EUR/USD fell 0.35% to 1.0825 in European morning trade as market participants digested the complexities of the recently announced US-EU trade agreement. The initial positive reaction reversed as concerns emerged about implementation challenges and domestic opposition within EU member states. The dollar index gained 0.25%, benefiting from safe-haven flows amid trade uncertainty. Technical analysis shows the pair breaking below the 1.0850 support level, with momentum indicators turning bearish. The 50-day moving average at 1.0810 provides immediate support, while resistance has formed at 1.0870. Traders are closely monitoring comments from EU officials regarding the deal's sustainability. Market positioning suggests further euro weakness if the trade agreement faces significant hurdles, with the next major support level at 1.0800 psychological barrier.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Currency markets experienced heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions and commodity price fluctuations dominated trading. The dollar index rose 0.2% to 104.50, supported by risk-off sentiment amid ongoing global trade negotiations. EUR/USD traded 0.25% lower at 1.0835, while GBP/USD held steady near 1.2650. Commodity currencies showed mixed performance, with AUD/USD declining 0.3% to 0.6480 as iron ore prices weakened, while USD/CAD gained 0.2% to 1.3520 despite firm oil prices. Gold's 0.5% rise to $2,045 provided support for CHF pairs. Market participants are positioning for potential shifts in monetary policy as central banks navigate inflation concerns and growth risks. Technical indicators suggest consolidation across major pairs, with traders awaiting clearer directional catalysts from upcoming economic data releases.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index (DXY) has strengthened to 103.50, showing bullish technical patterns across major forex pairs ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. EUR/USD remains under pressure at 1.0775, while GBP/USD struggles below 1.2600 resistance. USD/JPY has broken above 150.00, reaching three-month highs, as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose policy stance. AUD/USD faces headwinds at 0.6450, weighed down by concerns over Chinese economic growth. Technical indicators favor continued dollar strength, with the DXY above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. However, markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a dovish hold from the Fed, which could trigger a dollar reversal. Key levels to watch include EUR/USD support at 1.0750, GBP/USD resistance at 1.2650, and USD/JPY resistance at 150.80. Traders should prepare for potential volatility around Wednesday's FOMC statement and Chair Powell's press conference.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is experiencing increased volatility, trading in a 148.50-149.80 range as the yen faces competing macro forces. The pair gained 0.15% to 149.20 amid diverging monetary policy expectations between the Fed and BoJ. Technical analysis reveals key resistance at 150.00 psychological level, while support holds at 148.00. The yen's safe-haven appeal conflicts with Japan's ultra-loose monetary stance, creating trading opportunities. Upcoming tech earnings from Apple and Amazon could impact risk sentiment and influence the pair's direction. USD/CHF also shows similar patterns, trading 0.1% higher at 0.8920. Options market pricing suggests elevated implied volatility, with traders positioning for potential breakouts. Near-term catalysts include US GDP data and BoJ policy guidance, which could trigger moves beyond the current range.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD opened with a small gap higher during Monday's Asian trading session, climbing 0.15% (16 pips) to 1.0865 following news of a breakthrough in EU-US trade negotiations. The currency pair benefited from improved risk sentiment after weekend reports confirmed progress on reducing tariffs on European exports, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors. The euro's gains were limited by thin liquidity typical of Asian hours, with major European and US markets closed. Technical indicators show the pair testing resistance at 1.0875, the previous week's high, while support remains firm at 1.0845. The modest gap suggests traders are cautiously optimistic but awaiting confirmation from European trading. With no major economic releases scheduled for Monday, the focus remains on trade headlines and whether the euro can sustain its gains when London markets open. A decisive break above 1.0875 could target the psychological 1.0900 level.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CNY is trading near 7.2850, showing signs of potential yuan strength as China's National Energy Administration announced plans to establish a unified national power market by year-end. This major infrastructure reform signals Beijing's commitment to economic modernization and energy security, potentially boosting investor confidence in Chinese assets. The initiative comes as authorities prepare for peak summer power demand, demonstrating proactive economic management. Market participants are closely watching how these reforms might enhance China's economic efficiency and attract foreign investment flows. Technical indicators suggest USD/CNY faces resistance at 7.3000, while support lies at 7.2700. A successful implementation of the power market reforms could strengthen the yuan further, particularly if it improves China's energy cost competitiveness and industrial productivity. Traders should monitor related policy announcements and their impact on China's economic outlook.
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD has strengthened significantly following the announcement of a comprehensive US-EU trade framework agreement, establishing a blanket 15% tariff rate on most goods traded between the regions. This deal effectively prevents the threatened 30% tariffs that had been looming over transatlantic trade relations. Key provisions include zero tariffs on aircraft parts, semiconductor equipment, select chemicals, and agricultural products, with negotiations ongoing to expand the zero-tariff list. The agreement includes EU commitments to increase energy purchases from the US, potentially boosting dollar revenues but simultaneously strengthening European economic stability. Markets are interpreting this development as euro-positive, removing significant trade uncertainty that had weighed on European growth prospects. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD could test resistance at 1.1000 in the near term, with support established at current levels. Traders should monitor implementation details and any additional sector-specific agreements that could further impact currency valuations.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD has gained momentum across major pairs as US Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed $700 billion in tariffs will take effect August 1, with no extensions beyond the deadline. EUR/USD declined 0.2% to 1.0820 while USD/CNY rose 0.4% as markets price in trade war escalation. The announcement contradicts earlier reports suggesting a 3-month extension of the tariff pause with China. Lutnick also warned the EU must open markets to US exports or face 30% reciprocal tariffs, adding pressure on EUR/USD. Safe-haven flows into USD accelerated as traders position for potential global trade disruptions. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing support at 1.0800, with resistance at 1.0850. A break below 1.0800 could accelerate losses toward 1.0750. The tariff implementation timeline suggests continued USD strength as August approaches, with emerging market currencies particularly vulnerable to trade-related volatility.
EURUSD
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD has gained momentum as diverging monetary policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank reshape currency dynamics. The dollar faces pressure from expectations of potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, while the ECB maintains a more hawkish stance amid persistent Eurozone inflation concerns. Renewed trade tensions between the US and both China and the EU are weighing on risk sentiment, with potential tariff implementations creating uncertainty for global growth prospects. Recent US economic data showed resilience in consumer spending and employment figures, though manufacturing indicators remain mixed. Technical levels show EUR/USD testing resistance near 1.0950, with support established around 1.0880. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming Fed minutes and ECB policy statements for further directional cues. The combination of policy divergence and trade uncertainties suggests continued volatility in the pair, with upside potential if European data continues to outperform expectations.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
WTI crude oil is trading down $0.61 at $65.42 following the Baker Hughes report showing oil rig count decreased by 7 to 415, while gas rigs increased by 5 to 122. The total rig count fell by 2 to 542. During the trading week, crude tested its 100-day moving average at $64.91, reaching a weekly low of $64.76 on Wednesday but failing to sustain momentum below this key technical level. For the week, oil is down $0.63 or 0.96% at current levels. The decline in oil rig count suggests reduced drilling activity, which could support prices in the medium term. However, the inability to break below the 100-day MA indicates solid support at these levels. Oil prices directly impact commodity currencies like CAD, NOK, and RUB, with lower oil prices typically weakening these currencies against majors.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is trading lower following President Trump's announcement of a meeting with UK PM Starmer tonight, with potential approval of a trade deal on the agenda. The pound's immediate reaction suggests market uncertainty about the implications of renewed US-UK trade negotiations. While a potential trade agreement could provide long-term support for sterling, traders appear cautious about near-term volatility surrounding the high-level discussions. The announcement comes amid broader Brexit-related concerns and ongoing UK economic challenges. Technical indicators show GBP/USD facing resistance at recent highs, with support levels being tested on this news. Market participants will closely monitor any concrete developments from tonight's meeting, as a formal trade deal announcement could significantly impact sterling's trajectory against the dollar and other major currencies.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
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EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Federal Reserve officials are expected to maintain current interest rates at the upcoming meeting, though market participants increasingly anticipate rate cuts in subsequent meetings. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and Dollar Index futures are all positioned for potential policy shifts. Current market pricing suggests the Fed will hold steady to assess incoming economic data, particularly inflation metrics and labor market conditions. However, dovish signals from recent Fed communications indicate a growing openness to monetary easing if economic conditions warrant. The dollar has shown mixed performance against major pairs, with USD/JPY particularly sensitive to rate differential expectations between the Fed and Bank of Japan. Technical analysis shows the Dollar Index near key resistance levels, suggesting limited upside potential if rate cut expectations solidify. Traders should monitor upcoming economic releases for clues about the Fed's timeline.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY extended losses following lower-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, which reduced expectations for Bank of Japan policy tightening. Tokyo CPI came in below forecasts, suggesting nationwide Japanese inflation may also undershoot predictions. This development weakens the case for BOJ rate hikes, narrowing the interest rate differential with the US. The pair has broken below key support levels as traders reassess the yen's yield disadvantage. Technical indicators show increasing bearish momentum, with the 50-day moving average now acting as resistance. The softer inflation reading adds to concerns about Japan's economic recovery and may prompt the BOJ to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy longer than anticipated. Near-term support for USD/JPY lies at recent lows, while resistance has formed at previous support levels. Traders should watch for upcoming BOJ commentary and US economic data for further directional cues.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has climbed 0.5% to test its 200-hour moving average as ongoing political uncertainty in Japan continues to pressure the yen. The pair's upward momentum reflects growing concerns about Japan's political stability, which is undermining confidence in the currency despite the Bank of Japan's recent policy shifts. Technical indicators show the pair breaking above key resistance levels, with the 200-hour moving average now acting as a critical test for further gains. Market participants are closely monitoring developments in Japanese politics, as any resolution could trigger sharp reversals in yen positioning. The dollar's relative strength is also supported by expectations of sustained higher US interest rates compared to Japan. Traders should watch for a confirmed break above the 200-hour MA, which could open the path toward recent highs, while failure to hold above this level might signal consolidation or a pullback toward immediate support zones.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is experiencing upward pressure as renewed trade deal optimism boosts risk appetite and supports the euro against the dollar. The improved sentiment stems from positive developments in international trade negotiations, reducing concerns about global economic headwinds that had previously weighed on the eurozone economy. The euro's strength is also evident in cross pairs, with EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF showing corresponding gains as traders position for potential economic benefits from enhanced trade flows. Technical analysis suggests the pair is approaching key resistance levels that could determine the next directional move. The US Dollar Index has shown signs of weakness as safe-haven demand diminishes amid the improving trade outlook. For traders, this shift in sentiment presents opportunities in euro-positive strategies, though caution is warranted as trade negotiations can quickly reverse course. Near-term targets include testing recent highs if the optimistic momentum continues.
EURUSD
EURGBP
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD is testing critical medium-term resistance levels as bulls attempt to break through established ceiling zones that have capped gains in recent trading sessions. The pair's upward momentum reflects ongoing dollar strength against the Canadian currency, though technical barriers are proving challenging to overcome. Key resistance at current levels represents a significant test for bullish continuation, with multiple rejections at this zone suggesting strong selling interest. The Canadian dollar's performance remains tied to oil price movements and domestic economic data, both of which are influencing trader positioning. Technical indicators show the pair in overbought territory, potentially limiting immediate upside without a catalyst. A decisive break above the medium-term ceiling could trigger acceleration toward higher targets, while failure might result in a pullback to support levels. Traders should monitor upcoming economic releases from both countries and oil market dynamics for directional cues.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY and USD/CHF are displaying bullish reversal patterns supported by favorable yield differentials, suggesting potential for continued upside momentum. Both pairs have formed technical reversal structures that, combined with rising US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year note, are attracting buyer interest. The yield advantage continues to favor the dollar as US rates remain elevated compared to Japanese and Swiss counterparts, creating carry trade opportunities. Technical analysis reveals completed reversal formations in both pairs, with USD/JPY breaking above key resistance and USD/CHF showing similar strength patterns. The US Dollar Index's performance corroborates this dollar strength theme across safe-haven currencies. Market participants are positioning for further gains as long as yield differentials remain supportive and technical patterns hold. Key levels to watch include recent highs for both pairs, with breaks above potentially accelerating the upward moves amid sustained yield tailwinds.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has moved back into its established trading range following the announcement of a new US-Japan trade agreement, raising questions about the sustainability of this price action. The trade deal news initially sparked volatility in the pair, but prices have since stabilized within familiar technical boundaries that have contained movement in recent weeks. The agreement's details suggest balanced benefits for both economies, limiting any significant directional bias for the currency pair. Technical analysis shows the pair settling between key support and resistance levels that have defined the recent consolidation phase. The US Dollar Index's reaction has been muted, indicating the trade deal's impact may be more symbolic than immediately market-moving. Traders are now watching whether the pair can maintain its position within the range or if subsequent developments will provide the catalyst for a breakout. Critical levels include range support and resistance, with any breach potentially signaling the next trending move.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has gained 0.15% to trade at 156.85 following the release of Japan's revised leading indicator index for May, which improved to 104.8 from 104.2 previously. The coincident index remained steady at 116.0, maintaining its assessment as 'halting to fall,' suggesting stabilization in Japan's economic conditions. The modest improvement in forward-looking indicators has reduced immediate pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement additional stimulus measures. Market participants are closely monitoring the yen's weakness, as USD/JPY approaches the psychologically important 157.00 level. Technical resistance sits at 157.20, while support has formed at 156.50. The data suggests Japan's economy may be finding a floor, though the yen remains under pressure from the significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan, with traders awaiting further economic releases for directional clarity.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
