EUR/USD has staged a notable rebound from a four-month low of 1.1507, recovering after a sharp 4.8% decline from its 2026 high. The pair's reversal comes ahead of the closely watched US CPI release, which could serve as the catalyst for a more sustained directional move. Analysts have identified 1.1673 as the critical upside trigger level — a decisive break above this zone could confirm a bullish reversal pattern and open the path toward further recovery. The earlier selloff was driven by a combination of dollar strength and shifting rate expectations, but the bounce suggests buyers are defending key support zones. The February CPI data, which came in line with expectations, has so far provided limited additional downside pressure on the euro. From a technical perspective, the 1.1507 low now represents a significant support floor, while the 1.1673 level serves as the line in the sand for bulls. Traders should monitor price action around this trigger closely, as a failed breakout could lead to a retest of recent lows.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Crude oil prices rebounded sharply above $90 per barrel on March 11 as escalating US-Iran military tensions overshadowed the prospect of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release by the US government. The surge in energy prices weighed on equity markets, with stocks dropping broadly as traders repriced inflation expectations and risk premiums across asset classes. The rally in oil carries significant forex implications, as higher energy costs tend to benefit commodity-exporting currencies such as CAD and NOK while pressuring energy-importing economies' currencies, particularly JPY and EUR. The market largely dismissed SPR release headlines, suggesting traders view the geopolitical supply disruption risk as more impactful than potential government intervention. Rising oil prices also feed directly into inflation concerns, potentially complicating central bank rate paths globally. The EU has already flagged that the conflict could push eurozone inflation above 3%. For forex traders, the oil spike amplifies volatility across USD pairs and commodity-linked currencies, with USDCAD and USDJPY likely to see increased activity as geopolitical headlines dominate near-term sentiment.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar traded in a tentative range during the European session as markets positioned ahead of two major catalysts: the IEA's anticipated announcement on strategic oil reserve releases at 1300 GMT and the upcoming US CPI report. Oil prices crept higher after initial volatility surrounding geopolitical tensions, with G7 energy ministers reaffirming support for using strategic oil reserves to stabilize supply. Japan confirmed plans to release reserves from both private sector and state stockpiles. The ECB added to the cautious tone, with policymaker Kazimir suggesting a rate hike on Iran-related inflation pressures may be closer than previously thought, while Villeroy struck a more measured stance. Next week's central bank bonanza, featuring multiple policy decisions, is adding to positioning uncertainty. EUR/USD and USD/JPY traders are particularly focused on CPI forecast distribution, as any upside surprise could reinforce dollar strength. Near-term, the dollar index is consolidating as traders weigh energy supply relief against persistent inflation risks and geopolitical premium.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD has decisively broken above the critical 0.7140 resistance level, a threshold that has capped upside attempts multiple times since 2022, signaling the start of a new bullish impulsive sequence. The breakout represents a significant technical milestone for the pair, suggesting accumulated buying pressure has finally overcome a multi-year barrier. The move higher appears driven by a combination of improving risk appetite and commodity-linked demand for the Australian dollar. Technical analysis confirms the breakout with momentum indicators aligning to the upside, with the next resistance zone potentially around the 0.7200-0.7250 area. Support is now established at the former resistance of 0.7140, which should act as a floor for any pullbacks. Traders should monitor whether the pair sustains above 0.7140 on a daily close basis to confirm the breakout validity. The bullish structure suggests further upside potential, though traders should remain cautious of broader USD dynamics and any geopolitical shocks that could reverse risk sentiment quickly.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Major forex pairs experienced temporary relief as reports emerged of the IEA coordinating a supply patch to address oil market disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions. EUR/USD found a modest bid while USD/CAD pulled back from recent highs as the energy supply intervention eased some of the risk premium embedded in crude-sensitive currencies. The reported IEA measure aims to bridge supply gaps through coordinated strategic reserve releases, though analysts caution this offers only a short-term fix rather than a structural solution to underlying supply risks. The US Dollar Index futures softened marginally as the safe-haven bid moderated on the news. EUR/GBP also saw limited movement as both European currencies benefited similarly from the easing of energy-related inflation fears. Traders are treating this as a temporary reprieve, with the focus shifting back to fundamental drivers including upcoming central bank decisions and inflation data. Support for EUR/USD sits near recent lows while USD/CAD resistance remains at elevated levels established during the initial geopolitical shock.
EURUSD
EURGBP
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
G7 energy ministers have formally reaffirmed their support for utilizing strategic oil reserves to address current market conditions, a development with direct implications for oil-sensitive currency pairs such as USD/CAD. The joint statement endorsed proactive measures including coordinated reserve releases, though markets have largely priced in this outcome since discussions began earlier in the week. The announcement reinforces downward pressure on crude oil prices, which could weigh on the Canadian dollar given Canada's status as a major oil exporter. For USD/CAD traders, sustained oil weakness typically supports the pair's upside as CAD underperforms. However, the muted market reaction reflects the fact that this policy stance was widely anticipated. Traders should monitor actual implementation details, including volumes and timing of reserve releases, for fresh directional cues. Near-term, USD/CAD may consolidate as the market awaits concrete action beyond political rhetoric. The broader implications extend to other commodity-linked currencies including AUD and NOK, which could face headwinds if oil prices decline further on increased supply expectations.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD managed to stage a recovery rally but remains under structural pressure as multiple bearish factors continue to weigh on the pair. The British pound found some buying interest as markets partially digested the initial shock from geopolitical escalation, yet elevated crude oil prices pose a persistent headwind for the UK economy given its energy import dependence. WTI crude futures remain elevated, sustaining inflationary pressures that complicate the Bank of England's policy outlook. The pair's recovery appears technically corrective in nature rather than a fundamental reversal, with resistance likely to cap gains at nearby levels. Traders are watching for a potential retest of recent lows if risk sentiment deteriorates again or if oil prices resume their upward trajectory. The near-term outlook for GBP/USD remains cautiously bearish, with the pair vulnerable to further downside should geopolitical tensions escalate. Key support levels below current prices could be tested if the dollar reasserts its safe-haven strength amid ongoing uncertainty in energy markets.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Financial markets were rocked by US-Israel military strikes on Iran, triggering a sharp surge in the US dollar and crude oil prices while risk assets sold off aggressively. The S&P 500 dropped as risk aversion gripped markets, with the US dollar benefiting from safe-haven flows across multiple pairs. AUD/USD came under significant selling pressure as the risk-sensitive Australian dollar weakened on deteriorating global sentiment, while USD/CAD spiked higher before moderating as Canada's oil-linked economy received conflicting signals from surging crude prices versus risk-off positioning. AUD/CAD also experienced volatility as both commodity currencies reacted differently to the geopolitical shock. The initial market reaction reflected classic risk-off dynamics with the dollar, gold, and oil all strengthening simultaneously. Traders are now assessing whether the military action will escalate further or if diplomatic channels can de-escalate tensions. Near-term, USD strength is expected to persist as geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, with AUD/USD particularly vulnerable to further downside on any escalation.
AUDUSD
USDCAD
AUDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD is positioned for a potential breakout as a hawkish tilt from the Reserve Bank of Australia intersects with escalating geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, creating a complex trading backdrop. The RBA's increasingly hawkish monetary policy stance is providing fundamental support for the Australian dollar, as markets price in the possibility of tighter policy settings or a prolonged pause at elevated interest rates. Simultaneously, rising tensions near the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments — are injecting volatility into crude oil markets, with WTI futures responding to supply disruption risks. For Australia, higher oil prices present a mixed picture: they support commodity currencies broadly but could also fan domestic inflationary pressures, reinforcing the RBA's hawkish bias. AUD/JPY is also drawing attention as a risk-sentiment barometer. Traders should monitor both RBA communications and Hormuz developments closely, as the convergence of these factors could trigger a decisive directional move in AUD/USD in the near term.
AUDUSD
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The Asia-Pacific FX session saw multiple cross-currents as the IEA proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves, a move aimed at calming energy markets amid geopolitical tensions following a suspected projectile strike on a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz. The Australian dollar faces significant repricing as Westpac raised its RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, now expecting rate hikes in both March and May, with multiple Australian bank analysts piling on to forecast a hike next week. This hawkish shift provides underlying support for AUD/USD. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains under scrutiny as Japan's PPI data highlighted the compounding effects of a weak yen and oil price shocks on the inflation outlook, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy calculus. The PBOC set the USD/CNY central rate at 6.8917, signaling measured stability for the yuan. Goldman Sachs previewed February US CPI data suggesting a gradual inflation slowdown, though market consensus remains divided. Traders should monitor oil price volatility as a key risk factor across commodity-linked and energy-sensitive currency pairs in the near term.
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY faces mixed signals as Japan's February wholesale inflation data came in softer than expected, while geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict threaten to reignite price pressures. Japan's corporate goods price index rose 2.0% year-over-year in February, slightly below the 2.1% consensus forecast and down from January's 2.3% reading, marking a third consecutive month of easing. However, import prices surged 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest pace since July 2024, driven by the weak yen amplifying commodity costs. Government fuel subsidies have partially offset rising energy prices, but escalating oil prices tied to Middle East tensions could undermine this cushion. The Bank of Japan remains in focus as persistent imported inflation via the weak yen could support the case for further policy normalization. For traders, the interplay between softer domestic PPI and rising import costs creates a tug-of-war for yen direction. A sustained oil price rally would likely weigh further on the yen through higher import bills, while any BOJ hawkish signals could provide near-term yen support. Key levels and upcoming CPI data will be critical for positioning.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices are accelerating to the downside during Monday's session, pressured by a convergence of bearish fundamental and technical factors. On the fundamental front, reports have emerged that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is meeting with government representatives on Tuesday to discuss supply conditions and evaluate whether a coordinated release of strategic oil stocks is warranted. This headline has intensified selling pressure across the energy complex, raising the specter of additional supply entering an already uncertain market. Technically, sellers are regaining control as price action breaks below key support levels, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The breakdown below recent consolidation zones suggests further downside risk if selling pressure persists. For forex traders, declining oil prices carry significant implications for commodity-linked currencies such as CAD, NOK, and AUD, while potentially supporting net energy importers like Japan. Traders should monitor Tuesday's IEA meeting outcomes closely, as any confirmation of a coordinated stock release could amplify the current bearish trend in crude and ripple across currency markets.
USDCAD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices plunged sharply following comments by President Trump suggesting the likely end of the Middle East conflict, triggering mixed sentiment across major forex pairs. The oil price crash has significant implications for commodity-linked currencies, with the Canadian dollar (CAD) facing downward pressure given Canada's status as a major oil exporter, likely pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone also face headwinds from the commodity selloff. For oil-importing nations like Japan, the decline provides a disinflationary tailwind, potentially strengthening JPY crosses. The US dollar itself saw mixed reactions as lower oil prices ease inflation concerns but also signal potential geopolitical shifts that could reshape risk appetite. Traders should monitor key levels on USD/CAD, where the pair may test resistance near recent highs, while AUD/USD could probe lower support zones. The interplay between reduced geopolitical risk premium and its deflationary impact on central bank rate expectations creates a complex trading environment. Near-term volatility is expected to remain elevated as markets digest the full implications of a potential Middle East peace scenario on global energy markets and currency flows.
USDCAD
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is coming under renewed downside pressure as the easing of the recent oil price shock removes a key headwind for the Japanese yen. With crude oil prices retreating sharply, Japan's terms of trade are improving, reducing the energy import burden that had previously weighed on the yen. Simultaneously, Japanese government bond (JGB) 10-year yields continue to trend higher, reflecting shifting expectations around Bank of Japan monetary policy normalization and providing additional support for yen appreciation. The combination of falling oil prices and rising domestic yields creates a favorable backdrop for JPY strength against the US dollar. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY faces key support levels that, if breached, could open the door to a deeper corrective move. Resistance overhead remains firm following the recent consolidation phase. Traders should watch upcoming US economic data releases and any further developments in global energy markets, as both factors will be critical in determining whether USD/JPY extends its decline or finds a floor near current levels.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD has stalled its recent recovery attempt as persistent concerns over China's economic outlook and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance weigh on risk-sensitive currencies. The Australian dollar, heavily influenced by Chinese demand for commodities, faces headwinds as fresh data and sentiment indicators point to softening momentum in China's manufacturing and property sectors. These concerns are dampening demand for the Aussie, which traditionally acts as a proxy for Chinese economic health. On the US side, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer continue to support the US dollar, limiting AUD/USD upside. The pair has struggled to sustain gains above recent resistance levels, with price action suggesting a period of consolidation or potential reversal. Key support lies at recent session lows, while a break above resistance would require a meaningful shift in either Fed rate expectations or Chinese economic sentiment. Traders should monitor upcoming Australian employment data and Chinese PMI releases for the next directional catalyst.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has managed to recover from a recent bearish technical setup, escaping what appeared to be a breakdown trap, but the pair has yet to generate sufficient momentum to establish a convincing bullish reversal. Price action during Monday's session suggests the pair is in a transitional phase, with neither bulls nor bears firmly in control. The recovery from the bearish trap indicates that selling pressure may have been exhausted at lower levels, with buyers stepping in near key support zones to defend the downside. However, the lack of follow-through buying suggests that fundamental headwinds remain, including uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's rate trajectory and broader US dollar dynamics tied to Federal Reserve policy expectations. Technically, GBP/USD needs to reclaim and hold above key resistance levels to confirm a shift in sentiment toward the upside. Failure to do so would leave the pair vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Traders should watch upcoming UK economic data, including GDP and employment figures, for catalysts that could break the current impasse.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is experiencing heightened turbulence as markets grapple with unresolved geopolitical tensions surrounding the conflict over Iran, which continue to inject volatility into currency and energy markets. The ongoing uncertainty regarding the duration and escalation potential of the conflict is creating erratic price action in crude oil, which in turn is influencing risk sentiment and capital flows across major forex pairs. The euro faces a complex backdrop, as rising energy costs from elevated oil prices threaten Eurozone economic growth and could complicate the European Central Bank's policy calculus. Meanwhile, the US dollar is benefiting intermittently from safe-haven demand, though gains are being tempered by domestic economic concerns. EUR/USD has been oscillating within a wide intraday range, reflecting the tug-of-war between geopolitical risk aversion and shifting rate differential expectations. Key technical levels remain in focus, with support and resistance bands widening amid the elevated volatility. Traders should exercise caution and consider reduced position sizes given the unpredictable nature of geopolitical headlines driving the current market environment.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Risk-sensitive currency pairs including EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and EUR/GBP are experiencing a temporary reprieve as market participants reassess positioning amid conflicting macro signals. Rising energy costs continue to weigh on economic outlooks, particularly for energy-importing economies in Europe, yet broader risk appetite has improved enough to lift risk assets in the near term. The US Dollar Index futures have softened, providing tailwinds for EUR/USD and AUD/USD, as traders digest the implications of elevated energy prices on Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy trajectories. Higher energy input costs could sustain inflationary pressures, potentially delaying rate cuts across major central banks. EUR/GBP remains in focus as divergent energy exposure between the Eurozone and the UK creates relative value opportunities. Traders should monitor crude oil price developments and upcoming inflation data releases, which could shift sentiment quickly. Near-term, the relief rally in risk currencies may face resistance if energy prices continue climbing, as this would reinforce stagflationary concerns and potentially reverse dollar weakness.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is trading in a muted range during the early European session on Monday as the economic calendar offers little impetus for directional moves. Scheduled releases include the French trade balance and Italian PPI report, both considered low-tier data points unlikely to shift European Central Bank expectations or trigger meaningful price action. Market participants are largely sidelining traditional macro catalysts as attention remains firmly fixed on escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions, which have become the dominant driver of risk sentiment across currency and commodity markets. The geopolitical overhang is supporting safe-haven flows into the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc, while risk-sensitive currencies face headwinds. Traders should monitor headlines around the US-Iran conflict closely, as any escalation or de-escalation could produce sharp volatility spikes across major pairs. Near-term positioning is likely to remain cautious with thin liquidity amplifying potential moves. Risk management is paramount in the current environment as event-driven volatility supersedes scheduled data releases.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
A rebound across major US equity indices has prompted fresh long positions to unwind, creating ripple effects across forex and commodities markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have seen a corrective bounce, triggering profit-taking and position squaring among traders who had recently established bullish bets. The USD/JPY pair is a key focus as the Japanese yen reacts to shifting risk sentiment — a recovery in equities typically diminishes safe-haven demand for the yen, supporting the dollar. Gold (XAU/USD) is also impacted, with the precious metal facing headwinds as risk appetite improves and traders rotate back into equities. Market participants are closely watching whether this rebound represents a sustainable recovery or merely a short-covering rally within a broader corrective phase. Key technical levels on equity indices will likely dictate near-term forex positioning, particularly for USD/JPY. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data releases and Federal Reserve commentary for further directional cues across these interlinked asset classes.
USDJPY
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
