Currency markets traded cautiously ahead of a dense US event calendar headlined by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's debut Jackson Hole address, the annual Non-Farm Payrolls benchmark revisions and persistently sticky inflation data. The combination places the dollar at the centre of near-term price action across EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, with positioning skewed toward reduced expectations of policy easing. Warsh's tone is the key variable: an emphasis on restoring price stability would reinforce the recent rise in short-dated Treasury yields and extend dollar strength, particularly against the low-yielding yen and Swiss franc. Downward benchmark revisions to payrolls would complicate that narrative by pointing to a softer labour market than previously reported, potentially capping dollar upside. Sticky inflation readings, meanwhile, argue against any near-term cut and keep real yields elevated, a headwind for gold and high-beta currencies such as AUD/USD. Traders should expect elevated intraday volatility around the speech and data releases, with liquidity thinning into month-end. Range breaks driven by headlines may require confirmation before establishing directional exposure.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar has pushed broadly higher after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a longer-than-anticipated Jackson Hole address running 3,566 words, with the tone read as more hawkish than markets had positioned for. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD all came under pressure, while USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD extended gains as front-end US yields firmed and rate-cut expectations were trimmed. The speech's emphasis on policy restraint has forced a repricing of the near-term Fed path, reinforcing the dollar's yield advantage into month-end. Technically, dollar pairs are testing key pivot levels: EUR/USD is pressing session lows with sellers defending former swing support, while USD/JPY has cleared prior resistance to trade at fresh highs for the move. Equity indices reacted in kind, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite trading defensively as higher discount-rate assumptions weighed on valuations. Traders should watch whether dollar strength holds above intraday breakout levels; a sustained close higher would validate a continuation of the hawkish repricing, while failure at resistance risks a quick unwind given stretched month-end positioning.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
European trading delivered a more pensive tone with USD/JPY extending gains as traders positioned ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, while gold stayed locked in a tight range. Data flow offered little direction: France's final Q2 GDP was revised down to 0.0% q/q from the 0.2% preliminary reading, French August preliminary CPI matched expectations at 2.4% y/y, and Spanish August preliminary CPI came in slightly hot at 4.3% y/y versus 4.2% expected. German unemployment rose by less than forecast in August, offering modest relief to the euro. Interest rate expectations have shifted through the week, though desks flagged that Jackson Hole may deliver no fresh guidance. Month-end fixing flows were seen as mildly supportive of the dollar, adding a technical tailwind to USD pairs. EUR/USD remains rangebound with the soft French GDP capping upside, while USD/JPY buyers continue to lean on the yield differential. Traders should expect subdued liquidity and range-bound conditions to persist until the Fed messaging is digested, with breakout risk skewed toward the dollar.
USDJPY
EURUSD
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical and energy developments are reshaping currency risk premiums, with European natural gas prices hitting record highs and Persian Gulf states fast-tracking billions of dollars in port, pipeline and rail investment to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Record gas pricing represents a direct terms-of-trade shock for the eurozone, historically a persistent drag on EUR/USD as import costs widen the region's energy deficit and squeeze industrial margins in Germany and Italy. It simultaneously complicates the ECB's inflation outlook, keeping headline pressures elevated even as growth momentum softens. The Gulf infrastructure pivot signals a durable structural response to chokepoint risk, which over time could dampen the oil-price spikes that typically support commodity currencies such as CAD and NOK while lifting safe-haven demand for USD, CHF and JPY. Traders should monitor EUR/USD for downside continuation should gas prices keep grinding higher, with EUR crosses including EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY vulnerable to risk-off flows. USD/CAD direction remains tethered to crude, where any Hormuz-related supply premium would favour the Canadian dollar.
EURUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
EURCHF
EURJPY
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
China's National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating approvals for infrastructure and private investment projects, a development that supports AUD/USD and the broader China-proxy complex while capping USD/CNH upside. The push targets faster conversion of announced policy support into actual project starts, with explicit emphasis on computing power, power grid upgrades and telecom integration, confirming sustained state backing for AI and digital infrastructure buildout. Alongside steady service trade momentum in digital and high-value categories, Beijing appears to be leaning on both domestic investment and external demand to underpin second-half growth. For FX traders, front-loaded construction and grid spending typically feeds iron ore, copper and coal demand, a channel that historically lifts AUD/USD and NZD/USD. AUD/USD resistance sits near the 0.6600 handle with support around 0.6480; USD/CNH remains capped below 7.2000. The absence of headline stimulus figures limits the immediate impact, but a follow-through in fixed-asset investment prints would strengthen the case for commodity-currency outperformance versus the US dollar.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY trades with a downside bias into the Tokyo CPI release, the marquee Asian data point of the session and a key input for Bank of Japan September rate hike expectations. July's Tokyo core CPI accelerated to 1.90% year-on-year from 1.60% in June, a six-month high that beat consensus and reinforced the hawkish tilt in BOJ communications. Deputy Governor Himino has since signalled scope for further hikes and flagged growing upside inflation risks, while declining to comment directly on market pricing for the next move. A repeat upside surprise in the Tokyo print would harden September tightening odds and pressure USD/JPY lower, with EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY also vulnerable to yen strength. A softer read would ease the urgency and allow carry-driven yen selling to resume. Traders should watch the 146.50-147.00 zone as near-term USD/JPY support, with resistance capping rallies around 149.50-150.00. Expect elevated intraday volatility around the release given thin Asian liquidity.
USDJPY
EURJPY
AUDJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD found modest stability after Canada withdrew its threatened retaliatory tariffs on seafood, a concession that would have hit Maine exporters hard and signals genuine progress in bilateral trade negotiations. The de-escalation is the first tangible positive for the Canadian dollar in a session otherwise dominated by political noise, including a US executive order renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America, effective immediately, alongside remarks about potentially renaming the Atlantic or Pacific oceans. The headlines carry no direct macroeconomic content but sustain the political risk premium embedded in CAD pricing. ING has separately argued the Canadian dollar has further to fall on tariff uncertainty, keeping the balance of risks tilted toward USD/CAD upside despite the seafood climbdown. Technically, USD/CAD support sits near 1.3750 with resistance at 1.3900 and the 1.4000 psychological barrier above. Traders should treat headline-driven spikes as noise until a formal trade framework emerges, while remaining alert to sharp CAD repricing on any breakdown in negotiations.
USDCAD
CADJPY
EURCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) is back in focus as a pure-play vehicle for AUD/USD exposure, offering direct tracking of the Australian dollar against the US dollar at a 0.40% annual expense ratio without requiring a margin FX account. The product's appeal is rising alongside a shift in Australian rate expectations, with recent data showing a surge in household spending that strengthens the case for further Reserve Bank of Australia tightening. A hawkish RBA repricing is a direct tailwind for AUD/USD, narrowing the rate differential against the Federal Reserve and supporting carry demand for the Aussie. Offsetting factors include Australia's China exposure, where softer industrial profit growth tempers the commodity demand outlook. FXA's returns closely mirror spot AUD/USD less the expense ratio and short-term interest accrual, so holders should benchmark performance against the 0.6480 support and 0.6600 resistance levels currently framing the pair. Longer holding periods amplify the drag from fees relative to direct spot positioning.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Asian FX marked time ahead of Fed nominee Warsh's remarks, with policy divergence driving the session's clearest moves. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino called for timely rate hikes to curb inflation and flagged growing upside price risks, keeping USD/JPY offered and September tightening odds elevated. The Bank of Korea delivered a second consecutive hike, lifting its benchmark to 3.00% and providing support for the won against the dollar. Australian household spending surged, building the case for an RBA hike and underpinning AUD/USD, though China's industrial profit growth slumped to a seven-month low of 11.2%, capping the commodity-currency bid. ING flagged further downside for the Canadian dollar on tariff chaos, leaving USD/CAD biased higher. Oil markets absorbed reports of a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz dated August 25, adding a geopolitical risk premium that supports CAD and NOK but pressures energy-importing currencies. USD/JPY support sits near 146.50, AUD/USD resistance near 0.6600, and traders should expect volatility once Warsh speaks.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDKRW
USDCNH
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Chinese industrial profit growth decelerated sharply to an 11.2% annual pace, a seven-month low and well below the 18.7% clip recorded in the first half of the year. The clear deceleration across both the July print and the seven-month cumulative figure raises questions over whether the AI-driven turnaround in Chinese industrial profitability is fading rather than simply normalising off a strong base. The data is a negative signal for the China-linked currency complex, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD most directly exposed given Australia's iron ore and bulk commodity leverage to Chinese industrial demand. Traders positioned for continued strength in China-exposed cyclicals and commodity demand may now reassess, potentially unwinding long antipodean exposure. USD/CNH could see mild upside pressure if the market interprets the slowdown as raising the odds of additional PBoC or fiscal support measures. For AUD/USD, softer commodity demand undermines the terms-of-trade support that has cushioned recent dips, leaving rallies vulnerable to selling unless follow-up Chinese activity data stabilises. Watch upcoming Chinese PMIs for confirmation of the trend.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
AUDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CHF has staged a steady intraday recovery, bouncing roughly 45 pips from the session low at 0.8007 to trade into the 0.8050 area. The rebound originated from a well-defined support cluster flagged in the prior session: the swing area extending down to 0.8009, the rising 100-hour moving average, and the 50% retracement of the recent leg near 0.8000. Buyers leaned against that confluence, with the low holding just above the 100-hour MA, confirming dip-buying interest and keeping the short-term bias tilted higher. Price has now advanced into the next resistance cluster near 0.8050, defined by the 200-hour moving average and a broken retracement target that previously capped the market. This zone is the immediate test for control: a sustained break and hourly close above it would open scope for further upside extension, while failure and rotation back lower would return focus to the 0.8009/0.8000 support shelf. Traders should treat 0.8050 as the risk-defining pivot, with momentum favoring buyers only while the 100-hour MA holds as support.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The Japanese yen is in focus after Wells Fargo Chief Asia-Pacific Strategist Chidu Narayanan said on August 26 that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as its September meeting. A hike would extend the BoJ's gradual policy normalization and narrow the still-wide US-Japan rate differential that has underpinned USD/JPY strength and carry-trade positioning. With the Federal Reserve seen at or near the end of its tightening cycle, a September BoJ move would shift the yield gap in the yen's favor, creating downside pressure on USD/JPY and on yen crosses such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Traders should monitor Tokyo CPI, wage growth data and BoJ official commentary for confirmation, as pricing for a September move remains incomplete and positioning is still net-short yen. A hawkish confirmation could trigger an accelerated unwind of short-yen trades and a sharp yen rally, while a BoJ hold would likely see USD/JPY stabilize as carry demand reasserts itself. Elevated two-way volatility around the September decision is likely.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The Swiss franc holds a firm footing after UBS investor sentiment for August printed at +12.1, up from +10.0 in July, marking a second straight month in positive territory following the sharp rebound from June's negative reading. The improvement signals that domestic investors have grown more constructive on Switzerland's economic outlook despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict and elevated crude prices, which typically weigh on the energy-importing Swiss economy. Importantly, the survey is unlikely to shift the Swiss National Bank's stance: markets continue to price the SNB on hold at current ultra-low settings at least until the second half of 2027, leaving CHF driven primarily by risk sentiment and safe-haven demand rather than rate expectations. For traders, this keeps USD/CHF and EUR/CHF sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with any de-escalation in the Middle East likely to trim franc haven bids. Sentiment surveys of this type rarely move spot materially, so the franc's near-term direction should remain tied to global risk appetite and dollar flows rather than Swiss domestic data.
USDCHF
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of Wednesday's July PCE price index release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and the key input for the next policy decision. A softer core PCE reading would reinforce expectations for continued Fed easing, undermining the dollar and opening room for the euro to extend higher, while an upside surprise would revive the case for a patient Fed and prompt a corrective pullback in the pair. Positioning has been supportive for EUR/USD, with the single currency benefiting from a firmer eurozone rate outlook, but the market has largely priced a benign inflation path, leaving asymmetric risk around a hot print. Technically, the pair remains in an established uptrend, with buyers defending trendline and moving-average support on dips and resistance sitting at the recent range highs. Traders should expect an initial volatility spike on the headline, then watch whether spot closes above prior resistance to confirm continuation. Failure to hold support would signal a deeper consolidation phase before the trend resumes.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The Australian dollar caught a bid after July monthly CPI came in hotter than forecast at 3.5% year-on-year, above the 3.2% consensus though down from June's 3.8%. The monthly pace jumped 1.0% versus 0.8% expected and -0.1% prior, while the RBA's preferred trimmed mean core measure printed 3.6% y/y against 3.5% expected and unchanged from the previous month. On a monthly basis, trimmed mean accelerated to 0.5% from 0.3%, a clear upside surprise that keeps core inflation above the top of the RBA's 2-3% target band. The data materially reduces the scope for near-term RBA easing and should keep the front end of the Australian curve supported, a positive input for AUD/USD and a headwind for AUD/JPY shorts. Traders will watch whether AUD/USD can convert the initial data-driven pop into a sustained break of recent range resistance; failure to hold gains would suggest the market still views the monthly series as noisy. Broader direction remains contingent on Wednesday's US PCE inflation report and global risk sentiment.
AUDUSD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Risk appetite improved into the North American close as unconfirmed Russian media reports pointed to a potential Iran-US deal, easing the geopolitical premium that had underpinned the dollar and crude prices in recent sessions. Simultaneously, ECB sources indicated policymakers are prepared to raise rates at the September meeting, a hawkish signal that widens the euro's rate advantage and offers direct support to EUR/USD. US Treasury yields were also in focus as traders reassessed the Fed path ahead of Wednesday's July PCE inflation release. The combination of a firmer ECB tightening narrative and reduced Middle East risk premium favours pro-cyclical currencies and undercuts safe-haven demand for the dollar, franc and yen, while lower oil would trim support for CAD and NOK. Traders should treat the Iran headlines with caution given the single-source nature of the reports; a denial would quickly reverse the move and lift crude again. EUR/USD upside hinges on ECB confirmation, with technical focus on a break of recent range highs to extend the trend.
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Societe Generale argues the US dollar is trading weaker than fundamentals justify, with Treasury and fiscal policy the dominant drag on the DXY index rather than rate differentials. The bank expects EUR/USD to hold above the 1.12 area on pullbacks and eventually extend toward the 1.20 objective, framing dips as buying opportunities within a structural dollar downtrend. The view rests on persistent US fiscal expansion, heavy issuance needs and a policy preference tolerant of a softer currency, factors that discourage foreign reserve and portfolio allocation into dollar assets even when US growth data outperforms. For traders, the call implies selling dollar rallies against the euro and other majors, with 1.12 acting as key structural support and the psychological 1.15 handle a likely staging area en route to 1.20. Near-term risk to the thesis comes from Wednesday's July PCE inflation print, where a hot core reading could trigger a hawkish Fed repricing and a corrective dollar bounce. A decisive close below 1.12 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Broader US stock indices traded higher but remain confined within key moving average levels, keeping the short-term risk backdrop neutral and limiting directional impulse for risk-sensitive FX pairs such as AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY. Nvidia shares rebounded after seven consecutive sessions of declines, with buyers defending the 100-day moving average in the prior session and pushing price back to the upside. Despite that constructive bounce, the intraday technical structure stays balanced, with Nvidia trading between its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, a range that must break decisively before a clearer trend emerges. The rebound arrives ahead of Nvidia's earnings release after the closing bell, an event with outsized influence on broad equity risk appetite given the stock's index weighting. A strong result and upside equity follow-through would typically support high-beta currencies and pressure traditional havens including the Swiss franc and yen, while a disappointment risks a risk-off rotation that favors USD and JPY. FX traders should expect subdued positioning into the print and elevated volatility immediately after.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Risk sentiment improved through the European session as the S&P 500 rallied on hopes of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough ahead of Jackson Hole, lifting high-beta currencies and easing haven demand for the dollar, yen and Swiss franc. European data was mixed but skewed constructive for the euro: Germany's August Ifo business climate index printed at 88.8 versus 87.2 expected, while German Q2 final GDP was revised up to +0.3% q/q from the +0.2% preliminary reading. France's August consumer confidence disappointed at 86 against 87 expected. Crypto markets added to the improved tone, with ETF inflows, Ethereum demand and US regulatory progress lifting sentiment. Geopolitical de-escalation headlines also weighed on oil-linked risk premia, a factor relevant for CAD and NOK crosses. With sizeable FX option expiries for the 10am New York cut capping intraday ranges, traders are positioning cautiously into Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve commentary on the rate path remains the dominant near-term catalyst for EUR/USD and broad dollar direction.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical risk premium eased after reports from Al Arabiya that Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, is carrying a proposal to Iranian leadership aimed at reducing US-Iran tensions, reportedly including terms to halt the blockade and lift sanctions under a memorandum of understanding. The headline supported broad risk appetite, trimming demand for traditional safe havens and pressuring the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, which typically strengthen during Middle East escalation. Lower geopolitical risk also weighs on crude oil prices by reducing supply-disruption premia, a dynamic that historically pressures commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while supporting oil-importing economies including the eurozone and Japan. Traders should treat the report as preliminary, since no official confirmation from Washington or Tehran has been provided, leaving headline risk two-way. Confirmation of tangible de-escalation would likely extend gains in high-beta currencies including AUD and NZD and keep USD/CHF and USD/JPY supported, while a breakdown in talks would rapidly restore haven bids and lift oil-sensitive crosses.
USDCHF
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
