GBP/USD in focus as UK retail sales seen falling 0.1%, testing BOE hike case
The source reports no price move, pip figure or technical levels for sterling. The focus is today's UK retail sales release for September, which comes as the latest UK inflation and labour market figures have given the Bank of England plenty to consider ahead of its November meeting. Consensus expects retail sales to fall 0.1% month-on-month, after a 0.5% rise in August. On an annual basis, sales are expected to grow 1.0%, slowing from 2.4% previously. The release is framed as a test of the case for further BOE rate hikes. A reading in line with or weaker than expectations would point to softer consumer spending momentum. A stronger outcome would add to the data the BOE weighs before November. GBP traders may see volatility around the release, with the result feeding directly into expectations for the BOE's next policy decision.
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