The US Dollar Index has declined to near three-month lows around 106.20, pressured by softer-than-expected labor market data that has increased uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. Recent employment indicators showed job openings falling more than anticipated, while wage growth moderated, suggesting cooling labor market conditions. This data has fueled speculation that the Fed might adopt a more dovish stance in upcoming meetings, with markets now pricing in a 65% probability of a rate cut by March 2025. EUR/USD has benefited from dollar weakness, climbing toward 1.0580 and approaching 12-week highs ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy decision. Technical indicators suggest the dollar remains vulnerable, with the DXY testing support at 106.00. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward 105.50, while any recovery faces resistance at 106.80.
EURUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD is trading with a bearish bias near 1.4350 as markets anticipate President Trump's executive order to fast-track cannabis reclassification, potentially benefiting Canadian cannabis companies listed on US exchanges. The move would formally recognize cannabis's medical value under federal law for the first time, marking a significant policy shift that could strengthen the Canadian dollar through increased cross-border cannabis sector investment flows. Canadian cannabis stocks have rallied in pre-market trading, with major producers seeing gains of 5-8%. The development adds to existing CAD support from stable oil prices near $71/barrel. Technical indicators show USD/CAD facing immediate resistance at 1.4380 (50-day moving average), with support established at 1.4320. A break below support could accelerate the pair's decline toward 1.4280, while any disappointment in the executive order details might see the pair recover toward 1.4400.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
NZD/USD is poised for upward momentum following New Zealand's consumer confidence index jumping to 96.5 in Q4 from 90.9 in Q3, marking a significant improvement in economic sentiment. The 5.6-point increase represents the highest confidence level in recent quarters, signaling robust consumer spending prospects that could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Strong consumer confidence typically translates to increased retail spending and economic growth, potentially delaying any rate cuts or supporting further tightening. The kiwi dollar faces immediate resistance at 0.5750, with support established at 0.5680. Market participants are reassessing RBNZ rate expectations, with the improved data reducing dovish bets for 2025. This positive sentiment shift strengthens NZD against major counterparts, particularly USD, as traders position for potential hawkish RBNZ commentary in upcoming meetings.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD is trading near 0.6630, consolidating within a well-defined range between 0.6400-0.6700 as traders await clearer directional signals. The pair successfully defended crucial support at 0.6617 and the 0.66247-0.6635 swing area, maintaining a modestly bullish short-term bias. This defense prevented what could have been a failed breakout pattern, keeping buyers in control for now. The persistent two-way price action reflects ongoing market uncertainty and lack of conviction from either bulls or bears. Technical indicators suggest the pair remains trapped in this volatile pattern, with immediate resistance at the 0.6700 range high. A decisive break above this level could trigger momentum buying toward 0.6750, while failure to hold above the 0.6617 support zone would likely accelerate corrective downside toward 0.6500. Traders should monitor these key levels closely as a breakout in either direction could establish the next medium-term trend.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar faces renewed selling pressure as White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated there's 'plenty of room to cut rates,' signaling potential dovish shifts in monetary policy. His comments suggest the Trump administration may push for more accommodative Fed policy, though Hassett emphasized the need for consensus based on facts and data. Despite bullish projections for 2026, Hassett acknowledged recent jobs data was distorted by government shutdowns, adding uncertainty to employment figures. Markets are now pricing in higher probability of rate cuts in H1 2025, weakening the dollar against major peers. Technical indicators show the DXY (Dollar Index) testing support at 106.50, with a break below potentially accelerating USD weakness. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed communications and economic data releases for confirmation of policy direction shifts.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD advanced 0.25% to 1.2720 in Monday's session, supported by better-than-expected UK employment figures that eased concerns about economic weakness. The pound's strength contrasts with broader dollar softness and declining oil prices, with WTI crude falling below $70 per barrel. Technical analysis identifies immediate resistance at 1.2750, coinciding with the 50-day moving average, while support holds firm at 1.2680. The pair shows bullish momentum indicators with RSI climbing above 55, suggesting further upside potential. Traders are positioning ahead of Wednesday's UK PMI data and Friday's crucial US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could determine whether GBP/USD breaks above the 1.2800 psychological level. Oil's weakness may provide additional support for Sterling as lower energy costs reduce UK inflation pressures, potentially giving the Bank of England more policy flexibility.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has slipped 0.1% to 1.0515 as Eurozone's October trade balance disappointed at €18.4 billion, missing expectations and matching the downward-revised September figure. The data reveals concerning trends in transatlantic trade, with exports to the US plummeting nearly 15% year-over-year while imports rose 4%, narrowing the trade surplus with America to €11.2 billion from €19.5 billion in 2023. This deterioration adds pressure on the euro ahead of potential US tariff implementations. The pair faces immediate support at 1.0500 psychological level, with resistance at 1.0550 (20-day moving average). Traders are monitoring escalating trade tensions that could further weaken European export competitiveness. The narrowing surplus suggests economic headwinds for the Eurozone, potentially influencing ECB policy decisions as growth concerns mount alongside persistent trade challenges.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD climbed 0.35% to 1.2735 following robust UK employment data that showed unemployment holding steady at 4.3% while wage growth exceeded expectations at 5.2% year-over-year. The positive jobs report alleviates immediate pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates, supporting Sterling strength. Markets now await Wednesday's UK Services PMI, expected at 50.8, and Friday's pivotal US Non-Farm Payrolls data, forecast to show 185K jobs added. Technical analysis reveals the pair broke above the 1.2700 resistance level, opening path toward 1.2780 (November high). The 200-day moving average at 1.2690 now acts as dynamic support. With the BoE meeting scheduled for December 19th, traders are pricing in a 65% probability of rates holding steady, compared to 45% last week, further underpinning pound strength against the dollar.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD faces downward pressure following weaker-than-expected French PMI data for December. The services PMI dropped to 50.2 from 51.4 previously, missing the 51.1 forecast and barely holding above the 50.0 expansion threshold. Manufacturing showed surprising strength at 50.6 versus 48.1 expected, but the composite PMI at 50.1 indicates economic stagnation. The mixed data suggests France's economy is losing momentum heading into year-end, with the crucial services sector showing particular weakness. This divergence between manufacturing and services creates uncertainty for EUR traders. The data weighs on the euro as markets assess whether this weakness will spread to other Eurozone economies. Technical levels show EUR/USD testing support near 1.0500, with resistance at 1.0550. Traders await German and Eurozone-wide PMI releases later today for further direction, as persistent economic weakness could influence ECB policy decisions in early 2025.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY remains compressed in a narrow 152.50-153.20 range, with implied volatility dropping to three-month lows ahead of Thursday's Bank of Japan policy meeting and Friday's US employment data. The pair's 20-day average true range has contracted to just 95 pips, signaling an imminent breakout. Markets assign 25% probability to a BoJ rate hike this week, with speculation mounting over potential policy normalization. Technical indicators show converging moving averages and Bollinger Bands at their tightest since September, classic precursors to explosive moves. Key resistance sits at 153.50 (December high), while support holds at 152.00 (psychological level). A hawkish BoJ surprise could trigger a sharp decline toward 150.00, while disappointing US NFP data below 150K jobs would likely pressure the pair lower. Conversely, strong US data combined with a dovish BoJ could propel USD/JPY toward 155.00.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has declined 0.5% to 1.4250 as the Canadian dollar gains ground amid improving risk sentiment and stable commodity prices. The loonie's strength comes despite broader USD resilience against other majors, suggesting Canada-specific factors are driving the move. Oil prices holding above $71/barrel support the commodity-linked currency, while market positioning suggests traders are reducing long USD/CAD positions accumulated during recent dollar strength. Technical indicators show the pair breaking below the 1.4300 support level, opening potential for further declines toward 1.4200. The 50-day moving average at 1.4180 represents the next significant support zone. Upcoming Canadian inflation data and Bank of Canada communications could provide additional direction. The current momentum favors continued CAD strength, particularly if oil prices remain supportive and risk appetite improves further in global markets.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD maintains position above 1.0500, trading at 1.0520 with minimal movement as traders position ahead of critical events. The pair shows resilience following last week's ECB hold on rates, with markets now focused on upcoming EU PMI data and Friday's crucial US Non-Farm Payrolls report. Current stability reflects balanced forces, with ECB's cautious stance on rate cuts supporting the euro while solid US economic data underpins dollar strength. Technical analysis reveals the pair consolidating between 1.0480 support and 1.0550 resistance, with the 200-day moving average at 1.0535 acting as a pivot point. EU PMI readings expected Wednesday could provide near-term direction, while US employment data remains the week's main event. Traders anticipate NFP around 200K jobs added; a significant deviation could trigger substantial EUR/USD volatility and influence Fed rate cut expectations.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY advances 0.3% to 152.20 as extreme bullish sentiment in US equities supports risk-on flows, with S&P 500 sentiment indicators reaching overbought territory. The yen weakens across the board as traders dismiss near-term intervention risks from Japanese authorities, focusing instead on divergent monetary policies. Gold struggles near $2,650/oz as dollar strength and elevated equity sentiment reduce safe-haven demand. EUR/USD remains range-bound at 1.0515, caught between dollar strength and eurozone concerns. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY approaching key resistance at 152.50, with momentum indicators supporting further upside potential toward 153.00. However, extreme sentiment readings in equities warn of potential reversal risks. The Nasdaq 100's extended rally adds to concerns about market positioning. Traders should monitor for any shift in risk appetite that could trigger profit-taking and support traditional safe havens.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD faces heightened volatility ahead of today's Non-Farm Payrolls release, following last week's 25 basis point Fed rate cut that brought the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. The dollar index has shown mixed performance, consolidating near 106.50 as markets digest the Fed's final policy move of 2024. Speculation around Kevin Warsh potentially replacing Jerome Powell as Fed Chair adds another layer of uncertainty to dollar positioning. Market consensus expects NFP to show 200K job additions for November, with unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Any significant deviation could trigger sharp moves across major USD pairs, particularly EUR/USD trading near 1.0500 and USD/JPY hovering around 152.00. Strong employment data could support dollar recovery and validate the Fed's cautious approach to further easing, while disappointing figures might accelerate bearish momentum as traders price in additional 2025 rate cuts.
EURUSD
USDJPY
DXY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CNY has declined sharply with the Chinese yuan reaching a 14-month high against the dollar, as China signals commitment to maintaining economic growth around 5% for 2026. The China Securities Times reported policymakers are debating between targeting 5% growth or adopting a wider 4.5%-5.0% range, suggesting continued policy support for the economy. Recent data showed China's economy stabilizing in November, despite persistent weak consumer demand clouding the growth outlook. The yuan's strength reflects market confidence in China's pragmatic approach to economic management and expectations of sustained policy support. Technical indicators suggest USD/CNY faces immediate support at current levels, with further yuan appreciation possible if China announces concrete stimulus measures. Traders should monitor upcoming Chinese economic data releases and policy announcements from the PBOC, as these could significantly impact the pair's trajectory in the near term.
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY declined to test the 200-bar moving average at 155.29 during Asian trading before rebounding into neutral territory. The pair's downward probe mirrored Thursday's price action, where sellers similarly failed to sustain momentum below this critical technical level. The quick recovery suggests strong buying interest at the 155.29 support zone, with the 4-hour chart showing renewed consolidation above the moving average. Market participants are closely monitoring whether bulls can maintain control above this key technical threshold. The repeated defense of 155.29 establishes it as a significant support level, while resistance likely emerges near recent highs. Traders should watch for a decisive break below 155.29, which could signal further downside toward 154.50, or a push above 156.00 that might reignite bullish momentum. The current neutral range suggests market indecision ahead of potential catalysts.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
XAU/USD has surged 64% year-to-date, trading near record highs above $2,650, with Scotiabank maintaining an Overweight stance on precious metals despite profit-taking pressures. The bank's analysis highlights six key factors supporting further gold appreciation: persistent central bank accumulation, ongoing geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, structural dollar weakness, inflation hedge demand, and robust technical momentum. Silver has outperformed with gains approaching 128%, while gold mining equities have rallied 130%. Scotiabank analysts emphasize that the fundamental drivers remain intact, particularly with central banks diversifying reserves away from USD holdings. Technical indicators suggest strong support at $2,600, with potential upside targets near $2,800 if current momentum persists. The bullish outlook reflects broader market concerns about currency debasement and monetary policy uncertainty, positioning gold as a preferred safe-haven asset for forex traders hedging dollar exposure.
XAUUSD
XAGUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The Dollar Index declined throughout the week ending December 12, pressured by the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut and forward guidance. The six-currency basket measuring dollar strength weakened as markets digested the Fed's monetary policy decision, which aligned with consensus expectations but included less hawkish commentary than some anticipated. The central bank's tone suggested a more measured approach to future tightening, weighing on dollar sentiment across major pairs. Market participants interpreted the Fed's communication as signaling potential pause in the aggressive rate trajectory, leading to broad-based dollar selling. The index's decline reflected shifting rate differential expectations between the US and other major economies. Technical indicators point to further near-term weakness if support levels fail to hold. Traders are now focusing on upcoming economic data and Fed speaker comments for clues about the policy path ahead, with dollar vulnerability likely to persist if dovish sentiment remains.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The Japanese yen led gains among major currencies as USD/JPY fell 0.8% to 151.20, breaking below the 152.00 psychological support level. Better-than-expected Japanese wage data fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike at next week's policy meeting, with markets now pricing in a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Japan's November wage growth accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and supporting the BoJ's normalization path. Meanwhile, the dollar faced broad selling pressure as traders positioned ahead of this week's US Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI releases. Technical indicators show USD/JPY targeting the 150.50 support zone, with resistance now established at 152.50. The yen's strength extended across other pairs, with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also declining sharply. Traders should monitor upcoming BoJ communications for further directional cues.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar entered a consolidation phase across major pairs, with DXY holding steady near 106.50 as markets await crucial economic data. This week's calendar features US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and CPI data, which could trigger sharp moves in currency markets. EUR/USD trades in a tight 1.0480-1.0520 range, with the ECB expected to maintain rates at Thursday's meeting. GBP/USD hovers around 1.2650, awaiting UK inflation and retail sales data that could influence Bank of England policy expectations. USD/JPY remains under pressure at 151.30 amid rising BoJ rate hike speculation, while USD/CHF tests support at 0.8850. Technical analysis suggests major pairs are coiling for breakout moves, with implied volatility rising ahead of the data-heavy week. Traders should prepare for potential range expansion as central bank divergence themes dominate market sentiment.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
