USD/CAD has surged to multi-year highs near 1.4350, gaining 2.8% over the past week as Trump's tariff threats and diverging monetary policies weigh heavily on the Canadian dollar. The threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian exports has intensified selling pressure, while the Bank of Canada's dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause. Canada's economic vulnerability is evident with GDP growth slowing to 1.2% and inflation falling below the 2% target. Market participants are pricing in a 70% probability of a BoC rate cut at the next meeting, which could push USD/CAD toward the 1.4500 psychological level. Technical indicators show the pair breaking above the 1.4300 resistance with strong momentum. The combination of trade tensions, monetary policy divergence, and weak Canadian fundamentals suggests continued CAD weakness ahead, with immediate support at 1.4250.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Markets are bracing for Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report with consensus expecting 185,000 new jobs for July, though forecast distribution reveals significant uncertainty. The range of estimates spans from 140K to 230K, with the majority clustered between 170K-200K, suggesting potential for outsized market reactions if data deviates significantly. A stronger-than-expected print above 220K could reinforce dollar strength and push major pairs like EUR/USD below 1.0800 support. Conversely, a disappointing sub-150K reading might trigger dollar weakness and fuel rate cut speculation. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%, while average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% MoM. Given the Federal Reserve's data-dependent stance and recent hawkish pause, this NFP report carries extra weight for determining near-term monetary policy expectations and forex positioning across major pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
European markets face multiple headwinds as an approaching heatwave threatens agricultural output and energy demand, potentially impacting EUR crosses. The extreme weather event could strain power grids and boost energy prices, adding to existing inflationary pressures that the ECB is combating. Meanwhile, escalating US-China trade tensions are creating risk-off sentiment, benefiting safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. Tech stock warnings from major US companies have triggered equity market volatility, with spillover effects into forex markets as investors reassess risk exposure. The combination of climate-related economic disruption, geopolitical tensions, and equity market weakness is creating a complex trading environment. EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.0820, while USD/JPY has retreated to 149.50 as yen buying intensifies. Traders should monitor commodity currencies closely as agricultural and energy market disruptions could significantly impact AUD, CAD, and NZD valuations.
EURUSD
USDJPY
EURJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has declined 0.8% to 1.0790 following the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, with officials signaling rates may remain elevated longer than anticipated. The Fed's emphasis on persistent inflation above 3% has strengthened dollar demand across the board. Meanwhile, USD/JPY plummeted 1.2% to 148.80 after the Bank of Japan surprised markets by revising its inflation outlook upward and hinting at potential policy normalization. The BoJ's shift represents a significant departure from ultra-loose policy, with Governor Ueda suggesting negative rates could end by year-end. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD breaking below the 1.0800 psychological support, targeting 1.0750 next. USD/JPY faces strong support at 148.50, with a break potentially accelerating losses toward 147.00. The diverging central bank stances are reshaping major pair dynamics, with the dollar benefiting against European currencies while losing ground to the increasingly hawkish yen.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has accelerated its decline, breaking below crucial 1.2650 support to trade at 1.2620, down 0.6% on the day and 2.1% for the week. The confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart projects a downside target near 1.2500, representing another 120 pips of potential losses. Dollar strength continues to dominate as US yields rise following hawkish Fed commentary, while UK economic data disappoints with manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.8. The Bank of England's cautious stance amid slowing growth has undermined sterling support. Technical indicators show RSI entering oversold territory below 30, suggesting a potential bounce, though the broader trend remains firmly bearish. Immediate resistance now sits at the broken 1.2650 level, with 1.2700 as the next major hurdle. Traders are positioning for continued pound weakness, with stop-losses clustered above 1.2680 potentially accelerating any corrective bounce.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD surged 0.6% to 1.4350, reaching a two-month high as reduced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and escalating tariff tensions bolstered the US dollar. Markets have scaled back Fed easing bets following robust US labor market data, with futures now pricing only 25 basis points of cuts for 2025. The Canadian dollar faces additional pressure from potential US tariff threats, which could significantly impact Canada's export-dependent economy. Oil prices declining 2% to $78.50/barrel further weakened the commodity-linked CAD. The dollar index climbed to 104.50, reflecting broad USD strength. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD breaking above the 1.4300 resistance level, opening the path toward 1.4400. Support has formed at 1.4280 (previous resistance turned support). Traders are positioning for continued CAD weakness unless oil prices recover or tariff concerns ease.
USDCAD
DXY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY and USD/CHF are testing critical resistance levels as dollar bulls position for potential breakouts ahead of Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report. USD/JPY has consolidated near 150.50, approaching the psychological 151.00 resistance, while USD/CHF hovers around 0.9050, threatening to breach the 0.9100 level. The US Dollar Index has gained 0.4% this week, supported by resilient economic data and hawkish Fed expectations. Markets are pricing in a 185,000 job addition for January, with unemployment expected to remain at 4.1%. A stronger-than-expected payrolls figure could accelerate dollar strength and confirm breakouts in both pairs. Technical indicators show bullish momentum building, with RSI readings above 60 for both pairs. Key support levels stand at 149.80 for USD/JPY and 0.9000 for USD/CHF. Traders should watch for volatility around the employment release, as disappointing data could trigger profit-taking and test these support zones.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD surged 1.2% to 1.4350 and USD/CHF jumped 0.9% to 0.9180 following President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs of 35% on Canadian imports and 39% on Swiss goods. The aggressive trade rhetoric sent shockwaves through forex markets during Friday's Asian session, with both CAD and CHF weakening significantly against the greenback. The Canadian dollar faced additional pressure from concerns over energy sector impacts, while the Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal diminished amid trade uncertainty. Technical indicators show USD/CAD breaking above the 1.4300 resistance level with momentum targeting 1.4400, while USD/CHF cleared the 0.9150 barrier. Traders are positioning for continued volatility as markets assess the likelihood of actual tariff implementation and potential retaliatory measures. The moves mark a significant shift in North American trade dynamics and could trigger broader risk-off sentiment across G10 currencies.
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CNY has strengthened 0.2% to 7.2450 following disappointing Chinese manufacturing data, with traders now awaiting the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July. China's official Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in July, missing expectations and remaining in contraction territory below 50. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also disappointed at 50.2, down from 50.5 previously. The weakness in China's economic indicators has pressured the yuan and other Asia-Pacific currencies, with AUD/USD declining 0.4% given Australia's trade exposure to China. Markets expect the Caixin Manufacturing PMI to show a slight decline but remain in expansion above 50. The divergence between official and Caixin PMIs often reflects different sample compositions, with Caixin focusing more on smaller, private enterprises. Technical resistance for USD/CNY sits at 7.2600, while support holds at 7.2300. Continued weakness in Chinese data could prompt further PBOC easing measures, potentially weakening the yuan further.
USDCNY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index surged 0.23% to reach a fresh 2-month high, driven by robust US economic data revealing labor market resilience and persistent inflationary pressures. Today's employment figures showed stronger-than-expected job openings and wage growth, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its hawkish stance longer than previously anticipated. The combination of sticky price pressures and elevated labor costs suggests the Fed could delay any potential rate cuts, providing sustained support for the greenback. Technical indicators show the dollar index breaking above key resistance levels, with momentum indicators pointing to further upside potential. Major pairs including EUR/USD and GBP/USD faced selling pressure as traders repositioned for a stronger-for-longer dollar scenario. The data reinforces the divergence between US economic performance and other major economies, potentially extending the dollar's relative strength advantage through the summer months.
DXY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has surged to 1.3853, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains and adding 278 pips from the July 23 low of 1.3575. The pair's impressive 2.05% rally has been driven by diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada, with markets pricing in potential BoC rate cuts amid softening Canadian economic data. The breakthrough above the key 100-day moving average at 1.3840 signals strong bullish momentum, attracting technical buyers to the market. Oil price weakness has further pressured the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, as WTI crude trades near monthly lows. Immediate resistance lies at 1.3870 (June high), while the newly conquered 100-day MA should provide support. A sustained break above 1.3870 could open the path toward the psychological 1.4000 level, making this a critical juncture for trend continuation.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Emerging market FX carry trade opportunities are shifting focus for August, with particular attention on regional selection and risk-adjusted returns. The analysis covers major carry pairs including USD/TRY (Turkish Lira), alongside traditional funding currencies EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF. Turkish Lira remains attractive for carry traders despite elevated political risks, offering substantial yield differentials against major currencies. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue serving as preferred funding currencies due to their ultra-low interest rates and safe-haven status. Regional considerations highlight Latin American and Asian emerging markets as potential alternatives to Turkish exposure. Traders are advised to monitor central bank policies closely, as any shifts in monetary stance could rapidly alter carry trade dynamics. Risk management remains crucial given potential volatility spikes in emerging market currencies during global risk-off episodes.
USDTRY
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has rallied sharply following Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's press conference, with the yen weakening across the board as immediate rate hike expectations diminished. The pair gained 0.8% to reach session highs near 153.50, reversing earlier losses after the BoJ maintained its ultra-loose policy stance. While inflation projections were revised higher, Ueda's cautious tone suggested the central bank remains in no rush to normalize policy, disappointing yen bulls who had positioned for a more hawkish shift. US futures maintained their positive momentum throughout the European session, adding to dollar strength. Technical indicators show USD/JPY breaking above the 153.00 resistance level, with next targets at 154.20 (July high). The divergence between Fed and BoJ policy paths continues to favor USD/JPY upside, though traders remain watchful for potential intervention risks above 155.00.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY advanced 0.6% to 153.20 after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, despite raising its inflation projections for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The central bank's updated forecasts show core CPI reaching 2.1% in FY2025 and 2.0% in FY2026, above its 2% target. However, the BoJ's cautious approach to policy normalization and emphasis on data dependence disappointed markets expecting a more aggressive tightening timeline. Governor Ueda hinted at potential future rate hikes but stressed the need to assess wage growth and consumption trends. The yen's weakness was broad-based, with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also posting gains. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY facing resistance at 153.80, while support has formed at 152.50. The policy divergence between the Fed's higher-for-longer stance and BoJ's gradual approach continues to underpin the pair's bullish bias.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has declined sharply to test multi-week lows near 1.2650, dropping 0.8% (105 pips) as disappointing UK economic data compounds pressure from broad dollar strength. UK Manufacturing PMI contracted to 47.2 in July, missing forecasts of 48.5, while consumer confidence plunged to -15, its lowest level since March. The pound's weakness accelerated after Federal Reserve Chair Powell's hawkish stance reinforced expectations for sustained higher US rates. Technical indicators show GBP/USD breaking below the key 1.2700 support level, with immediate support now at 1.2630 (June low). Resistance stands at 1.2720 (former support turned resistance). The bearish momentum suggests further downside toward 1.2600 psychological support is likely, especially if upcoming UK GDP data disappoints. Traders should monitor the Bank of England's response to weakening economic indicators.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD continues its downward trajectory, trading at 1.0765 after falling 0.5% (55 pips) as persistent selling pressure undermines the euro. The US Dollar Index surged to 104.50, its highest level in three weeks, supported by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and robust US economic fundamentals. European economic concerns intensify with German industrial production showing unexpected weakness and ECB officials hinting at a potential pause in rate hikes. Technical analysis reveals EUR/USD has broken below the critical 1.0800 psychological support, with the next major support at 1.0730 (May low). Resistance now stands at 1.0800-1.0820 zone. The bearish momentum indicators and negative divergence on the daily RSI suggest selling pressure will likely persist. Traders are positioning for a potential test of 1.0700 if upcoming Eurozone inflation data disappoints market expectations.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has staged a recovery to 152.80, gaining 0.4% (60 pips) following Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's dovish press conference remarks. Ueda stated there is "no clear prescription" for dealing with the challenges of raising interest rates, dampening expectations for aggressive policy normalization. The yen's weakness was exacerbated by the contrast with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, widening the US-Japan yield differential. Markets had anticipated a more definitive timeline for BOJ policy adjustments, but Ueda's cautious tone suggests the ultra-loose monetary policy will persist longer than expected. Technical indicators show USD/JPY bouncing from support at 152.20, with immediate resistance at 153.20 (weekly high). The pair's positive momentum shift indicates potential for a retest of the 154.00 psychological level if US yields continue rising. Traders should monitor upcoming Japanese inflation data for further policy clues.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index has surged to 104.50, marking a three-week high after gaining 0.7% following Federal Reserve Chair Powell's unexpectedly hawkish commentary. Powell emphasized the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation "until the job is done," reinforcing expectations for rates to remain higher for longer. Markets have repriced the probability of rate cuts in 2025, with futures now showing only 50 basis points of easing versus 75 basis points previously expected. The dollar's strength was broad-based, with EUR/USD falling to 1.0765 and GBP/USD dropping below 1.2700. Technical analysis shows the DXY breaking above key resistance at 104.20, opening the path toward 105.00. The bullish momentum is supported by strong US economic fundamentals and widening interest rate differentials. Traders are positioning for continued dollar strength ahead of next week's US inflation data.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Historical seasonality data suggests renewed downside pressure for GBP/USD and AUD/USD entering August, with both pairs showing consistent weakness during this month over the past decade. GBP/USD, currently at 1.2680, has declined an average of 1.2% in August over the last 10 years, while AUD/USD at 0.6540 typically falls 1.5% during the same period. The seasonal weakness coincides with typical summer liquidity drains and risk-off positioning ahead of September's heavy economic calendar. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD approaching critical support at 1.2650, while AUD/USD tests the 0.6520 level. EUR/USD and USD/JPY also exhibit August volatility patterns, though less pronounced. The combination of seasonal factors, current technical setups, and fundamental headwinds suggests traders should prepare for potential continuation of recent downtrends. Risk management becomes crucial as reduced liquidity can amplify price movements.
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD trades near 1.0785, showing limited movement as markets await German state CPI readings later today. Germany's inflation continues hovering above the ECB's 2% target, with June's headline CPI at 2.0% year-over-year while core inflation remains elevated at 2.7%. July's headline inflation is forecast to ease to 1.9%, potentially offering some relief to ECB policymakers. The persistent core inflation above target complicates the ECB's monetary policy stance, limiting scope for rate cuts. Technical indicators show EUR/USD consolidating within a tight 1.0770-1.0800 range, with immediate resistance at 1.0800 and support at 1.0750. A softer-than-expected German CPI reading could pressure the euro below 1.0750, while any upside surprise might push the pair toward 1.0820. Traders remain cautious ahead of the data release, with the inflation dynamics crucial for ECB policy expectations.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
