The bond market is quiet but it won't stay that way

There are some major events coming that could spark a rethink about the current consensus outlook, which is something like:A moderate acceleration in growthSteady to slightly worsening jobs market2-3 Fed rate cuts in 2026Declining inflation10-12% equity market gainsThat's a cut-and-paste forecast for most years and it's such a consensus call this year that it's dangerously complacent, especially in a Trump-run world.The trade so far in 2026 has mostly been 'risk on' but if you zoom way in on...