The US dollar held steady as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined an optimistic economic outlook in a Fox Business Network interview, asserting that 3% GDP growth is "not unreasonable" for the United States. Bessent covered a wide range of topics including Iran, China, artificial intelligence, and broader US economic policy. Notably, he highlighted a substantial increase in purchases of Iranian oil arrangements involving China, a development that carries implications for both energy markets and geopolitical risk sentiment. The growth target of 3% is ambitious relative to recent trends and suggests the administration remains committed to pro-growth fiscal policy, which could be supportive for the dollar if accompanied by credible policy measures. For forex traders, Bessent's comments reinforce a narrative of US economic exceptionalism that has underpinned dollar strength. However, the lack of specific policy details limits the immediate market impact. Traders should monitor upcoming GDP data and fiscal policy announcements to assess whether the 3% growth target gains credibility.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar traded mixed to little changed against the three major currency pairs — EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD — during Monday's session, with price action largely driven by technical levels rather than fresh fundamental catalysts. Technical analysis highlights specific support and resistance zones that are defining the trading bias and risk parameters for each pair. For EUR/USD, the session saw limited directional conviction, while USD/JPY and GBP/USD similarly remained range-bound within their respective technical frameworks. The consolidation pattern across multiple major pairs suggests the market is awaiting a catalyst to establish a clearer directional move. Traders are advised to identify the key technical levels — including bias, risk, and target zones — for each pair to manage positions effectively during this low-conviction environment. A breakout from current ranges in any of the three majors could set the tone for broader dollar direction in the sessions ahead.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The British pound found support during the European session after UK employment data surprised to the upside, with the unemployment rate holding steady in May even as payrolls declined again in June. The better-than-expected labor market figures came alongside new PM Burnham's announcement of a VAT cut on energy bills, his first major policy move which already faces scrutiny. On the European front, the German ZEW survey showed an improvement in recovery sentiment for July, while Eurozone banks continued to tighten lending standards amid ongoing geopolitical concerns. Middle East tensions remained a dominant theme, with Iran stating that any decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz depends on security considerations — a factor keeping oil prices elevated and risk sentiment fragile. FX option expiries at the 10am New York cut also influenced intraday flows. For traders, GBP pairs may benefit from the jobs beat in the near term, but persistent geopolitical risk and questions around UK fiscal policy present headwinds that could cap gains.
GBPUSD
EURUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey delivered a notable upside surprise in July, with the expectations index jumping to 26.3 from a prior reading of 10.5, well above the consensus forecast of 17.5. Current conditions came in at -77.6, marginally better than the -77.8 expected and a meaningful improvement from June's -81.0. Despite the improving outlook, current conditions remain deeply negative, reflecting the persistent drag from escalating Middle East tensions on German industrial sentiment and energy costs. The disconnect between improving forward expectations and weak present conditions suggests markets are pricing in a potential stabilization later in the year. EUR/USD likely found some support from the better-than-expected data, as the outlook improvement signals cautious optimism among financial market participants. However, further escalation in geopolitical tensions could quickly erode this sentiment gain. For EUR/USD traders, the data provides a modest fundamental tailwind for the euro, though the pair remains sensitive to broader dollar dynamics and risk sentiment. Key levels to watch include the pair's response to upcoming ECB commentary and further Middle East developments.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD faces downside pressure as the ECB's Bank Lending Survey reveals euro area banks continued tightening credit standards in Q2 2026, signaling deteriorating economic conditions across the bloc. Banks reported moderate tightening for corporate loans, housing loans, and consumer credit, driven by weaker risk tolerance and elevated perceived credit risks. Geopolitical tensions and energy-related risks were cited as key factors weighing on credit conditions. The tightening of lending standards typically constrains economic growth by reducing credit availability to businesses and households, which could weigh on the euro over the medium term. For the ECB, this data may reinforce expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy stance, as restrictive credit conditions effectively do some of the central bank's tightening work. Traders should monitor upcoming Eurozone PMI data and ECB commentary for further directional cues. Near-term, the combination of tighter credit and geopolitical headwinds creates a bearish backdrop for EUR crosses, with particular attention on whether lending conditions deteriorate further in Q3.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD faces uncertainty as newly installed UK Prime Minister Burnham encounters immediate political turbulence over his first major policy announcement — a VAT cut on energy bills aimed at reducing household costs. The policy carries an estimated fiscal cost of approximately £850 million, raising questions about the government's fiscal credibility at a critical juncture. The speed at which the announcement has drawn criticism in Westminster suggests potential instability in the new government's ability to execute its economic agenda. For sterling traders, political risk premiums may begin to build if the new administration struggles to maintain coherent fiscal messaging. The Bank of England will be watching closely, as energy bill relief could marginally reduce headline inflation but the fiscal cost adds to borrowing concerns. Near-term GBP direction will depend on whether Burnham can stabilize the narrative around this policy. Traders should watch gilt yields for signs of fiscal confidence erosion, which would translate into direct GBP pressure across major and cross pairs.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices are surging as the Strait of Hormuz has reverted to a de facto closure following renewed US-Iran military strikes, severely disrupting global energy supply routes. Iran stated that any decision to reopen the critical waterway depends on security considerations, while the US has reimposed its naval blockade, effectively resetting the prior ceasefire agreement. Ship-tracking data confirms traffic through the strait has collapsed to minimal levels. The strait handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, making this closure a significant supply shock. USD/CAD is directly impacted, with the Canadian dollar likely to benefit from elevated crude prices given Canada's status as a major oil exporter. Conversely, JPY and EUR may face headwinds as energy-importing economies absorb higher costs. Safe-haven flows into the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen could intensify if the conflict escalates further. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments and crude oil price action, as any de-escalation signals would sharply reverse current positioning across commodity-linked and safe-haven currencies.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Major forex pairs are trading in narrow ranges as markets digest a relatively soft UK employment report and position ahead of the German ZEW economic sentiment index. The UK data showed the ILO unemployment rate holding at 4.9%, slightly better than the 5.0% expected, while employment change surprised to the upside at 147k versus 80k forecast. However, average weekly earnings cooled to 4.3% from 4.4%, a modestly dovish signal for the Bank of England. The muted market reaction reflects limited implications for near-term BoE rate expectations. Attention now shifts to the German ZEW survey, expected at 15.3 versus 10.5 prior, which could provide directional impetus for EUR/USD if it surprises significantly. In the US session, traders will monitor Fed commentary and broader risk sentiment. EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain range-bound as neither dataset alone is likely to trigger a breakout. Positioning ahead of mid-week events suggests consolidation will persist until a clearer catalyst emerges from central bank signals or geopolitical developments.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD showed limited reaction following the release of UK labour market data for May, which painted a mixed picture for the Bank of England's policy outlook. The ILO unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, beating the 5.0% consensus, while employment change surged to 147k versus the 80k expected, suggesting underlying resilience in the jobs market. However, average weekly earnings growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 4.4%, slightly below the 4.5% forecast, providing the BoE with welcome evidence that wage-driven inflationary pressures are easing. Excluding bonuses, earnings growth held flat at 3.4%. June payrolls declined by 4k, a modest deterioration from the prior revised reading of +3k. The ONS cautioned that data quality issues persist with the Labour Force Survey due to the delayed transition, warranting caution in interpretation. For traders, the softer wage component marginally increases the probability of BoE rate action but is insufficient alone to shift expectations materially. Near-term GBP direction will likely be driven by upcoming inflation data and broader risk sentiment.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar remains supported amid escalating US-Iran military tensions, with rising oil prices and Treasury yields providing dual tailwinds for the greenback heading into the new trading week. Brent crude continues to trade near one-month highs as the conflict enters its 10th consecutive night of exchanges, with Goldman Sachs warning that prices could surge above $120/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz faces sustained disruption. President Trump has warned that Iran will pay 'many times over' for the killing of American soldiers, keeping risk sentiment fragile across global markets. Safe-haven flows are bolstering the dollar and Japanese yen, while commodity-linked currencies face mixed dynamics—CAD potentially benefiting from oil strength while risk-sensitive AUD and NZD face headwinds. Elevated oil prices also feed into inflation expectations, pushing Treasury yields higher and reinforcing hawkish Fed pricing. Traders should monitor developments closely, as any escalation toward full-scale war or a ceasefire decision from Trump could trigger sharp volatility across major pairs, particularly USD/JPY and oil-sensitive crosses.
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Asia-Pacific currencies are under pressure as geopolitical risk dominates early-week trading, with Trump reportedly nearing a pivotal decision between a new Iran ceasefire and full-scale war. The RBNZ's own inflation model for Q2 2026 held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from Q1, suggesting the central bank may maintain its current policy stance and limiting near-term NZD upside. USD/CNY was fixed by the PBOC at 6.7917, with reports of China's national team intervening to stabilize markets amid the geopolitical uncertainty. South Korea's President Lee flagged concerns over won weakness and rising risks from leveraged financial products, adding to regional currency pressures. Goldman Sachs' warning that Brent could breach $120/bbl if Hormuz shipping lanes remain disrupted is intensifying risk-off positioning across the region. Israel's intelligence suggesting Iran has relocated nuclear centrifuges into hardened mountain facilities adds another layer of escalation risk. Traders should watch for Trump's imminent decision as the primary volatility catalyst, with safe-haven USD and JPY likely to benefit from further escalation while risk-sensitive Asia-Pacific currencies could face significant selling pressure.
NZDUSD
USDCNY
USDKRW
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD has edged higher as the Canadian dollar softened modestly following reports that Canadian Prime Minister Carney expressed readiness to intensify trade negotiations with Washington after the imposition of new US tariffs. The loonie's weakness extends a broader period of depreciation tied to the ongoing tariff standoff between Canada and the United States. Carney's measured diplomatic tone, emphasizing continued willingness to negotiate rather than pursue immediate retaliatory measures, has provided a degree of stability and may limit further CAD downside in the near term. However, markets remain on alert for any indication that Ottawa could match the new US duties, as it has done with previous American trade measures — a move that could reignite volatility in the pair. The trade tensions inject uncertainty into the Canadian economic outlook, potentially influencing Bank of Canada policy considerations. Traders should monitor upcoming trade policy announcements closely, as escalation or de-escalation will likely dictate USD/CAD direction. Key resistance and support levels will be tested depending on the outcome of intensified negotiations.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The U.S. dollar is seeing renewed safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate. A senior U.S. official confirmed that the Trump administration is prioritizing holding Iran accountable for alleged violations of a memorandum of understanding and recent American casualties, signaling that any diplomatic ceasefire remains a distant prospect. The official emphasized that both military and economic pressure campaigns will persist indefinitely until the President determines otherwise. This hardline stance has injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, pushing traders toward traditional safe-haven assets including the dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc. Crude oil prices have also firmed on supply disruption concerns, which could weigh on commodity-linked currencies such as AUD/USD and USD/CAD. Pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF may see competing safe-haven flows, potentially resulting in range-bound trading. Traders should monitor developments closely, as any military escalation in the Middle East could trigger sharp volatility across forex markets. Key resistance for the DXY sits near recent highs, with risk sentiment likely to remain fragile in the near term.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The British pound faces uncertainty following the appointment of John Healey as the UK's new Chancellor of the Exchequer, a move that introduces fresh fiscal policy questions for GBP traders. Healey, one of Labour's most experienced politicians, brings direct Treasury experience from his tenure as Economic Secretary and Financial Secretary under Blair and Brown. He previously served as Defence Secretary from July 2024 until his resignation on June 11, 2026. His appointment signals potential shifts in UK fiscal policy direction, which could have meaningful implications for GBP pairs. Traders will be closely monitoring his initial policy statements for indications on taxation, government spending, and borrowing targets, all of which directly impact gilt yields and sterling valuation. The transition at the Treasury comes at a sensitive time as GBP/USD is already under technical selling pressure. Near-term, the appointment adds a layer of political uncertainty that may weigh on sterling until markets gain clarity on Healey's economic agenda and its alignment with Bank of England monetary policy objectives.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is extending losses after breaking below critical moving averages, shifting the technical picture decisively in favor of sellers. The pair first breached its 100-hour moving average at 1.34585, a move that emboldened bears and put buyers on the defensive. The subsequent break below the 200-hour moving average confirmed a bearish technical shift, with the pair now targeting a cluster of lower support levels. What had been a relatively balanced session earlier deteriorated as sellers gained momentum through successive technical breakdowns. The sequence of lower support violations suggests increasing downside conviction among market participants. Traders should watch for potential support at the next cluster of technical targets below the 200-hour MA, while any recovery attempt will face resistance at the broken moving averages, which now act as overhead barriers. The breakdown aligns with broader USD strength driven by rising US Treasury yields across the curve. Sellers remain in control unless the pair can reclaim the 200-hour moving average on a sustained basis.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is strengthening broadly as Treasury yields push to new session highs across the entire yield curve, providing fundamental support for the greenback. The 2-year yield has risen 4.5 basis points to 4.216%, the 5-year is up 4.3 bps to 4.316%, the 10-year has climbed 4.1 bps to 4.581%, and the 30-year has advanced 3.2 bps to 5.096%. The 2-year yield bounced from Friday's low of 4.11%, and has now reclaimed technically significant levels, trading back above both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages near 4.187%. The broad-based rise in yields suggests markets are repricing rate expectations, potentially pushing back the timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yield curve dynamics, with the front end leading the move higher, indicate strengthening near-term rate expectations. Dollar bulls are finding reinforcement from these yield movements, putting pressure on major counterparts including the euro, pound, and yen. Traders should monitor whether yields sustain above these moving average levels for continued USD momentum.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both advancing at the start of the North American session, driven by a broad risk-on environment and constructive technical setups. Equity futures are signaling a strong open, with S&P 500 futures up approximately 21 points and Nasdaq futures gaining around 252 points, reinforcing appetite for higher-yielding commodity currencies. The improving risk sentiment appears linked to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly around U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments, which have lifted market confidence. Both antipodean pairs are benefiting from technical breakouts that have attracted momentum buyers. For AUD/USD, traders are watching for sustained moves above recent resistance levels, while NZD/USD is similarly testing key upside targets. The bullish alignment of both risk appetite and technicals suggests further upside potential in the near term, though traders should remain cautious of any reversal in equity sentiment or unexpected USD strength. Positioning favors long exposure in both pairs while risk-on conditions persist.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Canada's June CPI data came in softer than expected across nearly all measures, reinforcing expectations for further Bank of Canada easing. Headline CPI fell to 2.8% year-over-year versus the 2.9% estimate, down sharply from 3.2% in the prior month. The monthly CPI reading plunged to -0.4%, well below the -0.2% forecast and a significant reversal from the prior month's 1.0% gain. BoC Core CPI eased to 2.1% year-over-year from 2.2%, while the core monthly reading dropped to just 0.1% from 0.6%. The CPI median came in at 1.9%, below the 2.1% estimate, marking a notable move below the Bank of Canada's 2% target midpoint. These disinflationary readings strengthen the case for additional rate cuts, placing downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD traders should monitor BoC commentary for confirmation of dovish policy expectations. The data suggests the Bank of Canada's tightening cycle has effectively cooled price pressures, potentially accelerating the timeline for rate reductions.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is trading mixed and largely unchanged against the three major currency pairs to start the North American session. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD are showing little directional conviction, with price action confined to tight ranges as traders assess competing macro signals. In contrast, the commodity-linked AUD and NZD are outperforming on risk-on flows, creating a divergence within the broader dollar complex. Technical analysis across the major pairs reveals a neutral near-term bias, with defined support and resistance levels keeping price contained. For EUR/USD, traders are watching key levels for a breakout in either direction, while USD/JPY and GBP/USD similarly await catalysts for more decisive moves. The mixed dollar performance reflects a market in wait-and-see mode, with participants balancing easing geopolitical tensions against upcoming economic data releases. Traders are advised to monitor technical breakout levels closely, as the current consolidation phase could resolve with a sharp directional move once a catalyst emerges.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Global markets rallied and crude oil prices declined as both the United States and Iran signaled openness to diplomatic negotiations, easing fears of prolonged geopolitical conflict. The prospect of de-escalation has significantly improved risk sentiment across asset classes, with equity markets bouncing and safe-haven demand receding. Crude oil's retreat directly impacts commodity-linked currencies and inflation expectations, potentially influencing central bank policy trajectories. The improved geopolitical outlook is benefiting risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD while reducing safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF. For forex traders, the shift in risk appetite is creating clear divergences across the currency spectrum, favoring carry trades and higher-yielding currencies. However, traders should remain vigilant as geopolitical developments can reverse quickly, and any breakdown in negotiations could trigger a sharp risk-off reversal. Near-term, the diplomatic progress supports a constructive market environment, though positioning should account for headline risk from further U.S.-Iran developments.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
