EUR/USD technical analysis on the weekly timeframe indicates potential for continued upside momentum, with the pair consolidating above key support at 1.0780. The weekly chart shows a bullish flag pattern formation, suggesting a measured move target near 1.0950. RSI remains in positive territory at 58, indicating room for further gains without entering overbought conditions. The 20-week moving average at 1.0745 provides dynamic support, while the 50-week MA at 1.0820 has been successfully breached. DXY futures show corresponding weakness, testing support at 105.20. Volume patterns confirm buyer interest on dips, with increasing participation above 1.0800. Key resistance levels include 1.0870 (January high) and 1.0920 (December 2023 peak). A weekly close above 1.0870 would confirm the bullish continuation pattern, targeting the psychological 1.1000 level.
EURUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index declined 0.4% overnight as mounting concerns over fiscal deficits weighed on sentiment, while gold prices climbed 1.2% to $2,385 per ounce. US jobless claims fell to 215,000, beating expectations of 220,000 and demonstrating continued labor market strength. Treasury yields eased from recent highs as investors reassessed deficit concerns following mixed signals from policymakers. The dollar weakness was broad-based, with EUR/USD gaining 45 pips to 1.0875 and GBP/USD advancing to 1.2730. Despite strong PMI data showing economic momentum, traders remain cautious about the sustainability of US fiscal policies. Technical indicators suggest the dollar index faces resistance at 104.50, with support at 103.80. The combination of debt concerns and solid economic data creates a complex trading environment, potentially limiting aggressive dollar positioning ahead of next week's Fed speakers.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD traded flat around 1.0865 following comments from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane expressing confidence that services inflation will decrease in coming months. Lane's remarks come as Eurozone services inflation remains elevated at 4.0%, well above the ECB's 2% target. The euro showed limited reaction as markets had already priced in gradual disinflation expectations. Current ECB projections indicate services inflation moderating to 2.8% by year-end, supporting the case for measured rate cuts. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD consolidating between 1.0850 support and 1.0880 resistance, with the 50-day moving average at 1.0870 acting as a pivot point. Traders await next week's Eurozone inflation data for confirmation of the disinflationary trend. A break above 1.0880 could target 1.0920, while failure to hold 1.0850 might expose 1.0820 support levels.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD jumped 65 pips to 1.2745 after UK retail sales surged 3.4% in April, dramatically exceeding the 0.4% forecast and marking the strongest growth in three months. The data suggests UK consumer resilience despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures, with clothing and household goods leading gains. Sterling strength was further supported by improving consumer confidence indicators and expectations that the Bank of England may maintain higher rates longer than peers. The pair broke above key resistance at 1.2720, opening the path toward 1.2780 and potentially the psychological 1.2800 level. Volume indicators confirm strong buying interest, while the RSI at 68 approaches overbought territory. Immediate support has formed at 1.2720 (former resistance), with deeper support at 1.2680. The robust retail data reinforces the UK's economic outperformance narrative, potentially attracting further sterling buyers.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD advanced to 1.0875, gaining 0.4% as the US dollar faced pressure from multiple fronts including fiscal concerns, potential Fed policy shifts, and technical breakdown. The dollar index dropped below the crucial 104.00 support level, triggering additional selling pressure across major pairs. European economic data showed surprising resilience, with German business confidence improving for the third consecutive month. Markets are pricing in a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut by September, while ECB officials maintain a hawkish stance on inflation. Technical momentum indicators favor further euro gains, with the MACD showing bullish divergence and the 20-day moving average providing dynamic support at 1.0840. Resistance levels stand at 1.0900 and 1.0935. The confluence of dollar weakness and improving European fundamentals suggests continued upside potential for EUR/USD in the near term.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD declined 0.6% to 1.3640 as the Canadian dollar strengthened on the back of rising oil prices and broad US dollar weakness. WTI crude oil surged 2.1% to $78.50 per barrel on supply concerns and improving demand outlook, directly benefiting the commodity-linked loonie. The pair's recent bounce from 1.3600 proved short-lived as sellers emerged near the 1.3700 resistance level. Canadian employment data due next week could provide additional direction, with economists expecting 22,000 jobs added in May. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD breaking below the ascending trendline from April lows, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Immediate support lies at 1.3620, followed by the psychological 1.3600 level. Resistance is seen at 1.3680 and 1.3700. The combination of higher oil prices and dollar weakness creates a favorable environment for continued CAD strength.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Gold/USD (XAU/USD) has shown remarkable resilience, climbing 0.5% to $2,435 per ounce despite a strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY) which rose 0.3% to 104.50. The precious metal's counterintuitive rally comes amid robust US economic indicators, including better-than-expected retail sales growth of 0.7% and unemployment claims dropping to 218,000. Traditional correlations suggest gold should weaken against a stronger dollar, but safe-haven demand and concerns over geopolitical tensions continue to support prices. Technical analysis shows gold breaking above the key resistance at $2,420, with next targets at $2,450 and the all-time high near $2,485. Support levels are established at $2,400 and $2,380. The disconnect between gold and dollar strength suggests underlying market anxiety about global economic stability, potentially offering traders opportunities in both gold futures and currency pairs like EUR/USD which may face additional pressure from dollar strength.
XAUUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has advanced 0.4% to 1.3650 as markets price in the increasing probability of Trump's proposed tax bill passing into law, raising concerns about ballooning US government debt. The tax proposal, which includes significant corporate tax cuts and stimulus measures, could add an estimated $2.5 trillion to the federal deficit over ten years. Despite debt concerns typically weakening a currency, the dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar due to expectations of increased economic activity and potential inflationary pressures that may keep the Federal Reserve hawkish. Oil prices, crucial for CAD strength, have remained stable around $78 per barrel, limiting support for the loonie. Technical indicators show USD/CAD breaking above the 50-day moving average at 1.3620, with next resistance at 1.3700. The pair's momentum suggests further upside potential, especially if US Treasury yields continue rising on fiscal expansion expectations, though any significant oil price rally could cap gains.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
US swap spreads have widened to their highest levels in six months, signaling growing concern about Treasury market conditions and liquidity constraints. The 10-year swap spread expanded to -8 basis points from -12 basis points last week, indicating increased demand for swaps over Treasuries as dealers face balance sheet pressures. This development has strengthened the US Dollar Index by 0.2% to 104.25, putting pressure on major pairs including EUR/USD which declined 0.3% to 1.0520 and USD/JPY which rose 0.4% to 157.80. The widening spreads reflect concerns about Treasury market functioning amid heavy government issuance and reduced dealer capacity. Market participants are monitoring Federal Reserve responses, as similar conditions in 2019 prompted repo market interventions. For forex traders, the dollar's strength from financial stability concerns presents opportunities in USD longs, though excessive Treasury market stress could trigger risk-off flows benefiting safe havens like JPY and CHF.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has strengthened following Germany's Q1 final GDP release showing 0.4% quarterly growth, doubling the expected 0.2% and improving from the previous 0.2%. This upward revision from preliminary estimates reflects the positive impact of ECB rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures on Europe's largest economy. The stronger-than-expected growth data reinforces the eurozone's economic recovery trajectory and may influence ECB policy decisions in upcoming meetings. Market participants are pricing in continued economic improvement, with the data suggesting momentum building across the region. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing resistance near 1.0950, with support established at 1.0900. The positive GDP surprise could attract further euro buying, particularly if upcoming eurozone data confirms the growth trend. Traders should monitor ECB communications for any shift in monetary policy stance given the improving economic backdrop.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY faces selling pressure after Japan's core CPI data revealed the fastest inflation growth in two years, strengthening the case for Bank of Japan policy normalization. The accelerating inflation suggests the BOJ may need to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy stance sooner than anticipated, providing fundamental support for the yen. Asian FX markets reacted positively to the data, with yen crosses showing broad weakness as traders position for potential BOJ action. The inflation acceleration marks a significant shift in Japan's economic dynamics, moving closer to the BOJ's sustainable 2% target. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY testing support at key levels, with momentum indicators suggesting further downside potential. Market participants are closely watching for any BOJ policy signals, as sustained inflation above target could trigger the unwinding of years of monetary stimulus. The development poses risks for yen carry trades that have dominated market positioning.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias near 156.80, down 0.2% in early Asian session as Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba held phone talks with President Trump ahead of crucial trade negotiations. Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is scheduled to return to the US around May 30 for continued discussions, with Japan maintaining its stance on requesting elimination of US tariffs. The diplomatic developments have increased safe-haven demand for the yen, as markets price in potential trade friction between the two nations. Technical indicators show USD/JPY testing support at 156.70, with resistance at 157.20. The pair's movement reflects growing uncertainty over US-Japan trade relations, which could impact both currencies' performance. Traders are closely monitoring any signs of escalating trade tensions that could trigger further yen strength, particularly if Trump administration signals a harder stance on tariffs during upcoming negotiations.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
WTI crude oil futures settled 0.60% lower at $61.20 per barrel on Monday. The decline was primarily driven by reports that OPEC+ members are considering a potential output increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. Although this is one of the options being discussed, no final agreement has been reached. Technically, the price remains below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 low at $64.71 and a key swing area between $61.92 and $64.71. This suggests that the bearish sentiment may persist in the near term. Traders should monitor upcoming OPEC+ meetings for further clarity on production policy, as any confirmed output increase could pressure oil prices further. Conversely, if the proposed hike is not approved or is lower than expected, it may provide support to crude oil prices.
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY has risen 0.5% to 143.90, stretching towards the first resistance at 144.097 amid a rebound from recent lows. The rally is primarily driven by rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing 3 basis points to 3.72%. However, a cluster of technical resistance levels, including the 200-bar MA (4-hour chart) at 144.097, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May range at 144.257, and the 100-hour MA at 144.44, could limit further upside momentum. Traders are closely monitoring these key levels for potential reversals or breakouts. A sustained break above 144.44 could open the door for a test of the May high at 145.07, while a rejection at the resistance cluster might lead to a pullback towards the recent swing low at 142.50.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD has retreated to the 1.13 level following a recent breakout, with the pair experiencing a mild correction after its upward move. Despite the short-term pullback, long-term charts indicate that the overall trend remains bullish for the euro against the US dollar. Fundamental factors supporting EUR/USD include the ongoing economic recovery in the Eurozone and the European Central Bank's potential tapering of its monetary stimulus. Technical analysis shows that the pair is trading above key moving averages, suggesting that the uptrend is likely to continue. Traders should monitor important support levels, such as the 1.12 handle and the 50-day moving average, for potential buying opportunities. A sustained break above the recent highs near 1.14 could open the door for further gains in the medium term.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The S&P 500 index slid lower as US Treasury yields spiked following the passage of a $4 trillion debt ceiling deal by the Trump administration. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 1.60%, putting pressure on equities. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also gained ground, rising 0.3% to 93.80, as demand for safe-haven assets increased. In the forex market, the US dollar strengthened against major currencies, with EUR/USD dropping 0.2% to 1.1780 and GBP/USD falling 0.3% to 1.3820. The FTSE 100 index also experienced a modest decline, slipping 0.1% as investors assessed the potential impact of higher borrowing costs on corporate earnings. Traders should closely monitor developments related to the US debt ceiling and their effect on financial markets, as any further yield increases could lead to additional volatility across asset classes.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is set to visit the United States from Friday to Sunday for tariff negotiations with US officials. Japan maintains its stance of demanding the complete removal of US tariffs on Japanese imports, which were imposed under the Trump administration. The tariffs, which affect industrial metals and other goods, have been a point of contention in the trade relationship between the two countries. While no immediate resolution is expected, the talks aim to make progress in addressing Japan's concerns and fostering a more balanced trade partnership. The outcome of these negotiations could have implications for the USD/JPY pair, as any signs of easing trade tensions or concessions from the US side might boost the yen against the dollar.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is likely to stay at elevated levels as the window for potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) narrows. The pair has been trading near multi-year highs, with the US dollar benefiting from a widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan. The BoJ's yield curve control policy, which aims to keep 10-year Japanese government bond yields around 0%, has limited the central bank's ability to combat yen weakness. Additionally, recent data showing a slowdown in Japan's economic recovery, such as weaker-than-expected retail sales and industrial production figures, have further supported the case for a persistently strong USD/JPY. Traders should watch for any signs of verbal intervention by Japanese officials, as well as potential changes in BoJ policy, which could temporarily cap USD/JPY gains. However, the overall trend remains bullish, with the pair targeting a test of the 112.00 level in the near term.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has declined 0.2% to 1.0740 after Eurozone PMI data showed a contraction in business activity in May. The Composite PMI fell to 51.8 from 54.1 in April, missing expectations of 52.5. Services PMI dropped to 52.5 from 55.0, while Manufacturing PMI slid to 44.6 from 45.8, indicating worsening economic conditions. The soft data has dampened optimism about the Eurozone's recovery, weighing on the euro. Meanwhile, the US dollar has found support from higher US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising 2 basis points to 3.70%. Immediate support for EUR/USD is seen at 1.0720 (5-day low), while resistance lies at 1.0790 (20-day MA). A break below support could accelerate losses towards 1.0680, while a recovery above resistance might lead to a retest of the 1.0820 level.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The EUR/USD pair is trading higher, maintaining its bullish momentum as the upward trend gains strength. According to Quek Ser Leang, a strategist at UOB's Global Economics and Markets Research, the pair is likely to continue its ascent in the near term. Although specific price levels and percentage gains were not mentioned, the overall sentiment suggests that the euro could appreciate further against the US dollar. Traders will be monitoring key technical levels and upcoming economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States to gauge the sustainability of the current uptrend. Positive developments in the Eurozone economy or any signs of weakness in the US dollar could provide additional support for the EUR/USD pair.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux