USD/JPY has declined 0.6% to approach the 148.00 level as traders digest implications from Japan's latest election results. The yen's strengthening reflects market positioning ahead of potential policy shifts that could emerge from the electoral outcome. Political uncertainty in Japan often triggers safe-haven flows into the yen, particularly when results suggest possible changes to monetary or fiscal policies. The move extends recent yen strength, with the pair now testing key support at 148.00 after failing to sustain levels above 149.00. Technical momentum indicators suggest further downside pressure, with the next significant support zone at 147.50. Market participants are closely monitoring any statements from Japanese officials regarding currency intervention thresholds, as rapid yen appreciation could prompt verbal or direct intervention. The election results may influence Bank of Japan's policy normalization timeline, adding another layer of complexity to USD/JPY trading dynamics in coming sessions.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD declined following New Zealand's softer-than-expected inflation data, reinforcing expectations for Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts. The weaker CPI print has solidified market pricing for 37 basis points of easing by year-end, keeping downward pressure on the kiwi dollar. The softer inflation readings align with the RBNZ's recent dovish pivot, suggesting the central bank has room to ease monetary policy without risking inflation resurgence. This contrasts with the more hawkish stance from other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, creating a widening interest rate differential unfavorable for NZD. Technical analysis shows NZD/USD testing key support levels, with further downside likely if upcoming economic data continues to disappoint. The cross rate AUD/NZD has also seen movement, with the Australian dollar gaining relative strength despite RBA rate cut expectations, highlighting New Zealand's particularly weak economic position among commodity currencies.
NZDUSD
AUDNZD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY gapped higher at the Asian open, jumping 0.8% to 157.20 as Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday's election. Prime Minister Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito secured only 215 seats, falling short of the 233 needed for control. The political uncertainty has weakened the yen as markets price in potential delays to Bank of Japan policy normalization. Ishiba acknowledged his diminished governing powers while pledging to remain in office to handle critical issues including US trade tariff negotiations with the incoming Trump administration. The pair faces immediate resistance at 158.00, with HSBC analysts warning that 155-160 could trigger BOJ intervention. Support lies at 156.50 (Friday's close). Traders should monitor any signs of verbal intervention from Japanese officials as the pair approaches the psychologically important 160 level.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
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AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has advanced as global political tensions drive risk-off sentiment across financial markets, supporting traditional safe-haven demand patterns. The dollar's strength reflects its reserve currency status during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, while gold futures simultaneously benefit from increased hedging activity. Market participants are positioning defensively as political developments create uncertainty about future economic policies and international relations. The US Dollar Index has firmed, indicating broad-based dollar strength against major counterparts. Gold's parallel rise suggests investors are diversifying safe-haven exposure rather than concentrating in single assets. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY testing resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for continued upside if tensions persist. The correlation between political uncertainty and currency movements remains strong, with traders closely monitoring developments for directional cues. This environment typically favors the dollar and gold while pressuring risk-sensitive currencies and emerging market assets until clarity emerges on geopolitical fronts.
USDJPY
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The Singapore dollar is demonstrating increasing safe-haven characteristics, though experts agree it has not yet achieved the established crisis-currency status of the Japanese yen or Swiss franc. Singapore's strong economic fundamentals, substantial foreign reserves, and political stability contribute to SGD's growing appeal during market turbulence. The Monetary Authority of Singapore's prudent policy management and the nation's AAA credit rating enhance confidence in the currency. However, the SGD lacks the deep liquidity and historical precedent that define traditional safe havens like JPY and CHF. Market data shows SGD appreciation during recent risk-off episodes, though movements remain more muted compared to established safe-haven currencies. Analysts suggest Singapore's currency could gradually acquire enhanced safe-haven status over time, potentially approaching Swiss franc levels given similar economic profiles. The evolution reflects shifting global dynamics and Asia's growing financial importance, with SGD positioned as a regional stability anchor.
USDSGD
SGDJPY
CHFSGD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD declined 0.4% to 0.5920 during Monday's Asian session following weaker-than-expected New Zealand inflation data. The Q2 CPI rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, missing the 0.6% forecast, while annual inflation decelerated to 3.3% from 4.0% previously. The softer inflation reading increases the likelihood of more aggressive rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with markets now pricing in a 50-basis-point reduction at the August meeting. The kiwi dollar found support at 0.5910, coinciding with the 50-day moving average, while resistance emerged at 0.5950. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential if support breaks, with the next target at 0.5880. The diverging monetary policy outlook between the RBNZ and other major central banks continues to weigh on NZD crosses, particularly against the USD which maintains its haven appeal.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
HSBC analysts have identified 155-160 as a critical intervention threshold for USD/JPY, warning that the Bank of Japan may act decisively if the pair breaches these levels. The bank considers 146-152 as fair value range based on current fundamentals, suggesting the yen is significantly undervalued at current levels near 157.00. Historical intervention patterns show the BOJ typically intervenes when moves become disorderly or exceed psychological boundaries. The last major intervention occurred in April 2024 when USD/JPY approached 160, resulting in a sharp 5% reversal. Current positioning data indicates heavy speculative long USD/JPY positions, increasing vulnerability to intervention-driven unwinding. Traders should implement strict risk management above 158.00, with potential for rapid 200-300 pip moves if intervention materializes. The MOF and BOJ continue monitoring excessive volatility, though verbal warnings have intensified recently.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has dropped sharply to 147.85 at the weekly open, representing a significant yen appreciation of approximately 1.5% from Friday's close. EUR/JPY similarly declined to 172.10, reflecting broad-based yen strength across major pairs. The catalyst for this movement is Japan's ruling coalition losing its upper house majority in Sunday's election, creating political uncertainty that traditionally benefits the safe-haven yen. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's weakened political position could complicate future policy implementation, including potential Bank of Japan monetary policy normalization. Technical indicators show USD/JPY breaking below the key 149.00 support level, with next support at 147.00. The political instability may delay any hawkish BOJ moves, but paradoxically strengthens the yen through risk-off sentiment. Traders should monitor 150.00 as resistance for any rebound attempts, while further political developments could extend yen gains.
USDJPY
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar enters a crucial week with the Federal Reserve in its quiet period before the July 30 FOMC meeting, limiting official guidance on monetary policy direction. Thursday's S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMI data for both Europe and the US will be closely watched for economic momentum signals. US initial jobless claims improved to 221K last week, retreating from recent highs near 250K and reinforcing labor market resilience. The European Central Bank meeting is expected to maintain current rates, though officials may signal increased readiness for future easing amid persistent tariff concerns. Dollar positioning remains cautious as traders balance solid employment data against potential PMI disappointments. Technical levels on major USD pairs suggest consolidation ahead of the data releases, with EUR/USD hovering near 1.0850 resistance and USD/JPY testing 156.00 support.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faced mild selling pressure following the latest Baker Hughes rig count data, which showed oil rigs declining by 2 to 422 while gas rigs surged by 9 to 117, bringing total rigs up by 7 to 544. This mixed energy sector signal creates uncertainty for USD strength, as lower oil rig counts suggest potential supply constraints that could boost oil prices and inflation expectations. However, the significant increase in gas rigs indicates expanding natural gas production capacity, which may help moderate energy costs. The divergent trends in oil versus gas drilling activity reflect the complex energy landscape affecting the dollar. Currency pairs with commodity-linked currencies like CAD and NOK could see increased volatility as markets digest these conflicting signals. Traders should monitor how energy prices react to these rig count changes, as sustained moves in oil and gas could influence Federal Reserve policy considerations and broader USD momentum in the coming sessions.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is experiencing a notable pullback from recent highs, prompting debate whether this represents mere technical consolidation or signals a deeper bullish reversal pattern. The pair has retraced approximately 0.5% from its weekly peak near 1.3150, finding initial support at the 1.3080 level where the 20-day moving average converges. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with RSI cooling from overbought territory while the broader uptrend structure remains intact above 1.3000. Market participants are weighing recent UK economic resilience against dollar strength dynamics, creating a tug-of-war in price action. Key resistance stands at 1.3150, while a break below 1.3050 would suggest deeper correction potential toward 1.2980. Traders should monitor upcoming UK retail sales data and any shifts in Bank of England rate expectations, which could provide directional clarity for the sterling's next major move.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD has staged a 0.4% recovery to 0.6120, bouncing from recent lows as traders position ahead of crucial New Zealand inflation data that could influence the RBNZ's August policy decision. The kiwi dollar found support at 0.6080 after last week's 1.2% decline, with technical buyers emerging at oversold levels. Market expectations center on the upcoming CPI release, with economists forecasting a continued moderation in price pressures that could justify further RBNZ easing. Current pricing suggests a 65% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the August meeting, though stronger-than-expected inflation could shift these odds significantly. Technical resistance appears at 0.6150, coinciding with the 50-day moving average, while support holds at 0.6080. The pair's near-term trajectory will likely depend on whether CPI data confirms the RBNZ's confidence in returning inflation to target range.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is experiencing downward pressure across major pairs following the IMF's latest assessment highlighting complex economic conditions shaped by escalating trade tensions since April. While specific price movements were not detailed in the initial report, the IMF's cautionary stance on global economic indicators suggests potential headwinds for risk assets and safe-haven flows. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on market sentiment, with traders monitoring developments for potential currency volatility. The dollar's status as a safe-haven currency could see mixed reactions depending on how severe the IMF views these trade disruptions. Technical traders should watch key support levels on major USD pairs as the market digests this development. The lack of specific economic data points in the IMF statement leaves room for interpretation, but the overall tone suggests caution for dollar bulls in the near term as global trade dynamics remain uncertain.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD maintains strength above 1.3100, supported by robust UK economic data that has significantly dampened Bank of England rate cut expectations for 2024. UK inflation surprised to the upside at 2.2% year-over-year, exceeding the 2.1% forecast, while employment data showed unemployment holding steady at 4.2% with wage growth remaining elevated at 5.7%. These figures have prompted markets to reprice BoE easing, with traders now expecting only one 25 basis point cut this year compared to two previously anticipated. The pound has gained 0.6% against the dollar this week, finding technical support at 1.3080 and facing resistance near 1.3180. Sterling's outperformance reflects the diverging monetary policy outlook between the UK and other major economies. Further upside potential exists if upcoming UK retail sales data continues the positive trend, potentially pushing GBP/USD toward the 1.3200 psychological level.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar experienced broad-based weakness during European trading hours, with major pairs posting gains against the greenback following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. EUR/USD climbed 0.4% to test 1.0920 resistance, while GBP/USD advanced 0.35% toward 1.2850. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.5% to 103.20, breaking below key support at 103.50. Waller's remarks suggested the Fed may be approaching the end of its tightening cycle sooner than markets anticipated, citing moderating inflation pressures and potential economic headwinds. USD/JPY dropped 0.6% to 148.50 as safe-haven flows benefited the yen. The dovish shift in Fed communication has prompted traders to reassess rate differential trades that had supported dollar strength. Technical indicators show the DXY approaching oversold conditions, with the next major support at 102.80. Markets now await next week's FOMC minutes for further clarity on the Fed's policy trajectory.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY maintains its bullish stance above 149.00, supported by yesterday's robust US retail sales data that exceeded expectations. June retail sales surged 0.7% month-over-month, beating forecasts of 0.5% and signaling resilient consumer spending despite elevated interest rates. The pair trades at 149.20, up 0.15% in Asian session continuation. Core retail sales, excluding autos, jumped 0.8%, reinforcing the narrative of US economic strength that supports the dollar. The Bank of Japan's continued ultra-loose monetary policy stance creates a widening rate differential favoring USD strength. Technical analysis shows immediate resistance at 149.50, with a break potentially opening the path toward the psychological 150.00 level. Support holds firm at 148.80, coinciding with the 20-day moving average. Traders remain cautious of potential BOJ intervention above 150.00, though Japanese officials have remained relatively quiet. The pair's upward trajectory likely continues as long as US economic data remains supportive.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar has come under pressure following former President Trump's harsh criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him 'too late' and one of his 'worst appointments.' Trump accused Powell and the Fed of 'choking out' the housing market with high interest rates, making homeownership difficult for young buyers. The political pressure adds uncertainty to the Fed's policy outlook, with markets already pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025. The dollar index (DXY) has retreated 0.2% from daily highs as traders reassess Fed policy expectations amid mounting political rhetoric. With housing affordability becoming a key political issue, increased pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy could weaken the dollar's yield advantage. Near-term support for DXY sits at 104.50, while resistance remains at 105.20. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed communications for any shift in tone regarding the pace of potential rate adjustments.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY maintains its bullish momentum near 156.50, supported by the widening monetary policy divergence between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a passive Bank of Japan. The pair has gained 0.4% (62 pips) in today's session, extending its weekly advance to 1.2%. The Fed's higher-for-longer stance contrasts sharply with the BoJ's reluctance to normalize policy despite rising inflation pressures. US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield holding above 4.25%, enhancing the dollar's carry trade appeal. Japanese officials have expressed verbal concerns about yen weakness but have not signaled imminent intervention. Technical indicators show USD/JPY testing resistance at 156.75, with a break potentially opening the path to 157.50. Support levels are established at 156.00 and 155.50. Traders should remain vigilant for any shift in BoJ rhetoric or surprise intervention, which could trigger sharp reversals in the pair.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is staging a broad rebound against major currencies, with the DXY index climbing 0.5% to 104.85 as risk-off sentiment returns to markets. EUR/USD has retreated 0.4% to 1.0920, while GBP/USD dropped 0.3% to 1.2680. The dollar's recovery follows a period of consolidation and is supported by resilient US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive stance longer than other central banks. US 10-year Treasury yields have risen 8 basis points to 4.28%, reinforcing the dollar's yield advantage. Technical analysis shows the DXY breaking above its 50-day moving average at 104.70, targeting resistance at 105.30. EUR/USD faces immediate support at 1.0900, with a break potentially accelerating declines toward 1.0850. The rebound could gather pace if upcoming US data continues to show economic resilience, particularly in employment and inflation metrics.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
