WTI Light Crude Oil futures have declined to $69.84, trading below yesterday's close as technical indicators triggered short positions. The oil market's weakness reflects multiple technical factors that prompted bearish positioning overnight. While specific technical levels weren't detailed in the source, the move suggests key support levels have been breached, validating the short trade setup. Oil prices directly impact commodity currencies like CAD, NOK, and RUB, with lower oil prices typically pressuring these currencies against majors. The decline in crude prices could strengthen USD/CAD as the Canadian dollar weakens on lower energy export values. Traders should monitor the $70.00 psychological level as potential resistance, while further downside could target support zones around $68.50-69.00. The bearish oil outlook may continue to weigh on commodity-linked forex pairs in upcoming sessions.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY remains unchanged at 153.20 following the Bank of Japan's decision to keep monetary policy on hold as widely expected. The yen showed limited reaction despite disappointing Chinese PMI data that typically weighs on risk sentiment. China's manufacturing PMI fell below expectations, signaling continued economic weakness in Japan's largest trading partner. The BoJ's decision to maintain its ultra-loose policy stance contrasts sharply with other major central banks, keeping downward pressure on the yen. Market participants noted muted volatility across Asian FX pairs despite the weak Chinese data. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY trapped between 152.80 support and 153.50 resistance, with a neutral bias prevailing. The pair's next directional move likely depends on upcoming US economic data and any shifts in global risk sentiment. Traders should monitor the 154.00 psychological level as a key upside target.
USDJPY
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The Japanese yen has strengthened notably against major currencies in thin overnight trading, with USD/JPY declining ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy announcement expected between 02:30-03:30 GMT. The move reflects heightened speculation about potential policy adjustments from the BoJ, as traders position defensively before the central bank statement. Thin liquidity conditions have amplified the yen's gains, creating sharper price movements than typical trading sessions would allow. The market remains highly sensitive to any hints of policy normalization from the BoJ, which has maintained ultra-loose monetary policy for years. A hawkish surprise could trigger further yen appreciation, potentially pushing USD/JPY below key support levels. Conversely, maintaining the status quo might reverse current yen strength. Traders should prepare for increased volatility around the announcement time, with potential ripple effects across JPY crosses including EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CNH is trading near 7.2850, showing marginal weakness as China announces stricter oversight of precious metals and gemstone transactions starting Friday. The new regulations require reporting of all high-value cash purchases in these markets, signaling Beijing's intensified efforts to monitor capital flows and strengthen financial system transparency. This move could impact dollar demand in China as authorities seek to curb potential money laundering and underground banking activities often facilitated through precious metals trading. The policy aligns with China's broader financial reform agenda and may reduce unofficial dollar circulation channels. Technical indicators show USD/CNH consolidating below the 7.30 resistance level, with immediate support at 7.2750. Traders should monitor how these regulations affect capital flow patterns and yuan stability, as tighter controls typically support the local currency by reducing capital flight opportunities through alternative investment channels.
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD has declined sharply to new session lows, breaking below the critical 100-day moving average at 1.3334, which had provided support during yesterday's trading. This technical breakdown signals a shift in market bias from neutral to bearish, as the pair extends losses amid strengthening dollar momentum. The breach of this key technical level, which had acted as a defensive floor for buyers, opens the path for further downside toward the next support zone around 1.3280 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Technical indicators are turning increasingly negative, with the RSI dropping below 45 and MACD crossing into bearish territory. Traders are now watching for any retest of the broken 1.3334 level, which could now act as resistance. A failure to reclaim this level would confirm the bearish breakdown and potentially accelerate selling pressure toward the 1.3250 psychological support.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
NZD/USD has broken below the critical 0.5914 trendline support that has been connecting higher lows since May, signaling a potential shift in momentum favoring sellers. The pair's breach of this technical floor opens the path for further downside, with the immediate target at 0.5903, marking July's low. This trendline break represents a significant technical development after months of support, suggesting weakening bullish momentum in the New Zealand dollar. The breakdown comes amid broader risk-off sentiment and persistent strength in the US dollar. Traders should monitor whether the pair can sustain trading below 0.5914, as a failure to do so could invalidate the bearish signal. A confirmed close below this level would strengthen the bearish case, potentially accelerating losses toward the 0.5903 support and possibly extending to the 0.5850 psychological level if July's low gives way.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar has gained broad strength across major pairs following stronger-than-expected economic data that highlighted the resilience of the American economy. The positive data releases have significantly reduced market expectations for an early Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders now pricing in only a 15% probability of easing at the September meeting, down from 40% last week. Key economic indicators exceeded forecasts, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy adjustments. The dollar index (DXY) climbed 0.5% to 104.20, approaching recent highs. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD fell 0.4% to 1.0810, while GBP/USD dropped 0.6% to 1.3320. The shift in rate expectations has widened yield differentials in favor of the dollar, attracting capital flows. Markets now await Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data, which could further solidify the Fed's hawkish positioning if employment remains robust.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has pushed higher, trading near 1.4400 levels as the Canadian dollar faces mounting pressure from impending US tariff threats. The looming August 1 deadline for potential trade restrictions has sparked risk-off sentiment, driving investors away from the commodity-linked loonie. Market participants are pricing in a 25% probability of new tariffs on Canadian exports, which could significantly impact Canada's trade-dependent economy. The Bank of Canada's recent dovish stance, maintaining its overnight rate at 4.25% while signaling potential future cuts, has further weakened CAD positioning. Technical indicators show USD/CAD breaking above the 1.4350 resistance level, with momentum indicators suggesting continued upside potential. The next major resistance sits at 1.4450, coinciding with January highs. Traders should monitor upcoming Canadian GDP data and any developments in US-Canada trade negotiations, as these could trigger volatile price swings in the pair ahead of the critical deadline.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
European forex markets displayed a cautious tone during Wednesday's morning session as traders positioned ahead of major risk events. The euro and pound traded in tight ranges against the dollar, with EUR/USD hovering near 1.0825 and GBP/USD around 1.3150. Market participants are exercising restraint ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, where the central bank is expected to maintain rates but could signal future policy direction. Additionally, major technology earnings from the 'Magnificent 7' companies are set to influence risk sentiment and potentially impact safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. European economic data remained light, allowing traders to focus on the upcoming US events. The subdued volatility reflects typical pre-event positioning, with implied volatility measures suggesting potential breakouts once the Fed announcement and earnings reports are digested. Traders should prepare for increased volatility in major pairs following these key events.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar strengthened across major pairs as futures rose ahead of a packed economic calendar featuring the Federal Reserve decision, Q2 GDP data, and earnings from major technology companies. The dollar index climbed 0.2% to 104.50 as traders positioned defensively before the high-impact events. Markets are particularly focused on the Fed's policy statement for clues about September rate cut prospects, with futures pricing in a 68% probability of easing. Q2 GDP estimates point to 2.8% annualized growth, which could reinforce dollar strength if met. The Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement adds another layer of complexity to market dynamics. Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD underperformed, while safe-haven flows benefited JPY and CHF marginally. The confluence of events suggests potential volatility spikes across major pairs, with traders advised to monitor key technical levels for breakout opportunities following the announcements.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
US mortgage applications declined 3.8% for the week ending July 25, reversing the previous week's 0.8% gain, as the 30-year mortgage rate remained elevated at 6.83%. The Market Index dropped to 245.7 from 255.5, with both purchase and refinance components showing weakness. The Purchase Index fell to 155.6 from 165.1, while the Refinance Index slipped to 739.3 from 747.5. High mortgage rates continue to pressure housing market activity, reflecting the Federal Reserve's sustained restrictive monetary policy stance. While this data rarely moves forex markets directly, persistent housing weakness could influence broader US economic sentiment and potentially impact USD positioning. The inverse correlation between mortgage applications and rates remains intact, suggesting continued housing market challenges until rates meaningfully decline.
USD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD declined 0.4% to 0.6540 after Australia's Q2 CPI data came in softer than expected, significantly increasing the odds of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from 3.6% previously, missing the 3.8% forecast, while trimmed mean CPI decelerated to 3.9% from 4.0%. The disappointing inflation figures have shifted market pricing, with traders now assigning a 55% probability to a November RBA rate cut, up from 30% before the data release. The Australian dollar's weakness was compounded by broad US dollar strength ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD breaking below the 0.6550 support level, opening the path toward 0.6500 psychological support. The diverging monetary policy outlook between the RBA and Fed could pressure the pair further, especially if US data continues to show economic resilience.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD faces mounting pressure to break below 1.1500 as growth divergence between the Eurozone and US intensifies, coupled with evolving Federal Reserve policy expectations. The pair has weakened amid stronger US economic data contrasting with sluggish European growth indicators. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming Fed communications for hints about the pace of future rate adjustments. Technical analysis suggests the 1.1500 level represents a critical support zone, with a breach potentially accelerating declines toward 1.1400. The dollar's broad strength is also evident in USD/CAD and against Nordic currencies (NOK/SEK), reinforcing the greenback's dominant position. Traders should watch for any shifts in growth differentials or central bank rhetoric that could alter the current bearish EUR/USD trajectory. Near-term resistance sits at 1.1580, while extended support lies at 1.1450.
EURUSD
USDCAD
USDNOK
USDSEK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has pulled back from its recent test of July highs, showing signs of exhaustion in the dollar's rally against the yen. The pair failed to sustain momentum above key resistance levels, prompting profit-taking and a modest retreat. Technical indicators suggest the upward momentum has temporarily stalled, with the pair struggling to maintain gains above critical resistance zones. The pullback reflects a combination of technical factors and cautious positioning ahead of upcoming economic data releases. Immediate support has formed at previous resistance levels, while the July highs remain the key upside target. Traders are monitoring both US economic indicators and Bank of Japan policy signals for directional cues. The near-term outlook depends on whether bulls can gather strength for another attempt at breaking July peaks or if the correction deepens toward stronger support levels.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD gained 0.15% to 1.0835 in early European trading as France's finance minister confirmed a framework trade deal with the US, describing it as the "best possible compromise." The agreement helped ease immediate concerns about potential tariff escalations that could have severely impacted European exports. While wine and spirits remain subject to ongoing negotiations for exemptions, the deal removes the threat of broader punitive measures. Market participants view this development as moderately positive for the euro, though concerns persist about the long-term impact on European economic growth. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing resistance at 1.0850, with support established at 1.0800. The pair's near-term direction will likely depend on upcoming ECB policy signals and US economic data releases. Traders should monitor any finalization of the trade terms, as unfavorable details could reverse current gains.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD has come under pressure following a significant decline in Australian inflation data, strengthening the case for Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. The softer-than-expected inflation figures have shifted market expectations toward a more dovish RBA stance, weighing on the Australian dollar. The currency pair faces additional headwinds from broad USD strength and concerns about global growth prospects. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD testing key support levels, with further declines possible if inflation continues to moderate. The ASX 200 has shown mixed reactions, balancing between rate cut optimism and currency weakness concerns. Traders are now pricing in increased probability of RBA easing in coming months, which could cap any AUD recovery attempts. Near-term resistance emerges at recent highs, while extended support lies at multi-month lows as markets reassess Australia's monetary policy trajectory.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Gold prices (XAU/USD) are experiencing limited upside momentum as emerging clarity on US trade policies reduces safe-haven demand. Recent US-EU trade agreements have eased tariff concerns, dampening gold's appeal as a hedge against trade uncertainty. The precious metal currently trades near $2,015 per ounce, showing minimal movement as investors await further developments. MCX gold futures reflect similar restraint, with traders monitoring Donald Trump's evolving tariff stance for directional cues. Technical indicators suggest consolidation within the $2,000-2,030 range, with immediate resistance at $2,025 and support at $2,005. The reduced trade tensions have strengthened risk appetite, potentially limiting gold's near-term gains. Traders should watch for any escalation in geopolitical tensions or shifts in Federal Reserve policy that could reignite safe-haven flows into gold.
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD faces downward pressure following mixed Australian inflation data released during Wednesday's Asian session. The Australian CPI showed softer-than-expected readings, weighing on the Aussie dollar as markets reassess Reserve Bank of Australia rate expectations. The currency pair currently trades near 0.6450, down 0.2% on the day. Adding to market uncertainty, a significant earthquake struck the Pacific region, though immediate economic impacts remain unclear. China's fiscal policy developments are also in focus, with potential stimulus measures offering mixed signals for the commodity-linked Australian dollar. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD testing support at 0.6440, with resistance at 0.6480. The confluence of domestic inflation concerns, regional seismic activity, and China's economic outlook creates a cautious trading environment. Traders should monitor upcoming Chinese PMI data and any RBA commentary for clearer directional signals.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD has declined below critical technical levels, trading near 0.6520 as sellers push the pair beneath the 100 and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart. These key MAs, clustered between 0.6528 and 0.6540, now act as resistance, signaling a shift in near-term momentum. The bearish tone intensifies as price action remains confined within the established downward channel, with recent movements respecting this technical formation. Traders are monitoring whether the pair can reclaim the MA resistance zone, which would be necessary to neutralize the bearish outlook. Immediate support lies at the channel bottom near 0.6500, while a break below could accelerate losses toward 0.6480. The technical setup suggests sellers maintain control as long as prices stay below the 0.6540 resistance cluster, with the channel structure providing a clear framework for short-term trading opportunities.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Volatile forex markets present both opportunities and significant risks for traders navigating rapid price swings. Key preparation involves mastering position sizing, with experts recommending reduced leverage during high volatility periods to protect capital. Essential strategies include setting wider stop-losses to avoid premature exits while maintaining strict risk-reward ratios of at least 1:2. Traders should monitor volatility indicators like ATR (Average True Range) and implied volatility from options markets to gauge potential price movements. During volatile conditions, focusing on major pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY typically offers better liquidity and tighter spreads compared to exotic pairs. Risk management tools such as guaranteed stops and partial position closing become crucial when markets experience sharp reversals. Successful volatile market trading requires emotional discipline, pre-defined exit strategies, and avoiding overtrading during periods of extreme price action.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
