USD/CAD is exhibiting a cautiously bullish posture as traders await a decisive break above the key 1.3730 resistance level. The pair experienced significant volatility following the US postponement of military strikes on Iran, which triggered a broad risk-on sentiment shift across financial markets. The geopolitical de-escalation reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar while simultaneously easing pressure on crude oil prices, a critical factor for the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. Despite the risk-on environment typically favoring CAD strength, the pair's bullish bias suggests underlying USD resilience, potentially driven by persistent interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. The 1.3730 level represents a pivotal technical threshold; a sustained break above could open the path toward 1.3800, while failure to breach resistance may see the pair consolidate back toward 1.3650 support. Traders should remain vigilant for any re-escalation in Middle East tensions, which could rapidly reverse current positioning. Upcoming Canadian GDP and US employment data will also serve as key directional catalysts.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY faces upward pressure as Japan's March flash composite PMI data revealed a broad-based cooling in economic momentum, potentially undermining the case for near-term Bank of Japan tightening. The services PMI eased to 52.8 from 53.8, while manufacturing PMI dropped more sharply to 51.4 from 53.0. Manufacturing output saw the steepest decline, falling to 51.8 from 54.2 in the prior reading. While both sectors remain in expansion territory above 50, the deceleration signals fading growth momentum in the Japanese economy. Adding to concerns, cost pressures continued to rise, creating a stagflationary dynamic that complicates the BOJ's policy outlook. The combination of slowing activity and persistent inflation inputs may lead the central bank to adopt a more cautious stance on further rate normalization. Traders should monitor upcoming BOJ commentary for guidance on the rate path. Near-term, the softening PMI data is JPY-negative, as reduced tightening expectations could weigh on the currency against its major counterparts, particularly the US dollar.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Gold (XAU/USD) is facing significant corrective pressure after an extended rally, with DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach signaling a lack of enthusiasm for both credit markets and equities at current levels. The prominent bond investor's cautious stance suggests a broader risk-off environment may be developing, though gold's traditional safe-haven appeal could be tempered by its technically overbought conditions. Gundlach's comments highlight that gold was 'wildly overdue for a correction,' indicating that the precious metal's recent parabolic advance has stretched beyond sustainable levels. For forex traders, the correction in gold often correlates with short-term USD strength, as profit-taking in commodities can drive flows back into the dollar. Key support levels for XAU/USD will be closely watched as the market digests these bearish signals. Traders should monitor whether the correction deepens or if dip-buyers emerge at technical support zones. The broader implications for risk sentiment could also weigh on commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and CAD.
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Ferrari N.V. has released its periodic report on its share buyback program, dated March 23, 2026, from its Maranello headquarters. While this corporate action has limited direct implications for the broader forex market, it does reflect ongoing capital allocation strategies among major European corporations. Share buyback programs can signal corporate confidence in the equity market and indirectly support the euro through increased foreign investment flows into European equities. The EUR/USD pair remains largely unaffected by this specific announcement, as currency traders focus on macroeconomic drivers such as ECB monetary policy and Eurozone economic data. Ferrari's buyback activity contributes modestly to euro-denominated capital flows, but the magnitude is insufficient to move the currency pair meaningfully. Traders should note that sustained corporate buyback activity across European blue-chip firms can cumulatively support euro demand over time. Near-term EUR/USD direction will more likely be determined by upcoming central bank communications and economic releases.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is pushing higher and testing the day's highs as buyers attempt to gain further control of price action. The pair's upward momentum is being driven by a broad shift in market sentiment, with participants increasingly pricing in the likelihood of an imminent deal, easing uncertainty and boosting risk appetite across asset classes. US equities are reflecting this optimism, with the S&P 500 rallying approximately 2%–2.25% and reclaiming a key technical level in the process. The improving risk environment is weighing on the US dollar as safe-haven demand diminishes, providing a tailwind for EUR/USD. On the technical front, the pair is now challenging intraday resistance at the session highs, and a sustained break above this level could open the door for further upside. Traders should monitor whether the bullish momentum holds through the US session, as continued equity strength and fading volatility could reinforce the current directional bias favoring euro buyers over the near term.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar retreated broadly against major currencies during the week ending March 20, with the Dollar Index declining despite heightened geopolitical risks from Middle East conflict escalation and rising energy price concerns. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its rate cut projection was the dominant driver, signaling that policymakers remain on track to ease monetary policy despite persistent inflation worries. This dovish stance pressured the greenback against the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY pairs, as traders repriced rate expectations. Notably, the dollar's weakness came even as Middle East tensions typically boost safe-haven demand for the currency, suggesting that monetary policy expectations are currently overriding geopolitical risk premiums. Rising energy prices from the conflict could weigh on oil-importing economies and support commodity currencies like CAD. Traders should watch for upcoming US inflation and employment data that could alter the Fed's rate path. Key resistance for the Dollar Index lies at prior weekly highs, while further dovish Fed rhetoric could accelerate dollar losses across major pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran-US relations are creating uncertainty in oil-linked currency pairs after Iranian local media denied any direct or indirect contact with the Trump administration, contradicting earlier claims from the US side. The report, highlighted by Amena Bakr, head of Kpler's energy market and OPEC+ intelligence and a highly reputable source in the oil market, suggests potential escalation risks that could further impact crude oil prices and subsequently oil-sensitive currencies. USD/CAD and other commodity-linked pairs such as AUD/USD and NOK crosses remain vulnerable to sudden swings as traders assess the credibility gap between conflicting narratives. Elevated crude oil prices typically benefit the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone while pressuring net oil-importing currencies like the Japanese yen and Indian rupee. Traders should monitor developments closely, as any breakdown in diplomatic channels could trigger a risk-off move, strengthening safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. Near-term positioning should account for heightened headline risk and widening spreads in oil-correlated pairs.
USDCAD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Japan's largest union group Rengo has announced an average wage hike of 5.26% for the current fiscal year, reinforcing expectations of continued Bank of Japan monetary policy normalization and placing downward pressure on USD/JPY. The figure closely mirrors last fiscal year's trajectory, where the preliminary 5.46% was ultimately confirmed at 5.25%, suggesting the final number may settle slightly lower following standard revision practices. Sustained wage growth above 5% is significant as it supports the BOJ's confidence that a virtuous cycle of wages and inflation is taking hold, potentially paving the way for further rate hikes. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve's current stance, where rate cut expectations have been building, creating a narrowing interest rate differential that favors yen strength. Traders should monitor USD/JPY for continued bearish momentum, with key support levels in focus. The wage data reinforces a hawkish BOJ outlook, and any upward surprises in final wage figures could accelerate yen appreciation. Near-term, cross-yen pairs such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY may also face selling pressure as the yen-positive narrative strengthens.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
A sharp surge in crude oil prices is driving significant repositioning across major currency pairs, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and EUR/GBP all experiencing notable moves as traders recalibrate exposure to energy-sensitive economies. The oil rally, fueled by geopolitical supply concerns and tightening OPEC+ dynamics, is supporting commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar while creating headwinds for net energy importers in Europe. EUR/USD faces downward pressure as higher energy costs threaten to weigh on Eurozone growth and widen the trade deficit, while GBP/USD reflects similar dynamics given the UK's energy import dependency. AUD/USD is finding a bid on the back of Australia's resource export profile, with the pair testing resistance levels as risk appetite tilts in favor of commodity exporters. EUR/GBP cross flows indicate relative euro weakness against sterling, suggesting differentiated impact across European economies. Traders should watch for follow-through in oil prices, as sustained elevation above current levels could entrench these currency trends in the near term.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD appears to be finding a floor after an extended period of positioning unwind, with the pair stabilizing as speculative long euro positions that had accumulated during the recent rally are largely flushed out. The correction, which saw EUR/USD retrace from recent highs, has been driven primarily by mechanical deleveraging rather than a fundamental shift in the macro outlook, suggesting the pair may be approaching a base from which a recovery could develop. Market positioning data indicates that the bulk of overcrowded euro longs have been unwound, reducing the overhang that had been capping upside progress. From a fundamental perspective, the relative monetary policy trajectories of the ECB and Federal Reserve remain broadly supportive of the euro at current levels, with rate differential expectations stabilizing. Key technical support is being tested, and a successful hold could attract fresh buying interest. Traders should watch for confirmation of a base formation through price action and volume, as a failure to hold current levels could extend the corrective move toward deeper support zones.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is trading slightly higher in early indicative pricing as the new trading week opens on Monday, March 23, 2026. The modest USD strength comes during extremely thin and erratic market conditions typical of the Asian session open, with wholesale market participants yet to fully engage and algorithmic trading systems still coming online. The lack of meaningful liquidity means these early price indications should be treated with caution, as spreads remain wide and price action is prone to sudden, exaggerated moves that may not reflect the broader market consensus. No specific economic data releases or central bank commentary have been cited as drivers of the early dollar bid. Traders should expect more reliable price discovery once major financial centers in Tokyo, London, and New York come online. Key levels across major USD pairs will become clearer as volume normalizes. Market participants are advised to wait for deeper liquidity before committing to directional positions, as early-week gaps and thin conditions can produce misleading signals.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar benefited from safe-haven flows this week as escalating Middle East conflict and surging oil prices drove risk-off sentiment across global markets. Stocks ended the week lower, reflecting investor anxiety over geopolitical instability, while the greenback gained ground against risk-sensitive currencies. Rising crude oil prices, a direct consequence of supply disruption fears tied to the conflict, placed particular pressure on oil-importing nations' currencies, notably USD/JPY and EUR/USD. The Japanese yen also saw intermittent safe-haven demand, though dollar strength largely dominated. USD/CAD saw notable volatility as higher oil prices supported the Canadian dollar, partially offsetting broader USD strength. For commodity-linked pairs such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD, the risk-off environment created headwinds despite firmer commodity prices. Traders should monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as further escalation could amplify USD demand. Near-term, key support for EUR/USD sits near recent weekly lows, while resistance for the DXY index lies at the week's highs. Risk management remains critical amid elevated volatility.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Broad risk-off sentiment dominated Americas trading as escalating US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz left markets with 'nowhere to hide.' President Trump characterized reopening Hormuz as 'a simple military manoeuvre,' while reports indicate the US has made detailed preparations for potential ground troops in Iran. A US assessment suggests Iran could keep Hormuz shut for one to six months, with Tehran reportedly unwilling to negotiate while under attack. Oil prices surged on supply disruption fears, with Fed's Waller warning that sustained high oil prices could bleed into inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Canadian economic data disappointed, with January retail sales rising 1.1% versus the 1.5% expected, while February producer prices came in at +0.4% m/m versus +1.1% forecast, suggesting softening domestic demand. The weak Canadian data combined with surging oil prices creates a complex backdrop for USD/CAD, as oil-linked CAD support is offset by deteriorating economic fundamentals. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as prolonged Hormuz disruption could significantly reshape central bank rate expectations and drive sustained volatility across commodity-linked currencies.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical risk is surging as CNN reports US intelligence assessments warning that Iran could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for one to six months, sending shockwaves through energy and currency markets. The Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, citing four sources, highlights that US officials privately acknowledge reopening the critical waterway lacks a clear solution. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, and a prolonged closure would dramatically escalate energy prices and amplify inflationary pressures worldwide. Oil-sensitive currencies such as CAD and NOK stand to benefit, while energy-importing nations' currencies like JPY and EUR face headwinds from rising import costs. The USD is likely to see safe-haven inflows amid the escalating conflict uncertainty. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for potential downside as crude rallies, while USD/JPY could see upward pressure as risk aversion and energy costs weigh on the yen. This development significantly raises the geopolitical risk premium across all major forex pairs.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar has moved to fresh session highs on Thursday, driven by a sharp rise in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark climbing to 4.407%—its highest level since August 1, 2025. The yield has surged over 10 basis points this week, reflecting shifting expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy and persistent inflation concerns. Rising yields increase the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, drawing capital flows into the greenback and pressuring risk-sensitive currencies. The move comes amid a broader repricing of rate expectations, with markets reassessing the timeline for potential Fed rate cuts. The DXY dollar index has tracked the yield surge higher, reinforcing bullish momentum in the near term. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data releases and Fed commentary for further directional cues. Key resistance for the 10-year yield sits near the 4.45% level, while support has formed around 4.35%. Sustained elevated yields could continue to underpin USD strength across major pairs in the sessions ahead.
USDX
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is climbing as the Bank of England adopts a notably hawkish stance, signaling its readiness to raise interest rates should energy-driven inflationary pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict intensify further. The central bank's forward guidance suggests policymakers are prioritizing inflation containment over growth concerns, a posture that has strengthened the pound against the dollar. Rising oil prices stemming from the Iran conflict and potential Strait of Hormuz closure are feeding directly into UK inflation expectations, giving the BoE justification for maintaining or tightening monetary policy. The hawkish rhetoric contrasts with fading US rate cut expectations, creating a supportive differential for sterling. Traders are watching for key resistance near recent highs, with a sustained break potentially opening the path toward higher levels. Support remains well-defined at prior consolidation zones. The combination of hawkish BoE messaging and geopolitical inflation risks positions GBP/USD for continued upward momentum in the near term, though energy-related headwinds to the UK economy could eventually cap gains.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is falling sharply as the ongoing Iran conflict continues to weigh on risk sentiment while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts fade. Brent crude oil futures remain elevated amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions, with the potential Strait of Hormuz closure amplifying inflationary concerns that undermine the case for monetary easing. The US Dollar Index futures are reflecting mixed dynamics — benefiting from safe-haven demand yet constrained by the deteriorating US equity outlook. GBP/USD is referenced in the context of broader dollar movements, with the British pound gaining ground as the Bank of England maintains hawkish positioning. The combination of persistent geopolitical risk, sticky inflation expectations, and reduced rate cut probability creates a challenging environment for risk assets. Traders should watch the DXY for directional cues, as the interplay between safe-haven USD demand and weakening US growth expectations could produce volatile, range-bound trading conditions across major forex pairs in the sessions ahead.
GBPUSD
USDX
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is under significant pressure with the 157.40 level emerging as a critical technical zone, as hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of England collectively undermine broad US dollar strength. The convergence of tighter monetary policy stances from three major central banks is reshaping interest rate differentials against the greenback, demonstrating that USD dominance is not absolute in the current environment. The BoJ's hawkish tilt is particularly impactful for the yen, as markets price in further normalization of Japanese monetary policy. Meanwhile, the ECB and BoE's inflation-fighting rhetoric — driven partly by energy price surges from the Middle East conflict — is supporting EUR and GBP against the dollar, creating a broader USD-negative backdrop. A decisive break below 157.40 could accelerate yen appreciation toward the next support zone. Traders should closely monitor central bank commentary and energy price developments, as these dual catalysts are likely to dictate USD/JPY direction in the near term.
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD remains on an upward trajectory with analysts projecting a potential move toward the 1.20 level, driven by a confluence of hawkish European Central Bank signaling and broader US dollar softening. The ECB's commitment to combating inflation — exacerbated by surging energy prices linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks — is supporting elevated rate expectations in the eurozone. Simultaneously, fading US rate cut bets have not been sufficient to sustain dollar strength, as hawkish pivots from multiple global central banks dilute the greenback's yield advantage. The 1.20 target represents a significant psychological and technical milestone that would mark a notable euro recovery. Key resistance levels on the path to 1.20 will need to be cleared with conviction, supported by sustained fundamental drivers. Traders should watch upcoming ECB policy meetings and US economic data releases for catalysts that could either accelerate or stall this projected move. Risk remains tilted to the upside as long as the ECB maintains its hawkish bias.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar recouped earlier losses during the European session on Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to dominate market sentiment. Reports that former President Trump is considering occupying Iran's Kharg Island to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz intensified risk-off flows, providing safe-haven support for the greenback. Meanwhile, the euro faced mixed signals as the ECB appointed Vujčić as its next vice president and hawkish policymaker rhetoric surfaced, with one official suggesting an April rate hike may be necessary if the inflation outlook deteriorates further. ECB policymaker Villeroy also weighed in, noting that potential rate hikes would be data-dependent. US equity markets remained under pressure heading into the close, reinforcing defensive positioning. The conflicting forces of dollar safe-haven demand against potential ECB tightening leave EUR/USD in a tug-of-war. Traders should monitor weekend developments in the Middle East for potential gap risk at Monday's open, while keeping an eye on evolving ECB rate expectations as a key directional catalyst for the pair.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
