EUR/USD eyes July US PCE inflation print as Fed policy signal looms

EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of Wednesday's July PCE price index release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and the key input for the next policy decision. A softer core PCE reading would reinforce expectations for continued Fed easing, undermining the dollar and opening room for the euro to extend higher, while an upside surprise would revive the case for a patient Fed and prompt a corrective pullback in the pair. Positioning has been supportive for EUR/USD, with the single currency benefiting from a firmer eurozone rate outlook, but the market has largely priced a benign inflation path, leaving asymmetric risk around a hot print. Technically, the pair remains in an established uptrend, with buyers defending trendline and moving-average support on dips and resistance sitting at the recent range highs. Traders should expect an initial volatility spike on the headline, then watch whether spot closes above prior resistance to confirm continuation. Failure to hold support would signal a deeper consolidation phase before the trend resumes.