USD/JPY has slipped 0.4% to 149.75 as strengthening Japanese wage data reinforces expectations for a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike in upcoming meetings. Recent labor market reports show Japanese wage growth accelerating beyond forecasts, providing the BOJ with justification to normalize monetary policy after years of ultra-loose conditions. The yen's appreciation comes despite broader dollar strength, highlighting the significance of Japan's improving fundamentals. Market positioning suggests traders are increasingly betting on BOJ action, with futures markets pricing in a 65% probability of a rate hike by March 2025. Technical indicators show USD/JPY breaking below the key 150.00 psychological level, with next support at 149.20 (50-day moving average). Resistance now sits at 150.50. The diverging monetary policy paths between the Federal Reserve's pause and potential BOJ tightening could drive further yen strength, making USD/JPY an attractive short opportunity for trend followers.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Foreign exchange markets are trading in tight ranges as traders position neutrally ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings. EUR/USD hovers near 1.0570, showing minimal directional bias with a 0.1% intraday range. GBP/USD consolidates around 1.2650 following mixed UK economic data, while USD/JPY maintains its position near 150.00 despite Bank of Japan policy speculation. USD/CAD trades sideways at 1.3580 ahead of the Bank of Canada's rate decision, where a 25 basis point cut is anticipated. Market positioning data reveals balanced sentiment across major pairs, with speculative traders reducing both long and short exposure. Implied volatility remains subdued, suggesting markets expect measured responses from central banks rather than policy surprises. Technical patterns indicate most pairs are trading within established ranges, awaiting catalyst events to determine the next directional move in what could be a pivotal week for currency markets.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Weekly technical analysis reveals significant pattern developments in AUD/USD and USD/CAD pairs. AUD/USD has formed a bullish flag pattern near 0.6450, suggesting potential upside momentum toward 0.6520 resistance if the pattern confirms. The Australian dollar finds support from improving risk sentiment and steady commodity prices. USD/CAD shows a descending triangle formation at 1.3600, with support holding at 1.3550 while resistance caps gains at 1.3650. EUR/USD maintains its range between 1.0540-1.0600, while GBP/USD tests resistance at 1.2680. USD/JPY continues consolidating near the 150.00 psychological level, and USD/CHF trades within a narrow 0.8850-0.8900 band. Weekly momentum indicators suggest mixed directional bias across major pairs, with AUD/USD showing the most constructive technical setup. Traders should monitor these key pattern breakouts for potential trend acceleration in the coming sessions.
AUDUSD
USDCAD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD maintains bullish momentum above 0.6600, gaining 0.4% to 0.6615 as positive China trade data and hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia signals support the Australian dollar. China's November trade surplus expanded to $97.4 billion, beating expectations of $89.5 billion, with exports growing 6.7% year-over-year. The strong Chinese data bolsters demand for the commodity-linked Aussie dollar. Additionally, RBA officials have maintained their hawkish stance, suggesting interest rates will remain elevated for longer to combat persistent inflation running at 3.5%. Technical indicators show AUD/USD breaking above the 20-day moving average at 0.6590, opening the path toward 0.6650 resistance. Support has formed at 0.6580, with the pair maintaining its upward trajectory from last week's lows. The combination of China's economic resilience and RBA's policy stance positions AUD/USD for potential further gains this week.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD remains range-bound near 1.0580 as traders navigate a data-light Monday session. The pair shows minimal volatility ahead of today's low-tier German industrial production data and Swiss consumer confidence figures, neither expected to significantly impact central bank policies. USD/CHF holds steady around 0.8850 levels. With no major catalysts in the European session and only the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectations scheduled for the US session, forex markets are likely to see subdued trading volumes. Technical traders note EUR/USD continues to consolidate between 1.0550 support and 1.0600 resistance, while USD/CHF remains capped by the 0.8900 psychological level. The absence of high-impact data suggests pairs will likely trade within established ranges, with traders positioning ahead of more significant releases later in the week. Market participants remain focused on broader central bank divergence themes between the ECB and Fed.
EURUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD traded lower at 1.0515, declining 0.2% (20 pips) as French President Macron's tariff threats against China raised concerns about potential trade tensions impacting European growth. In a Sunday interview with Les Echos, Macron warned Chinese officials that the EU would implement US-style tariffs on Chinese products "in the coming months" if trade surpluses aren't addressed. This escalation in trade rhetoric weighs on the euro as markets anticipate potential retaliation from China that could hurt European exporters, particularly Germany's manufacturing sector. The threat comes amid already fragile EU-China trade relations and adds to existing headwinds facing the eurozone economy. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing support at 1.0500, with resistance at 1.0550. A breakdown below 1.0500 could accelerate selling toward 1.0480, while traders monitor upcoming ECB policy decisions and any concrete EU trade policy announcements.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD has declined sharply this week, falling 1.2% (160 pips) to test 1.4020 support levels, as broad-based dollar weakness combines with Canadian dollar strength. The selloff accelerated after Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly held steady at 6.8% while adding 50,500 jobs in November, beating forecasts of 25,000. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices surged 3.5% to $71.20 per barrel, providing additional tailwind for the commodity-linked CAD. The diverging economic trajectories between the US and Canada have widened, with Canadian GDP growth surprising to the upside at 2.1% annualized. Technical indicators show USD/CAD breaking below its 50-day moving average at 1.4085, with next major support at 1.3980. Traders are positioning defensively ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where any dovish signals could extend the pair's downtrend toward the 1.3950 psychological level.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has declined sharply following stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data, with the pair testing critical support at the convergence of 100 and 200-day moving averages. Canada's employment change surged to 53.6K, significantly exceeding forecasts, while the unemployment rate plummeted to 6.5% from 7.0%, marking the largest drop in recent months. The participation rate decreased to 65.1% from 65.3%, partially explaining the dramatic unemployment rate decline. This robust labor market data has strengthened the Canadian dollar and increased expectations that the Bank of Canada may pause its easing cycle. Technical indicators show the pair approaching a crucial support zone where the 100 and 200-day MAs converge, representing a key inflection point. A decisive break below this level could accelerate CAD gains and push USD/CAD toward the next support at 1.3950, while a bounce could see resistance at 1.4050.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index has shown weakness following the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate decision, with markets pricing in more cautious monetary policy moves for 2026. EUR/USD has gained 0.2% to trade near 1.0580, while USD/JPY retreated 0.4% to 149.85 as dollar strength waned. The Fed's latest communication suggests a slower pace of policy adjustments next year, contrasting with earlier hawkish expectations. Market participants are reassessing dollar positions amid growing uncertainty about the central bank's future trajectory. Technical indicators show the Dollar Index testing support at 106.20, with resistance at 107.00. The shift in Fed sentiment has prompted traders to reduce long dollar positions, particularly against the euro and yen. Near-term dollar direction will depend on upcoming US economic data releases and any further clarity from Fed officials regarding their 2026 outlook.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is experiencing downward pressure as Japan's economy minister signals preference for stable monetary policy ahead of the Bank of Japan's December meeting. The minister emphasized that monetary decisions rest with the BOJ while expressing hope for appropriate policy guidance to achieve the 2% inflation target. His comments suggest government reluctance toward near-term rate hikes, potentially delaying BOJ tightening expectations. The minister stressed the importance of stable movements in stock, FX, and bond markets reflecting fundamentals, pledging to monitor market developments with urgency. This dovish stance contrasts with recent hawkish BOJ signals, creating uncertainty for yen traders. Technical levels show USD/JPY testing support near 149.50, with resistance at 150.80. A clearer BOJ policy direction at the December 19 meeting will be crucial for determining whether the pair can sustain its recent range or break decisively in either direction.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD remained range-bound near 1.2750 on Thursday, hitting five-week highs before retreating as markets priced in rate cuts from both the Bank of England and Federal Reserve. The pair gained 0.1% intraday but struggled to maintain momentum above key resistance. UK economic optimism has faded amid persistent inflation concerns, with markets now pricing a 65% probability of a BoE rate cut in Q1 2025. Similarly, Fed rate cut expectations for early 2025 have increased to 70%, limiting dollar strength. Technical analysis shows immediate resistance at 1.2780 (5-week high) with support at 1.2720 (50-day moving average). The pair remains trapped in a 1.2700-1.2800 range as traders await clearer monetary policy signals. Friday's UK GDP data and next week's US CPI release will be crucial for determining the pair's next directional move.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY carry trade dynamics are evolving as the yield differential between US and Japanese bonds shows signs of compression, according to recent market analysis. The S&P 500 remains range-bound while investors reassess the attractiveness of yen-funded carry trades amid shifting monetary policy expectations. The narrowing US-Japan yield spread reflects growing speculation about potential BOJ policy normalization and questions about the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. This convergence is prompting traders to unwind traditional yen carry positions, creating selling pressure on USD/JPY. The US 10-year yield's recent volatility adds complexity to carry trade calculations, while the Dollar Index futures indicate mixed sentiment. Technical indicators suggest USD/JPY may test the 148.50 support level if carry trade unwinding accelerates. Traders should monitor upcoming BOJ communications and US economic data for clearer directional signals on the sustainability of current yield differentials.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY remains range-bound near 150.20 as mixed US equity performance and cautious investor sentiment weigh on risk appetite. Major US indices showed divergent patterns yesterday, with tech shares posting marginal gains while broader market momentum stalled. The ongoing debate about potential AI bubble risks has kept traders defensive, limiting appetite for higher-yielding assets. European equities managed to grind higher, but conviction remains low across global markets. The pair's movement reflects broader market uncertainty, with traders awaiting clearer directional cues. Technical indicators suggest consolidation within the 149.80-150.50 range, with the 200-day moving average at 149.95 providing near-term support. A decisive break above 150.50 could target 151.00, while failure to hold above 149.80 might accelerate declines toward 149.20. The calm market conditions suggest potential for increased volatility as year-end positioning intensifies.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY faces structural headwinds as the US-Japan interest rate differential continues to compress, threatening the popular yen carry trade. Rising long-end US Treasury yields have failed to offset concerns about narrowing policy rate gaps between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Current forward rate markets suggest this convergence will accelerate through 2025, potentially unwinding significant yen short positions estimated at $15 billion. The pair currently trades near 150.00, down from recent highs above 152.00. Volatility remains subdued but positioning data shows increasing nervousness among carry traders. Technical analysis reveals strong resistance at 151.50 (November high) while support emerges at 148.50 (100-day moving average). The shifting rate dynamics could trigger substantial yen strength if US economic data disappoints or BOJ signals earlier policy normalization. Traders should monitor upcoming FOMC and BOJ meetings for policy divergence clarity.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has declined sharply below the 155.00 psychological level, dropping 0.8% (125 pips) in recent trading as the Japanese yen stages a recovery after two months of sustained weakness. The pair peaked near 156.50 earlier this week, marking potential 2025 highs before reversing course. The yen's rebound comes amid growing speculation of Bank of Japan intervention concerns and profit-taking activities by leveraged traders. Technical indicators suggest the pair has formed a double top pattern around the 156.50 region, with immediate support now at 154.50 (50-day moving average). A sustained break below 154.00 could accelerate selling pressure toward 152.50. Market participants are closely monitoring Japanese officials' verbal interventions and any signs of actual currency market operations. The reversal also coincides with a broader pause in dollar strength as traders reassess Federal Reserve rate expectations for 2025.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD gained 0.2% to 1.0545 as European equity markets closed higher across the board, with Spain's Ibex and Germany's DAX leading gains. The euro's strength reflects growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting, despite stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Market pricing shows an 85% probability of a December cut, as traders focus on the diverging monetary policy paths between the ECB and Fed. The DAX's technical breakout above 19,500 provides additional support for euro sentiment, while GBP/USD consolidated near 1.2720. Immediate resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.0570 (50-day MA), with support at 1.0520. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB officials' speeches for any hawkish signals that could accelerate euro gains, particularly as the dollar faces pressure from persistent rate cut expectations.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is experiencing increased volatility, trading 0.2% lower at 1.0520 as Italy's controversial proposal to reclassify central bank gold reserves for fiscal purposes raises concerns about eurozone stability. The Italian government's consideration to potentially monetize Bank of Italy's gold holdings, valued at approximately €150 billion, has sparked debates about central bank independence and fiscal discipline within the eurozone. Market participants worry this could set a precedent for other heavily indebted eurozone nations, potentially undermining ECB monetary policy effectiveness. The euro has found temporary support at 1.0500, but resistance remains firm at 1.0550 (daily pivot). Growing political tensions in Rome, combined with Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 140%, are weighing on euro sentiment. Traders are monitoring ECB officials' responses and any signs of contagion to other peripheral eurozone bond markets.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USDCAD surged approximately 0.25% (35 pips) to 1.4025 following stronger-than-expected US jobless claims data, with claims dropping to 191K versus the 220K forecast. This significant miss reinforced USD strength as it suggests a resilient US labor market, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. However, the pair's advance was capped at the 1.4030 resistance zone, which coincides with the 50-day moving average and previous November highs. Technical indicators show the pair remains in a consolidation phase between 1.3980 support and 1.4030 resistance. A decisive break above 1.4030 could open the path toward 1.4080, while failure to sustain current levels may see a retest of 1.3980. Traders should monitor upcoming Canadian GDP data and OPEC+ decisions, as oil price movements significantly impact CAD valuation.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar index fell 0.15% to 106.20 as markets maintained aggressive bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut, despite better-than-expected employment data. The resilient jobs report, showing unemployment at 4.1% and wage growth at 3.9% year-over-year, failed to alter market expectations for monetary easing. Fed funds futures continue to price in a 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting, reflecting traders' conviction that the Fed will prioritize growth concerns over inflation risks. This divergence between strong data and dovish market positioning has created unusual dollar weakness across major pairs. Technical indicators suggest the dollar index could test support at 106.00, with resistance at 106.50. The disconnect between economic fundamentals and rate expectations presents both opportunities and risks for forex traders, particularly in USD crosses ahead of next week's Fed decision.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Germany's DAX index surged 0.8% to close at 19,650, breaking key technical resistance and supporting euro strength across forex markets. The index's momentum above the 19,500 level signals continued risk-on sentiment in European assets, providing fundamental support for EUR/USD's advance toward 1.0550. Meanwhile, GBP/USD consolidated near 1.2720, facing resistance at the 200-day moving average despite broad dollar weakness. The pound's underperformance reflects ongoing concerns about UK economic growth and Bank of England policy uncertainty. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD needs to clear 1.2750 to confirm bullish momentum, while support sits at 1.2680. The contrasting performance between EUR and GBP highlights diverging European economic outlooks. Traders should watch for a potential EUR/GBP long opportunity if the cross breaks above 0.8330, targeting 0.8360 as European equities continue to outperform.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
