softer-than-expected inflation print would significantly ease pressure on the Federal Reserve heading into its September meeting, bolstering expectations for a rate cut. Lower rate expectations typically weigh on the greenback, potentially benefiting pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Traders should closely monitor the actual CPI release for confirmation, as any upside surprise could quickly reverse dollar weakness. If the data aligns with Goldman's forecast, the dollar could test nearby support levels against major counterparts, with EUR/USD potentially pushing toward recent resistance zones. The report carries outsized importance given the Fed's data-dependent stance and the proximity to the September FOMC decision, making it a critical catalyst for near-term USD positioning.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has revised its crude oil price forecasts significantly higher, with WTI spot prices now expected to average $80.88/bbl in 2026, up from the prior estimate of $76.26 — a roughly 6% upward revision. The adjustment reflects tightening supply conditions driven by Middle East production disruptions observed in July and ongoing risks to key shipping routes in the region. These elevated oil price expectations carry direct implications for commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Canadian dollar, which tends to strengthen alongside rising crude prices. Higher sustained oil revenues bolster Canada's trade balance and economic outlook, placing downward pressure on USD/CAD. The EIA also revised its 2027 price outlook higher while adjusting global supply and demand projections. For forex traders, the combination of geopolitical supply risks and firmer crude pricing supports a constructive CAD bias. Key levels to watch on USD/CAD include nearby support zones that could be tested if oil prices continue to firm, while any de-escalation in Middle East tensions could reverse the commodity-driven CAD strength.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
US existing home sales for July came in slightly above expectations at 4.06 million units versus the 4.05 million forecast, though down 1.7% from the prior reading of 4.09 million. The median home price rose 2.0% year-over-year to $434,100, while housing inventory held steady at 4.6 months of supply. The data paints a picture of a housing market in a holding pattern, constrained by elevated mortgage rates driven by rising Treasury yields. When adjusted for CPI, housing affordability shows a slight but steady improvement, offering a modest positive signal for consumer purchasing power. The key variable for the US dollar going forward is the trajectory of borrowing rates, which directly ties to Federal Reserve policy expectations and Treasury market dynamics. For forex traders, the data is broadly neutral for the USD, as it neither supports aggressive rate cuts nor signals economic deterioration. Near-term USD pairs may remain range-bound pending clearer signals from upcoming inflation or employment data. Traders should monitor the 10-year Treasury yield as a leading indicator for mortgage rate direction and broader dollar sentiment.
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures jumped and crude oil prices tumbled sharply as well-timed diplomatic comments sparked a fresh wave of optimism regarding tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The de-escalation narrative has triggered a broad risk-on move across markets, weakening the US dollar as safe-haven demand recedes. Lower oil prices carry significant implications for forex markets, potentially easing inflationary pressures globally and reducing the urgency for central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies. The decline in crude particularly benefits oil-importing nations' currencies such as the Japanese yen and Indian rupee, while commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone may face headwinds. For USD pairs, the risk-on shift is putting downward pressure on the greenback, with traders rotating into higher-beta currencies. Technical traders should watch for a sustained break below key dollar index support levels to confirm the bearish USD move. The durability of this rally depends on whether diplomatic rhetoric translates into concrete agreements. Traders should remain cautious, as Hormuz-related optimism has historically been subject to rapid reversals.
USDJPY
USDCAD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP faces uncertainty as the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced it will not decide until July next year on the feasibility of transitioning to improved labour market statistics. This delay extends a data reliability issue that has persisted for over three years, undermining the Bank of England's ability to accurately assess employment conditions when setting monetary policy. The ongoing lack of dependable labour market figures creates a significant blind spot for policymakers and traders alike, as employment data is a critical input for interest rate decisions. Without reliable jobs data, the BoE must rely on alternative indicators and estimates, potentially leading to policy missteps that could weigh on sterling. For GBP/USD traders, this prolonged statistical uncertainty adds a layer of fundamental risk, as market participants cannot confidently gauge the true state of UK employment. The news is modestly negative for the pound, as it perpetuates an information vacuum that could delay appropriate policy responses and erode confidence in UK economic assessments among international investors.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asia-Pacific markets are navigating a complex landscape with multiple currency-moving developments. The Japanese yen is drawing attention as sources suggest the Bank of Japan could raise rates again at its September 17-18 meeting, potentially strengthening JPY against major counterparts. USD/INR faces upward pressure as the Indian rupee is set to open weaker amid rising oil prices, though Reserve Bank of India intervention may cap losses. AUD/USD traders are digesting mixed Australian business data, with conditions edging higher in July but confidence remaining fragile, limiting upside potential. The New Zealand dollar faces political uncertainty as PM Luxon calls an urgent caucus meeting to address leadership speculation, adding downside risk to NZD pairs. Singapore's doubling of its 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5%, driven by a tech cycle upgrade, provides a bullish backdrop for SGD. Meanwhile, the PBOC setting seven-day reverse repo volume at zero signals tightening liquidity conditions in China, potentially weighing on risk-sensitive currencies. Oil and gold remaining near highs add further complexity to commodity-linked forex positioning.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDINR
USDSGD
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Brent crude oil prices climbed above $88 per barrel amid a prolonged US-Iran diplomatic stalemate, injecting uncertainty into global energy markets and influencing forex positioning across Asia-Pacific. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan oscillated between losses and gains before settling up 0.2%, while South Korea's Kospi added 0.3%. The elevated oil prices are putting pressure on currencies of net oil-importing economies, particularly the Japanese yen and Indian rupee, while supporting commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar. The US-Iran standoff introduces a geopolitical risk premium into crude, which could filter through to higher inflation expectations and complicate central bank rate decisions globally. For forex traders, the key dynamic is the divergence between commodity exporters and importers — pairs like AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY may see upward pressure as energy costs diverge. Near-term, traders should watch for any breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, which could trigger a sharp reversal in oil and associated currency moves. Elevated crude also reinforces USD strength through petrodollar recycling flows.
USDJPY
AUDJPY
CADJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD is trading in a narrow range ahead of today's Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, with the NAB Monthly Business Survey for July providing a mixed backdrop for the Australian dollar. Business conditions edged higher to +4, an improvement from prior readings but still well below the long-run average of +7, indicating the economy is performing better than feared without signaling robust strength. However, business confidence remains stuck well below pre-conflict levels, reflecting persistent uncertainty weighing on forward-looking sentiment. The combination of modestly improving conditions alongside fragile confidence gives the RBA little incentive to deviate from a widely expected hold on interest rates. Traders should anticipate a cautious central bank tone that is neither clearly hawkish nor dovish, which may limit significant AUD/USD volatility post-decision. Near-term direction for the pair will likely hinge on the RBA's guidance language and any shifts in risk appetite. Traders should watch for breakout opportunities once the policy statement is released, as the current consolidation phase could resolve quickly on any surprise rhetoric.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The Japanese yen was the worst-performing major currency on Monday, giving back a significant portion of recent gains, while the British pound led all majors. USD/JPY rallied sharply as risk appetite shifted amid hawkish Fed commentary, with Cleveland Fed's Hammack stating that now is the time to bring more restraint into monetary policy. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed 4.3 basis points to 4.70%, further pressuring the low-yielding yen. Gold surged $46 to $4,388 and WTI crude oil jumped $3.90 to $82.08, reflecting broader commodity strength driven in part by geopolitical tensions as President Trump demanded compensation from Iran. US employment trends data for July came in at 107.71, up from the prior reading of 106.74, suggesting continued labor market resilience. The S&P 500 edged down 0.1%, indicating cautious equity sentiment. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed speakers for further policy signals, as the hawkish tone supports higher yields and continued yen weakness, while GBP/JPY remains a key beneficiary of the divergence in currency performance.
USDJPY
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
XAU/USD has surged nearly $300 in a breakout rally last week, reigniting bullish momentum and drawing renewed investor interest in the precious metal. According to Catalyst Funds' David Miller, gold has a clear path back to $5,000 per ounce within the next two years, with an estimated 9% gain projected for the remainder of 2026. The rally reflects persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, continued central bank gold accumulation, and sustained demand for safe-haven assets amid global risk factors. The scale of last week's move suggests strong institutional participation, though Miller acknowledges prices may need a period of consolidation to digest the rapid advance before resuming their upward trajectory. Near-term resistance sits at the $5,000 psychological level, while support has likely formed around the pre-breakout base approximately $300 below current levels. For forex traders, the gold rally carries significant USD implications, as sustained strength in XAU/USD typically correlates with broader dollar weakness. Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve commentary and inflation data for catalysts that could either accelerate or temper gold's advance.
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is trading mixed against major counterparts as global market sentiment remains closely tied to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions. Currency pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are consolidating within narrow ranges as traders await clearer guidance on the Fed's rate trajectory. The uncertainty has kept volatility subdued, with market participants reluctant to establish significant positions ahead of potential policy-shifting commentary from Fed officials. Risk appetite remains fragile, with safe-haven flows providing intermittent support to the dollar and Japanese yen, while commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and CAD face headwinds from the cautious global backdrop. Near-term direction for the dollar index hinges on incoming economic data and any shifts in Fed rate expectations, with markets currently pricing in a delicate balance between potential rate cuts and a prolonged hold. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed communications and key economic releases for directional catalysts, as a break from current consolidation ranges could trigger sharp moves across major pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has moved higher as the Japanese yen weakened across the board during Monday's session, coinciding with US equity futures erasing overnight gains and crude oil climbing to a one-week high. The yen's slide reflects persistent yield differentials between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, with traders reassessing near-term monetary policy expectations from both central banks. Rising oil prices, which increase Japan's import costs given its status as a major energy importer, have added further downside pressure on the yen by worsening the nation's trade balance outlook. The reversal in US futures from overnight gains to flat-to-negative territory signals mixed risk appetite, creating a complex environment for carry trade positioning. Near-term resistance for USD/JPY is situated at recent weekly highs, while support likely holds at the session's overnight lows. Traders should closely watch upcoming BOJ policy signals and US economic data releases for directional cues. The correlation between rising crude prices and yen weakness remains a key theme, with further oil gains potentially amplifying USD/JPY upside.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are driving significant moves across Asia-Pacific financial markets, with no resolution in sight for the Iran conflict. Citi has raised its Q3 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel as the ongoing war disrupts key oil supply routes, bolstering the US dollar as a safe-haven asset while weighing on oil-importing currencies such as JPY and KRW. The USD/KRW pair faces additional complexity as the Kosdaq triggered a circuit breaker following a sharp surge in Korean tech stocks, reflecting volatile capital flows in the region. Rising oil prices historically pressure AUD/USD and USD/JPY, with the yen vulnerable due to Japan's heavy reliance on energy imports. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies like CAD may find support from elevated crude levels. Traders should monitor Hormuz developments closely, as any escalation could push Brent above $85 and amplify risk-off positioning. Near-term, USD strength is expected to persist against Asia-Pacific currencies, with key support for USD/JPY around 148.50 and resistance near 151.00.
USDJPY
USDKRW
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
A data-heavy week lies ahead with multiple high-impact events poised to drive volatility across major forex pairs. The Reserve Bank of Australia's rate announcement on Tuesday is the headline event, with AUD/USD traders closely watching for any shift in the RBA's policy stance. USD/JPY will be influenced by the BoJ's Summary of Opinions from its July 31st meeting, where rates were held at 1.00% following a June hike, offering clues on future tightening. Midweek, US CPI data on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday will be critical for USD positioning, as inflation readings directly impact Federal Reserve rate expectations. EUR/USD faces catalysts from German final inflation figures, Eurozone GDP second estimates, and employment data on Friday. USD/NOK may see movement around the Norges Bank announcement on Thursday. GBP/USD traders will monitor UK GDP data. The week culminates with US retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary reading on Friday, both key gauges of US economic resilience that could set the tone for near-term dollar direction.
AUDUSD
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CNH faces upward pressure as China's July CPI data came in softer than expected, cooling to a six-month low alongside easing producer prices. The weaker inflation readings paint a picture of a two-speed Chinese economy, where robust exports and factory output contrast sharply with sluggish domestic consumption. The soft PPI figures suggest persistent deflationary pressures at the factory gate, undermining yuan strength and reinforcing expectations for additional policy easing from Beijing. The data adds urgency to the accelerated fiscal spending measures signalled at July's Politburo meeting, with markets now pricing in more aggressive stimulus deployment in the coming months. For commodity-linked currencies such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD, the implications are mixed — potential stimulus could support commodity demand longer-term, but near-term weakness in Chinese consumer spending weighs on risk sentiment. Traders should monitor upcoming Chinese credit and industrial production data for confirmation of the demand slowdown. Key resistance for USD/CNH sits near recent highs, while support for AUD/USD remains tied to broader risk appetite and China stimulus expectations.
USDCNH
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
