USD/JPY is trading defensively as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced expectations that policy normalization will continue, with markets now pricing a meaningful probability of a hike at the September meeting. Ueda flagged that recent yen volatility and the pass-through of import costs into domestic inflation remain central to the policy calculus, keeping headline CPI above the BOJ's 2% target. The comments follow a run of yen weakness that has repeatedly drawn verbal intervention from Japanese officials, and traders continue to watch the Ministry of Finance for signs of physical FX action should depreciation accelerate. Rate differentials remain the dominant driver, so any narrowing versus US Treasury yields would amplify yen strength. On the charts, USD/JPY faces near-term support around the 148.00 area, with a break exposing the 146.50 region; resistance sits near 151.00 and the recent cycle highs. Traders should expect elevated two-way volatility in JPY crosses including EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY into the BOJ decision, with headline risk from Ueda's press conferences.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD and AUD/USD are the key movers in the Asian session as traders position for a double dose of event risk. The RBNZ policy decision headlines the calendar, with markets leaning toward a rate hike as the central bank responds to firmer domestic inflation and a tighter labour market. A confirmed hike accompanied by a hawkish statement would support the kiwi, while any signal that the tightening cycle is near its end could trigger a 'sell the fact' reaction. Ahead of that, Australia releases Q2 GDP covering April, May and June, a critical read on household demand after several quarters of soft per-capita output. A stronger-than-expected print would firm RBA pricing and lift AUD/USD, while a downside miss would reinforce the case for policy patience. Technically, NZD/USD faces resistance near the 0.6000 handle with support around 0.5900; AUD/USD pivots around 0.6600 with support near 0.6540. AUD/NZD is likely to see the sharpest volatility given the competing catalysts.
NZDUSD
AUDUSD
AUDNZD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Ferrari N.V. confirmed completion of the second tranche of its multi-year share repurchase programme and announced a third tranche, a corporate capital-return event with negligible direct impact on EUR/USD or broader euro pricing. Buyback flows of this scale are dwarfed by daily euro turnover and do not alter the European Central Bank's policy trajectory, which remains the dominant driver for the single currency alongside eurozone inflation and growth data. Traders should note that sustained equity repatriation and corporate hedging flows can, in aggregate, provide marginal euro support, but a single issuer programme is not a tradable signal. EUR/USD direction continues to hinge on the ECB-Fed policy spread, eurozone HICP prints and US labour market releases. Technically, EUR/USD support is seen near 1.1600 with resistance around 1.1750; a sustained break either side requires a macro catalyst rather than corporate news flow. Position accordingly and treat this headline as background context on eurozone corporate health rather than an FX driver.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply as equity futures tumbled, global sovereign yields pushed to multi-year highs and crude oil rallied on escalating tensions involving Iran. The combination is classically dollar-supportive: rising long-end yields widen US rate differentials while a broad risk-off tone drives safe-haven demand into USD and CHF. USD/JPY faces two-way risk, with higher US yields offsetting traditional yen haven flows. Commodity currencies are mixed — CAD draws support from the oil spike, capping USD/CAD upside, while AUD and NZD underperform as global growth concerns and equity weakness weigh. Gold and oil remain the cleanest expressions of the geopolitical premium. Elevated bond yields also raise fiscal sustainability concerns in Europe and Japan, adding pressure on EUR and JPY. Technically, DXY strength targets resistance zones while EUR/USD support near 1.1600 is vulnerable on a sustained risk-off extension; USD/CAD pivots near 1.3700. Traders should size positions cautiously given headline-driven gaps and expect volatility to remain elevated while the Iran situation is unresolved.
USDCAD
EURUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
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EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Sterling faced renewed headwinds after UK July lending data pointed to a cooling housing market, leaving GBP/USD vulnerable on the back of softer domestic credit demand. Mortgage approvals fell to 56,050 in July, well below the 59,500 consensus and down from a revised 58,210 in June, marking a clear undershoot of the prior six-month average of 60,800. Net mortgage borrowing by individuals dropped sharply to £4.3 billion from £7.7 billion in June, the steepest monthly decline in the series recently, reflecting the lagged impact of elevated mortgage rates. Consumer credit provided a partial offset, rising £2.0 billion versus £1.8 billion expected and a revised £1.86 billion prior, suggesting household spending appetite remains intact. The mixed profile complicates the Bank of England's policy calculus, keeping easing expectations alive while inflation persistence limits conviction. For GBP/USD, weak housing credit reinforces a soft fundamental backdrop, with traders watching mid-1.33s support and 1.3450 resistance. Sustained mortgage weakness would strengthen the dovish case and cap sterling rallies.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is trading cautiously ahead of the Eurozone flash HICP release for August, with headline annual inflation expected to accelerate to 3.3% from the prior reading, while core inflation is forecast at 2.5%. The core print remains the dominant variable for traders, as the ECB has repeatedly stressed that underlying price pressures, particularly in services, will determine the pace of any further policy adjustment. A core reading above 2.5% would reinforce expectations that the ECB stays on hold for longer, offering support to the single currency, while a downside surprise would revive easing bets and expose the euro to renewed selling. Country-level prints from Germany, France, Italy and Spain feed into the aggregate, so early releases often set the intraday tone before the bloc-wide figure lands. Traders should expect a volatility spike around the release, with EUR/USD sensitive to any deviation of one tenth or more from consensus. EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY are also likely to see repricing, particularly if the services component surprises on either side of expectations.
EURUSD
EURGBP
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
China's RatingDog General Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 in August from 50.9 in July, comfortably in expansion territory and reinforcing the improvement already signalled by the official NBS survey. The stronger factory data provided a supportive backdrop for the China-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars, with AUD/USD holding firm at the start of the new month as commodity demand expectations improved. Attention simultaneously shifted to renewed currency discussions between Japanese and US officials, a theme that historically injects two-way risk into USD/JPY as markets weigh the prospect of verbal or actual intervention against a still-wide yield differential. Broader risk appetite was constructive, with regional equities firmer and the dollar index consolidating recent ranges. For traders, the combination of resilient Chinese manufacturing and unresolved Japan-US currency dialogue argues for measured AUD upside against the greenback, while USD/JPY faces headline risk in both directions. Sustained Chinese expansion would also underpin AUD/JPY, though yen sensitivity to policy commentary keeps that cross volatile.
AUDUSD
USDJPY
NZDUSD
AUDJPY
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD found firm support after China's private manufacturing PMI beat the roughly 51.0 consensus, extending the sector's longest expansionary run in five years. The result arrived just one day after the official NBS manufacturing survey also improved, delivering rare confirmation from both the state-weighted and export-weighted gauges within the same week. That alignment typically builds trader conviction faster than either survey moving in isolation, since it suggests broad-based demand rather than a narrow, sector-specific rebound. The Australian dollar remains the most liquid proxy for Chinese industrial momentum, given Australia's iron ore and bulk commodity export exposure, so improving factory activity feeds directly into terms-of-trade expectations. The data also reduces the urgency for further RBA easing by supporting external demand. Technically, sustained buying interest keeps AUD/USD biased toward recent range highs, with dip-buying likely on pullbacks toward the prior consolidation base. Traders should watch whether follow-through Chinese activity data, particularly new export orders, validates the improvement, as a single-month beat can fade quickly if global demand softens.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
AUDJPY
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil futures rallied around $2 on the session to trade near $85.41, with the intraday high extending to $86.79, the strongest level since August 21. The advance carried price into the 100-day moving average at $86.73, a level that has defined the broader trend structure. Buyers briefly pushed above the moving average but momentum faded quickly and price rotated back beneath it, leaving a technical rejection rather than a confirmed breakout. That failure keeps sellers in control of the medium-term bias despite the day's gains, and shifts attention back toward the session's lower boundaries as initial support. A decisive daily close above $86.73 would be required to flip the structure bullish and open scope toward the next resistance shelf; until then, rallies remain corrective. For FX traders, the rejection matters for the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, as failed oil breakouts typically limit CAD strength and support USD/CAD on dips. CAD crosses such as CAD/JPY are similarly exposed if crude resumes its decline from the moving average.
USDCAD
CADJPY
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Japan's 2-year government bond yield has climbed to a 31-year high, marking a structural shift in the funding cost of the yen carry trade. For years, near-zero Japanese rates allowed investors to borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets abroad, including US Treasuries, equities and risk assets such as Bitcoin. Rising short-end JGB yields narrow that differential and make the strategy progressively less profitable, raising the risk of unwinding flows that mechanically bid the yen higher. Such episodes have historically produced sharp, disorderly declines in USD/JPY alongside broad de-risking across high-beta assets, with the August 2024 unwind serving as the reference template. The move reflects market expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue normalising policy, a direct contrast with the Federal Reserve's easing bias. Traders should monitor whether further JGB yield gains coincide with declines in USD/JPY and yen crosses such as AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY, which typically bear the brunt of carry unwinds. Elevated volatility risk warrants tighter position sizing in yen-funded trades.
USDJPY
EURJPY
AUDJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar staged a broad recovery in the week ended August 28, reversing prior losses as new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a notably hawkish debut speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Warsh's emphasis on restoring price stability and his reluctance to endorse near-term easing prompted markets to reprice the Fed path, with participants lifting odds of a future rate hike and trimming expectations for 2026 cuts. The shift lifted front-end Treasury yields and tightened financial conditions, driving demand for the greenback across the board. EUR/USD retreated from recent highs, GBP/USD slipped as UK lending data softened, and USD/JPY firmed on the widening yield differential, while commodity currencies including AUD/USD and NZD/USD underperformed on reduced risk appetite. Gold surrendered much of its Treasury-led gains as real yields climbed. Technically, dollar strength remains contingent on rate expectations holding; a sustained hawkish narrative keeps the greenback's near-term bias higher, while any softening in upcoming US inflation or payrolls data would quickly challenge the rebound and revive downside risk.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
US equities opened the final session of the month on the back foot, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both breaking below their 100-hour moving averages, a short-term technical signal that has shifted intraday momentum lower. Despite Monday's pullback, the S&P 500 holds a 2.54% monthly gain while the Nasdaq is up 3.69%, indicating profit-taking into month-end rather than a trend reversal. The selling pressure stems from rising US Treasury yields after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks tightened financial conditions and revived rate-hike pricing. Higher yields support the dollar against low-yielders, keeping USD/JPY bid, while softer risk appetite typically weighs on AUD/USD and NZD/USD as carry positions are trimmed. Traders should treat the 100-hour moving averages as the immediate pivot: reclaiming those levels would neutralise the bearish tilt, while sustained trade below opens the door to deeper corrective moves. Continued equity weakness alongside firmer yields favours defensive dollar and yen exposure through the start of September.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
EURUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
European trading closed with oil holding firm gains after the US and Iran exchanged military strikes, with the IRGC claiming a supertanker caught fire following a naval mine attack in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation revived supply-risk premia, though expectations of a prolonged stalemate rather than full disruption limited the downside for crude and capped further spikes. Higher oil prices offer support to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, favouring USD/CAD downside, while energy-importing currencies such as the yen face terms-of-trade headwinds. Regional European yields pushed higher, with German state CPI prints adding to the rates narrative and lifting EUR/USD's yield backdrop, even as US futures traded lower into the new week. Gold initially rallied on Treasury demand but erased most gains after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments retightened financial conditions, underscoring the dominance of real yields over safe-haven flows. Traders should monitor Hormuz headlines for volatility spikes, with CAD and NOK sensitive to crude, and CHF and USD the primary beneficiaries of any renewed risk-off escalation.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Gold surrendered most of its Treasury-driven advance after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stating he 'would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.' The remark effectively retightened financial conditions, pushing real yields higher and trimming market expectations for near-term rate cuts — a bearish combination for non-yielding bullion and a supportive one for the US dollar. XAU/USD reversed from session highs, with the metal now consolidating below its recent peak. The repricing has knock-on effects across FX: a firmer dollar pressures EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while USD/JPY finds support from the widening yield gap. AUD/USD, historically correlated with gold, remains vulnerable. Technically, gold faces resistance at the prior swing high, with initial support at the 21-day moving average and stronger demand expected near the prior breakout zone; a sustained close below would open a deeper corrective leg. Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation and payrolls data, which will determine whether Warsh's hawkish framing is validated or faded.
XAUUSD
EURUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The Japanese yen weakened beyond the 160.00 threshold against the US dollar on August 30, 2026, pushing USD/JPY into a zone historically associated with official intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan. The decline reflects persistently wide US-Japan interest rate differentials, with the BOJ's normalisation pace still lagging the yield levels available in dollar assets, alongside a deteriorating terms-of-trade picture as crude prices climb. Officials have signalled discomfort with rapid, one-sided moves, and traders are monitoring rhetoric escalation from 'watching closely' to 'ready to take decisive action' as a precursor to actual yen buying. Technically, 160.00 now acts as pivotal support-turned-resistance, with the 161.00–162.00 area the next upside objective; a sharp intervention-driven reversal could target 157.50 and then 155.00. Yen crosses including EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY carry similar risk profiles. Positioning data shows crowded yen shorts, which amplifies the potential for violent squeezes on headline risk, so traders should size accordingly and expect thin liquidity spikes around Tokyo fixings.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
China's official manufacturing PMI for August came in above consensus, offering relief after July's steep decline, though the index remains beneath the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The beat trims some of the downside risk premium attached to Chinese growth-sensitive assets and typically supports commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, while limiting upside in USD/CNH. AUD/USD and NZD/USD tend to track Chinese activity data closely given Australia's iron ore and resource export exposure, and a stabilising manufacturing sector reduces pressure on the yuan fixing. Traders should note the improvement is marginal rather than a turnaround: sub-50 prints signal ongoing contraction in output, new orders and employment, keeping expectations alive for further PBOC easing and fiscal support. For AUD/USD, the reaction is likely to be a modest bid rather than a trend reversal, with the pair still driven primarily by Fed pricing and US yields. Sustained follow-through above 50 in coming months would be needed to build a durable bullish case for antipodean currencies and USD/CNH downside.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
US equity indices closed the week higher, supported by Nvidia's earnings results, fresh policy signalling from the Federal Reserve and the latest GDP release, a combination that kept the dollar broadly supported into month-end rebalancing flows. Firmer growth data and hawkish Fed commentary lifted front-end Treasury yields, a dynamic that historically weighs on EUR/USD and GBP/USD while supporting USD/JPY, given the yen's high sensitivity to US rate differentials. Risk-positive equity performance has partially offset dollar strength for high-beta currencies such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD, leaving those pairs range-bound rather than directionally driven. For traders, the key takeaway is the divergence between resilient risk appetite and a repricing of Fed policy toward a less accommodative path, which favours carry-supported dollar longs against the yen and franc. Attention now turns to upcoming inflation and labour market releases, which will determine whether yield support for the dollar extends. Month-end flows can distort price action, so confirmation on the following week's opening ranges is advisable before committing to directional positions.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The dollar strengthened across the board in North American trade as Federal Reserve officials delivered an unusually hawkish set of remarks. Fed's Warsh described price stability numbers as 'more concerning,' Hammack argued it is time to act with rate hikes and warned that waiting will create pain, while Goolsbee agreed inflation is the Fed's primary issue. The rates market responded aggressively: US 2-year yields surged 12 basis points to 4.34% and 10-year yields rose 5.4 basis points to 4.73%, driving USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD in the dollar's favour. Gold collapsed $145 to $4,455 as higher real yields undermined the non-yielding metal. Supporting data included final University of Michigan sentiment at 51.7 versus 51.0 expected, while Canadian Q2 GDP grew 3.3% annualised, marginally below the 3.4% consensus, capping CAD gains against a firm dollar. Non-farm payroll benchmark revisions trimmed employment by 79,000 jobs, a smaller downgrade than feared. With rate hike risk now being priced, dollar dips are likely to be bought unless upcoming inflation prints soften materially.
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCAD
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY has extended its advance, clearing both the 100-day moving average at 159.994 and the psychological 160.00 barrier, printing a session high at 160.15 with buyers retaining firm control. The breakout was fuelled by hawkish commentary from the Fed chair and a sharp repricing of US rates: the 2-year yield jumped nearly 11 basis points to 4.34%, while the 10-year yield added 5.2 basis points to 4.724%. Widening US-Japan rate differentials remain the dominant driver for the pair, restoring carry appeal for dollar longs against the yen. Technically, the 159.99-160.00 zone now converts from resistance into initial support; holding above it keeps the bullish structure intact and opens scope toward the next round-number objectives above 160.50. A decisive close back beneath the 100-day moving average would neutralise the breakout and shift focus back into the prior range. Traders should remain alert to Japanese verbal intervention risk, which has historically intensified as USD/JPY trades in the 160 area, potentially triggering sharp but short-lived corrective pullbacks.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
