EUR/USD has declined 0.4% to 1.0820 after traders significantly reduced rate cut expectations for the European Central Bank's September meeting. Following yesterday's ECB policy decision, markets now price only a 15% probability of a September cut, down from 65% previously, with the first full cut now expected in October. The hawkish shift reflects ECB officials' concerns about persistent services inflation and wage growth pressures. The euro's decline accelerated during the European session as positioning adjusted to the new rate outlook. Technical indicators show EUR/USD breaking below the 1.0850 support level, with next support at 1.0800. Resistance now sits at 1.0880. The extended pause in ECB easing contrasts with expectations for potential Fed cuts later this year, though this differential may provide limited support for the euro if European economic data continues to disappoint.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index fell 0.3% to 104.20 during Asian trading after President Trump confirmed he will not fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, easing concerns about political interference in monetary policy. The announcement provided stability to currency markets, with USD/JPY dropping 0.25% to 156.60 and EUR/USD gaining 0.2% to 1.0865. Asian currencies broadly strengthened against the dollar, with AUD/USD rising 0.35% to 0.6580 and NZD/USD up 0.3% to 0.5920. The confirmation removes a significant uncertainty factor that had been weighing on risk sentiment. Markets are now refocusing on economic fundamentals and the Fed's data-dependent approach to policy. Technical analysis shows the dollar index testing support at 104.00, with a break below potentially accelerating the downtrend toward 103.50. The reduced political risk premium supports a more stable trading environment for major currency pairs.
USDJPY
EURUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has extended its bullish momentum, breaking above the 147.40 level in Asian trading, marking a continuation of the pair's recent upward trajectory. The Japanese yen remains under pressure amid diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, with the BOJ maintaining its ultra-loose stance despite global tightening trends. The move represents a significant psychological breakthrough, as 147.00 had previously acted as strong resistance. Market participants are closely monitoring any potential intervention signals from Japanese authorities, though no immediate action appears forthcoming. Technical indicators suggest further upside potential, with the next major resistance level at 148.00, followed by the October 2022 high near 148.85. Support has now formed at 147.00, with the 146.50 area providing additional backing. Traders should remain vigilant for any shifts in BOJ rhetoric or unexpected yen-positive developments that could trigger a sharp reversal.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CNY remains steady near 7.2850 following US Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments that the US is in a 'pretty good place' with China on trade, despite the significant bilateral trade deficit. In a Fox Business interview, Bessent indicated plans to discuss China's purchases of sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran, suggesting potential leverage in future trade negotiations. The remarks come amid ongoing concerns about the US-China trade imbalance, which reached $280 billion in 2023. Market participants view Bessent's diplomatic tone as potentially reducing trade war risks, keeping the dollar-yuan pair range-bound. Technical indicators show USD/CNY trading within a narrow 7.2800-7.2900 range, with traders awaiting more concrete policy developments. The measured approach from the Treasury could signal a shift from aggressive tariff threats to negotiated solutions, potentially limiting yuan volatility in the near term.
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD declined to a session low of 1.3503, testing the critical confluence of the rising 100-hour moving average and the lower boundary of a key swing area between 1.3505-1.3514. The pair has fallen approximately 50 pips from intraday highs as dollar strength pressured sterling lower. This technical support zone provided immediate buying interest, with traders viewing the level as a clear risk-defining area for potential dip-buying opportunities. The 100-hour MA has acted as dynamic support throughout recent sessions, making this test particularly significant for near-term direction. If buyers maintain defense above 1.3503, a corrective rebound toward 1.3550 resistance remains viable. However, a decisive break below this support confluence would expose the 1.3480 level and signal further downside momentum. Traders are closely monitoring whether this technical floor holds, as it could determine whether the recent uptrend remains intact.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The dollar index declined 0.03% to a 2.5-week low as disappointing US economic data weighed on the greenback across major pairs. US Manufacturing PMI data came in below expectations, signaling continued contraction in the industrial sector and raising concerns about economic momentum. New home sales also missed forecasts, adding to worries about the housing market's resilience amid elevated interest rates. The dollar's weakness was compounded by improved prospects for an EU-US trade agreement, which boosted risk sentiment and supported the euro. EUR/USD gained approximately 0.2% to 1.0920, while GBP/USD advanced to 1.2950. Technical analysis shows the dollar index breaking below the 104.50 support level, with next support at 104.00. Traders are now reassessing Fed rate cut expectations, with markets pricing in increased likelihood of policy easing by Q3 2025 if economic weakness persists.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Trader AI, a fintech platform, has announced the launch of its AI-powered cryptocurrency trading robot, marking a significant development in automated trading technology. The platform emphasizes enhanced security protocols and user approval mechanisms, positioning itself as a next-generation solution for cryptocurrency traders. While primarily focused on crypto markets, the launch reflects broader trends in algorithmic trading that are increasingly influencing traditional forex markets. The integration of AI-driven trading systems continues to reshape market dynamics, with potential spillover effects on currency pairs as institutional traders adopt similar technologies. Forex traders should monitor how AI-powered platforms impact market volatility and liquidity, particularly during high-frequency trading periods. The development underscores the growing convergence between cryptocurrency and traditional forex markets, as technological innovations blur the boundaries between asset classes.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD surged 0.5% to 1.0920 following the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged at the July monetary policy meeting. The pair gained approximately 55 pips as markets interpreted the ECB's stance as potentially more hawkish than anticipated, with officials likely maintaining their vigilance on persistent inflation pressures. The decision aligned with market expectations, but the accompanying statement suggested the central bank remains committed to its current restrictive policy stance. Technical indicators show EUR/USD breaking above the 1.0900 psychological resistance level, with momentum indicators turning bullish. The next resistance lies at 1.0950, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Support has formed at 1.0880, representing the pre-ECB announcement level. Traders are now focusing on ECB President Lagarde's press conference for additional guidance on the future policy trajectory and any hints about September's meeting.
EURUSD
EURGBP
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged during the July 2025 monetary policy meeting, in line with market consensus. The deposit facility rate remains at its current level as policymakers assess the impact of previous tightening measures on the eurozone economy. The decision reflects the ECB's cautious approach amid mixed economic signals, with inflation showing signs of moderation while remaining above the 2% target. Market reaction was initially muted, with EUR/USD holding near 1.0900 levels immediately following the announcement. However, currency pairs involving the euro showed increased volatility as traders positioned for President Lagarde's press conference. The unchanged stance suggests the ECB is entering a prolonged pause phase, potentially keeping rates elevated through the summer months. This development supports euro strength against currencies where central banks are considering rate cuts, particularly affecting EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF cross pairs.
EURUSD
EURGBP
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index maintained stability near 104.50 during European morning trading, while gold prices retreated 0.8% to $2,380 per ounce ahead of the ECB's monetary policy announcement. Major currency pairs showed limited movement, with EUR/USD consolidating around 1.0895 and GBP/USD holding near 1.2850. The dollar's resilience reflects ongoing support from relatively hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, despite recent mixed economic data. Gold's pullback from recent highs suggests profit-taking as traders reduce risk exposure before the ECB decision. Asian session data showed mixed results, with Japanese yen weakening slightly against the dollar to 152.30. Market participants remain cautious, with implied volatility measures elevated across major pairs. The ECB's rate decision and subsequent communication will likely determine near-term direction for EUR crosses, while broader dollar trends depend on upcoming US economic releases.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD reached fresh 2025 highs at 0.6620, gaining 0.7% (46 pips) as bullish momentum accelerates ahead of next week's Australian CPI release. The pair has broken above a descending channel that confined price action since January, signaling a potential trend reversal. Technical indicators show strong buying pressure, with the RSI approaching overbought territory at 68 and the MACD histogram expanding positively. The breakout targets immediate resistance at 0.6650, representing the 200-week moving average, while support has formed at 0.6580. Market positioning data reveals net long positions increasing by 15% over the past week, reflecting growing optimism about the Australian dollar. The upcoming inflation data will be crucial, with expectations for a 3.2% year-over-year reading that could prompt the RBA to maintain its hawkish stance. A decisive close above 0.6650 would confirm the bullish breakout and open the path toward 0.6700.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD remains largely unchanged around 1.0950 as intensive EU-US negotiations on tariffs continue with just one week before the August 1 deadline. European officials expressed optimism about reaching a negotiated outcome, stating they have no intention of implementing additional countermeasures before the deadline while remaining prepared for all scenarios. The cautious optimism has supported risk sentiment, preventing significant dollar strength despite uncertainty. Markets are closely monitoring the progress of these talks, as any breakdown could trigger volatility in the euro. Technical indicators show EUR/USD consolidating within a tight 1.0920-1.0980 range, with traders awaiting concrete developments. A successful resolution could lift the pair toward 1.1000 resistance, while failure to reach an agreement might pressure EUR/USD back to 1.0900 support. The prolonged negotiations risk causing market fatigue if talks extend without clear outcomes.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Major currency pairs showed minimal movement during today's Asian and early European sessions, with traders focused on AUD/USD's attempt to sustain yesterday's upside breakout. The Australian dollar is testing key resistance levels after breaking above its recent trading range, though follow-through buying remains limited. EUR/USD hovers near 1.0950, GBP/USD sits around 1.2850, while USD/JPY consolidates near 153.50. The subdued price action reflects a wait-and-see approach as markets digest recent developments and await fresh catalysts. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD facing immediate resistance at 0.6580, with a successful hold above this level potentially opening the path to 0.6620. Support rests at 0.6540, yesterday's breakout point. The lack of significant economic data releases today has kept volatility low across major pairs, with traders monitoring risk sentiment and commodity prices for directional cues.
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Stock futures climbed during Asian trading, supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar as AI sector optimism combines with positive EU-US trade negotiations. AUD/USD gained 0.2% to 0.6575, benefiting from improved risk appetite and steady commodity prices. EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0955 amid constructive tariff talks, while GBP/USD advanced to 1.2860. USD/JPY retreated slightly to 153.40 as the safe-haven yen found mild support. The technology sector's renewed strength following positive AI-related earnings has bolstered equity futures, creating a favorable environment for risk assets. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, supporting commodity currencies. Traders are positioning for potential breakthrough in trade negotiations while monitoring tech sector developments. Near-term resistance for AUD/USD sits at 0.6590, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential if risk-on sentiment persists through the session.
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD trades sideways near 1.0950 as markets await clearer guidance from the European Central Bank, with officials notably avoiding direct commentary on currency movements. The lack of ECB communication on exchange rates has left traders without clear directional cues, resulting in range-bound trading between 1.0920-1.0980. USD Index futures consolidate around 104.50, reflecting broader dollar stability. USD/JPY maintains its position near 153.50 amid balanced risk sentiment. Market participants are closely monitoring ECB officials' speeches for any hints about monetary policy direction or concerns about euro strength. The central bank's silence on FX developments suggests comfort with current levels, though this could change if EUR/USD moves significantly. Technical indicators point to continued consolidation unless the pair breaks above 1.0980 resistance or below 1.0920 support, with momentum indicators showing neutral readings.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD advanced 0.25% to 1.2865 during European morning trade, supported by progress in EU-US tariff negotiations and better-than-expected UK economic data. Sterling found additional support from positive risk sentiment as trade tensions showed signs of easing, with EU officials expressing optimism about reaching an agreement before the August 1 deadline. UK retail sales data surprised to the upside, showing a 0.5% monthly increase versus 0.3% expected, indicating consumer resilience despite elevated interest rates. The pound's strength comes despite ongoing Bank of England uncertainty regarding the pace of future rate cuts. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD breaking above the 1.2850 resistance level, with next target at 1.2900. Immediate support has formed at 1.2835, the previous resistance turned support. Continued progress in trade talks could propel the pair toward 1.2920, while any setback might trigger a retreat to 1.2800.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar's mid-week rally proved short-lived, with USD/CAD retreating from session highs as broad dollar strength evaporated. The greenback initially gained ground across major pairs but failed to sustain momentum, suggesting the recent pump was a false breakout. Market sentiment shifted as traders reassessed the dollar's near-term prospects amid mixed signals from equity markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 showed resilience despite initial weakness, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained steady performance. This equity stability reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, allowing commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar to recover ground. Technical indicators suggest the dollar's failure to break above key resistance levels triggered profit-taking, with USD/CAD now testing support near recent lows. The false breakout pattern indicates potential further dollar weakness ahead, particularly if risk appetite improves and commodity prices remain supported.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar has come under broad selling pressure as market volatility diminishes, with GBP/USD advancing 0.4% to test 1.2950 resistance and USD/CAD retreating 0.3% to 1.3680. The dollar's weakness reflects reduced safe-haven demand as risk sentiment improves across global markets. Sterling's strength is bolstered by expectations that the Bank of England will maintain its hawkish stance amid persistent UK inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar benefits from stable oil prices near $82 per barrel and solid domestic economic fundamentals. Technical indicators suggest GBP/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.2970, with support at 1.2900, while USD/CAD finds support at 1.3650 with resistance at 1.3720. Traders are positioning for continued dollar weakness unless upcoming US economic data surprises to the upside, particularly this week's GDP and PCE inflation figures.
GBPUSD
USDCAD
EURUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/CNY remains stable near 7.8850 following Chinese President Xi Jinping's diplomatic overtures to the European Union regarding trade relations. Xi emphasized that China poses no fundamental threat to EU interests and called for open trade and investment markets between the regions. The Chinese leader specifically requested the EU to provide a favorable business environment for Chinese enterprises while respecting China's core interests. Markets are closely monitoring EU-China trade dynamics amid ongoing tensions over electric vehicle tariffs and technology transfers. Xi's willingness to cooperate on AI development and climate change initiatives could ease some friction points. Technical indicators show EUR/CNY consolidating in a tight range between 7.8750-7.8950, with traders awaiting concrete policy developments. Any breakthrough in trade negotiations could see the pair test support at 7.8650, while escalating tensions might push it toward resistance at 7.9100.
EURCNY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The Japanese Yen and Euro have posted significant gains against the US Dollar as positive developments in global trade relations boost risk sentiment. USD/JPY declined 0.6% to 149.20, marking its lowest level in two weeks, while EUR/USD climbed 0.5% to 1.0920. The yen's appreciation reflects unwinding of carry trades and speculation that the Bank of Japan may adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than expected. Progress in international trade negotiations has reduced geopolitical tensions, diminishing demand for the dollar as a safe haven. The Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 103.50, breaking below key technical support. EUR/USD now targets resistance at 1.0950, with support at 1.0890, while USD/JPY faces strong support at 149.00. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming trade talks and central bank communications for further directional cues.
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
