"So were in Vietnam for 18 years. Iraq, many, many years....I've been doing this for...six weeks."For what it's worth, this is week nine.Trump says he has been speaking with Iran and they want a dealWe got rid of the Iranian leadership..
Source: Finnhub
Seen as a major safe haven currency, JPY could not find any appeal during the latest Middle East conflict. Here we take a look at an intraday time frame analysis for the USD/JPY.
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
Risk-sensitive assets are under significant pressure following reports from Israeli media outlet N12 that Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from the nuclear negotiation team, raising fears of a complete breakdown in diplomatic talks. The development has triggered a classic risk-off move across forex markets, with safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc strengthening against the US dollar and other risk-correlated pairs. USD/JPY is likely seeing downward pressure as traders flee to traditional havens, while commodity currencies such as AUD and CAD face selling. Oil prices are expected to spike on supply disruption fears tied to renewed Middle East tensions, which could further weigh on energy-importing nations' currencies. Gold is also likely benefiting from the flight to safety. Traders should monitor USD/JPY support near recent lows and watch for further geopolitical escalation, as any confirmation of a full negotiation collapse could amplify risk-off flows. Key levels to watch include resistance on JPY and CHF crosses. The situation remains fluid, and headline risk is elevated heading into the next sessions.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar received a bullish boost following significantly stronger-than-expected S&P Global PMI data for April. The services index printed at 51.3 versus 50.3 expected, rising from 49.8 prior, while manufacturing surged to 54.0 against 52.5 consensus — its highest reading since May 2022. The composite index climbed to 52.0 from 51.4, comfortably beating the 50.5 forecast. The data paints a picture of resilient US economic activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which posted its best performance in nearly four years. However, inflationary pressures are intensifying, with input costs hitting an 11-month high and output prices rising at their fastest pace since July 2022, potentially complicating Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Employment remained essentially flat for a second consecutive month, suggesting labor market softening. For USD pairs, the combination of strong growth and sticky inflation is supportive of a higher-for-longer Fed rate stance, which could pressure EUR/USD toward lower support levels while lifting USD/JPY. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed commentary for further direction.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD faces downward pressure as UK business sentiment deteriorates sharply, with the latest CBI industrial survey revealing the most pessimistic outlook since the COVID pandemic. While April's manufacturing PMI initially suggested improved business activity, the underlying data paints a different picture. The apparent uptick was largely driven by firms frontloading orders to build safety stocks ahead of anticipated price increases and supply chain disruptions, rather than genuine demand growth. This frontloading effect masks weakening fundamentals across UK industry. The CBI data provides a more accurate reflection of business confidence, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is bracing for tougher conditions ahead. Rising input costs and supply constraints remain key concerns for UK producers, potentially complicating the Bank of England's policy calculus as it balances inflation risks against slowing economic momentum. Traders should monitor upcoming UK inflation data and BoE commentary for further directional cues on sterling pairs. Near-term weakness in GBP may persist if subsequent sentiment indicators confirm the deteriorating industrial outlook.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD faces downside pressure following a sharp miss in Eurozone April flash services PMI, which dropped to 47.4 against expectations of 49.8 and well below the prior reading of 50.2, pushing the sector firmly into contraction territory. The composite PMI also disappointed at 48.6 versus 50.1 expected, down from the previous 50.7, signaling a broader economic slowdown across the bloc. Manufacturing PMI provided a rare bright spot, rising to 52.2 versus 50.9 expected, though analysts caution this strength likely reflects frontloading of orders rather than genuine demand recovery, a pattern consistent with earlier French and German regional reports. The divergence between a contracting services sector and temporarily inflated manufacturing data raises concerns about the sustainability of Eurozone economic momentum. For the European Central Bank, the weak services data could reinforce the case for maintaining an accommodative policy stance. Traders should monitor EUR/USD for potential tests of nearby support levels, as sustained weakness in the dominant services sector may weigh on euro sentiment in the near term.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Risk sentiment has turned fragile across global markets, with S&P 500 futures declining 0.5% in early Wednesday trading after overnight fake news chatter disrupted a surprising equity rally from the prior session. The previous day's stock market gains had come despite rising oil prices, suggesting an already precarious optimism among investors. The swift reversal underscores how vulnerable current market positioning is to negative headline risk, with a single adverse development capable of unwinding recent gains. Rising oil prices add a stagflationary undertone, potentially supporting commodity-linked currencies such as CAD while pressuring risk-sensitive pairs. The US dollar may see mixed flows, benefiting from safe-haven demand but facing headwinds if equity weakness deepens and rate expectations shift. Traders should monitor USD/JPY and AUD/USD closely, as both pairs are highly sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. Near-term price action will likely be driven by headline flow rather than technical levels, suggesting elevated volatility and the need for cautious position sizing.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
A brief but sharp market dislocation occurred during Wednesday's session after unverified social media reports of an attack on Tehran triggered risk-off flows across multiple asset classes. Crude oil surged higher while equity indices sold off rapidly, with traders scrambling to adjust positions and triggering cascading stop-loss orders. The move highlighted the fragile state of market liquidity and elevated geopolitical sensitivity currently priced into forex and commodity markets. Safe-haven currencies such as JPY and CHF likely saw momentary inflows against risk-sensitive pairs before the fake news was identified and positions were unwound. The entire episode reversed within minutes, with oil, equities, and currency pairs returning to pre-event levels. The incident underscores the importance of verifying news sources before acting on headlines, particularly in thin liquidity conditions. Traders should remain cautious of similar flash moves, as algorithmic trading amplifies initial reactions. Near-term, USD/JPY and USD/CHF remain sensitive to any genuine escalation in Middle East tensions, with volatility likely to stay elevated.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
