GBP/USD is trading cautiously around 1.2650 as markets await Wednesday's crucial US Consumer Price Index data, which could reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations. Economists forecast November CPI to show 2.7% year-over-year inflation, up from 2.6% in October, while core CPI is expected to remain sticky at 3.3%. The debate over whether the Fed might tolerate inflation closer to 3% rather than the traditional 2% target has intensified, potentially affecting dollar strength. Recent Fed officials' comments suggest growing acceptance of higher inflation levels, which could limit further rate cuts in 2025. For GBP/USD, immediate resistance sits at 1.2700, with support found at 1.2600. A CPI reading above consensus could strengthen the dollar and push the pair toward 1.2550, while a softer print might allow cable to test 1.2750. Traders should monitor both the headline and core figures for directional cues.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD has edged 0.2% higher to 0.5730 after New Zealand Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, growing 0.6% quarter-over-quarter versus 0.4% expected. Despite the positive growth data, the kiwi's gains remain capped as markets question whether the economic rebound can be sustained amid aggressive RBNZ rate cuts. The central bank has already reduced rates by 125 basis points this cycle, with another 50bp cut priced for February. Technical resistance at 0.5750 continues to cap advances, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Support holds at 0.5680, last week's low. The GDP beat marks New Zealand's exit from technical recession, but elevated household debt and cooling housing market conditions suggest the recovery remains fragile. Traders remain cautious on NZD upside potential given the RBNZ's dovish stance and global growth concerns weighing on commodity currencies.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD has declined 0.6% to 0.6280 as risk-off sentiment grips markets ahead of crucial US inflation data. The Australian dollar faces dual pressure from sliding equity markets, with S&P 500 futures down 1.2%, and rising safe-haven demand boosting USD and JPY. Iron ore prices dropping 2.5% to $102/ton further undermines AUD support, reflecting concerns about Chinese demand. Technical analysis shows the pair breaking below the 0.6300 psychological support, opening the path toward 0.6250 (December low). Resistance now stands at 0.6320 (broken support turned resistance). Markets await US CPI data due later today, with expectations for a 0.3% monthly increase. A higher-than-expected reading could accelerate AUD/USD losses toward 0.6200, while a soft print might provide temporary relief. The RBA's relatively hawkish stance offers limited support amid prevailing risk-off conditions.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD pairs face heightened uncertainty as today's US CPI report will be incomplete due to government shutdown, potentially showing only November price levels rather than December data. The limited dataset reduces reliability for traders analyzing monthly inflation trends, with markets expecting moderation despite tariff pressures on core goods being offset by seasonal discounts. DXY index trades near 107.50 ahead of the release, with EUR/USD holding above 1.0200 support. The compromised data quality may limit sustained dollar moves, though initial volatility is likely across major pairs. Technical levels show USD/JPY resistance at 157.00 and GBP/USD support at 1.2650. The incomplete nature of the report complicates Fed policy assessments, potentially reducing the data's typical market impact. Traders should prepare for whipsaw movements in USD pairs but expect any directional moves to be questioned given the data limitations.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar index declined 0.2% following President Trump's announcement of a $1,776 payment to over one million active-duty service members before Christmas. This unexpected fiscal stimulus, totaling approximately $1.8 billion, adds to inflationary pressures already concerning Fed policymakers. The move comes amid heightened market sensitivity to government spending, with traders viewing additional stimulus as potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD gained 25 pips to 1.0475, while USD/JPY retreated to 152.80. The stimulus announcement reinforces market expectations of persistent inflation, supporting the Fed's cautious stance on monetary easing. Technical indicators show USD index testing support at 106.50, with further weakness possible if fiscal expansion concerns intensify. Traders are monitoring additional stimulus measures that could further weaken dollar sentiment heading into year-end.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY remains pinned at the 155.67 resistance level after rallying from yesterday's support test at 154.33. The pair has gained 0.4% (62 pips) from the Asian session lows, driven by renewed dollar strength and risk-on sentiment. Bulls are attempting to establish a foothold above the critical 155.675 supply zone, which has capped advances multiple times in recent sessions. The upward momentum built on solid support between 154.33-154.472, tested both yesterday and during early Asian trading. Technical indicators suggest mounting bullish pressure, though a clear break above 155.675 is essential for continuation toward 156.00. Traders are closely monitoring whether buyers can sustain momentum above this key level or if sellers will defend the resistance zone. A failure to break higher could see the pair retreat to test the 154.33 swing floor again.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USDCAD has broken above the crucial 100-hour moving average resistance, marking a potential bullish reversal after sustained downward pressure since November 26. The pair had tested this moving average level on five separate occasions, with sellers defending it each time and maintaining the bearish bias. Today's decisive break above this technical barrier signals a character shift in market dynamics, suggesting buyers are gaining control. The successful breach comes after weeks of defensive positioning by dip buyers who were repeatedly pushed lower. Technical traders are now watching for the pair to hold above the 100-hour MA on any pullbacks, which would confirm the breakout's validity. The next resistance targets include recent swing highs, while the broken MA should now act as support. This development could attract momentum traders and trigger further upside if the level holds, potentially extending gains toward the 200-hour moving average.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is finding support as futures rise for the first time in four trading sessions, coinciding with a rebound in oil prices from 4-year lows. WTI crude has bounced 2.3% from recent depths near $67.50, helping stabilize risk sentiment across markets. The recovery in oil prices is easing concerns about global growth weakness that had pressured risk assets. Dollar index futures have gained 0.2% in early trading, with the greenback benefiting from improved market sentiment and reduced safe-haven flows. The correlation between oil prices and broader market sentiment remains strong, with energy sector recovery lifting equity futures and supporting commodity-linked currencies. Traders are monitoring whether oil's bounce can sustain above the $70 psychological level, which could further support risk appetite. The improved tone suggests potential for continued dollar strength if economic data remains supportive.
DXY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD and WTI crude oil are presenting notable trading opportunities as market dynamics evolve. The pound-dollar pair is navigating critical technical levels while oil prices respond to global supply-demand factors. GBP/USD faces pressure from diverging monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, with traders closely monitoring UK economic data for further direction. The US Dollar Index's recent movements are influencing major pairs, creating volatility in cable trading. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil futures are reacting to inventory data and global demand concerns, potentially impacting commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Technical analysis suggests key support and resistance zones are being tested in both markets. Traders should watch for breakouts or rejections at these levels, which could trigger significant moves. The correlation between oil prices and certain forex pairs adds another layer of complexity to current market conditions.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is facing renewed selling pressure as European Central Bank messaging risks put the euro back on defensive footing. Market participants are increasingly concerned about potential dovish signals from ECB officials, which could undermine the euro's recent stability. The central bank's communication strategy has become a focal point for traders, with any hints of prolonged accommodative policy likely to weigh on the common currency. Economic growth concerns in the eurozone are compounding pressure, as traders balance ECB policy expectations against Federal Reserve positioning. The pair is testing key support levels, with technical indicators suggesting vulnerability to further downside if ECB rhetoric disappoints hawks. Near-term resistance has formed at recent highs, while support zones are being closely watched for potential breakdown signals. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB member speeches and economic data releases for catalysts that could accelerate euro weakness or trigger a relief rally.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has slumped 0.6% to 1.2680, breaking below the 1.2700 support level following disappointing UK inflation data. November CPI came in at 2.3% year-over-year, missing expectations of 2.4% and down from October's 2.5%. Core CPI also disappointed at 3.2% versus 3.3% expected, reinforcing the disinflationary trend. The weaker inflation figures reduce pressure on the Bank of England to maintain restrictive policy, with markets now pricing in a higher probability of rate cuts in early 2025. Technical analysis shows the pair trading below the crucial 1.3350 resistance, with bearish momentum accelerating after the CPI miss. Immediate support lies at 1.2650, while resistance at 1.2730 needs to be reclaimed for any bullish reversal. Tomorrow's BoE rate decision will be pivotal, with dovish guidance likely to extend sterling's losses toward the 1.2600 psychological level.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD traded flat near 1.0500 as Eurozone's November final CPI came in at 2.1% year-over-year, slightly below the preliminary 2.2% reading. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.4%, matching October's level and maintaining pressure on the European Central Bank. Germany's persistent inflation concerns continue to complicate ECB policy decisions, forcing policymakers to maintain their cautious stance despite broader economic weakness. Q3 wage data released alongside CPI figures suggests labor cost pressures remain elevated across the region. The steady core inflation reading reinforces market expectations that the ECB will pause rate cuts in December, with traders pricing in only a 25% probability of easing. Technical resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.0550, while support holds at 1.0470. The pair's near-term direction hinges on this week's ECB meeting and any signals about 2025 policy trajectory.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index maintains its soft trend, with broad-based weakness continuing across major currency pairs. EUR/USD is benefiting from the dollar's decline, as traders reassess Federal Reserve rate expectations amid mixed economic signals. The DXY's inability to sustain recent gains reflects shifting market sentiment and questions about US economic resilience. Technical analysis shows the dollar index struggling below key resistance levels, suggesting the path of least resistance remains lower. Currency traders are positioning for potential further dollar weakness, with safe-haven demand diminishing as risk appetite improves. The persistent softness contradicts earlier expectations of dollar strength, forcing market participants to recalibrate positions. Support levels on the Dollar Index are being tested, and a break below could accelerate selling pressure. This environment favors dollar shorts across major pairs, particularly against currencies with supportive fundamentals or technical setups.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has accelerated its bullish momentum, rising 0.8% to test 1.3450 resistance as technical indicators flash strong buy signals. The pair has broken above key moving averages and previous resistance levels, with momentum oscillators showing overbought conditions but maintaining upward bias. Dollar weakness across the board has amplified sterling's gains, with the DXY index falling to three-week lows near 106.50. Technical analysis points to immediate resistance at 1.3500, followed by the psychological 1.3600 level. Support has formed at 1.3380 (previous resistance turned support) and 1.3320 (50-day moving average). Trading volumes have increased significantly, suggesting strong conviction behind the move. Risk-on sentiment in global markets and expectations of diverging central bank policies between the Bank of England and Federal Reserve continue to underpin sterling strength. A daily close above 1.3500 could trigger additional buying toward 1.36.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Crude oil prices experienced sharp declines with WTI falling 2.5% to $68.50, triggering a squeeze on long positions and weighing on commodity-linked currencies. The Canadian dollar weakened 0.4% against the US dollar, with USD/CAD rising to 1.4350, while AUD/USD dropped 0.3% to 0.6280. Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions in oil markets, but momentum remains bearish with next support at $67.00. The selloff accelerated after disappointing Chinese economic data raised concerns about global demand outlook. Gold remained relatively stable near $2,650, providing some support to risk sentiment. Oil's decline has increased pressure on CAD and AUD, both heavily correlated with energy prices. Near-term resistance for WTI sits at $70.50, while a break below $67 could accelerate declines toward $65. Traders are monitoring OPEC+ developments and US inventory data for potential catalysts.
USDCAD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar has come under pressure following disappointing November employment data, with major USD pairs showing weakness across the board. Non-farm payrolls rose by only 64k in November, significantly below expectations, while October's figure was revised sharply lower to show a decline of 105k jobs. The three-month average job growth has cooled dramatically to just 22k, indicating persistent labor market softness. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.6%, reinforcing concerns about economic momentum. CIBC analysts suggest this deteriorating employment picture could prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy stance and potentially shift toward earlier rate cuts in 2025. For USD pairs, this development represents a significant bearish catalyst, with EURUSD likely to test resistance above 1.0900 and GBPUSD eyeing the 1.2800 level. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed communications for any shifts in policy guidance.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index has declined to near three-month lows around 106.20, pressured by softer-than-expected labor market data that has increased uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. Recent employment indicators showed job openings falling more than anticipated, while wage growth moderated, suggesting cooling labor market conditions. This data has fueled speculation that the Fed might adopt a more dovish stance in upcoming meetings, with markets now pricing in a 65% probability of a rate cut by March 2025. EUR/USD has benefited from dollar weakness, climbing toward 1.0580 and approaching 12-week highs ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy decision. Technical indicators suggest the dollar remains vulnerable, with the DXY testing support at 106.00. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward 105.50, while any recovery faces resistance at 106.80.
EURUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD is trading with a bearish bias near 1.4350 as markets anticipate President Trump's executive order to fast-track cannabis reclassification, potentially benefiting Canadian cannabis companies listed on US exchanges. The move would formally recognize cannabis's medical value under federal law for the first time, marking a significant policy shift that could strengthen the Canadian dollar through increased cross-border cannabis sector investment flows. Canadian cannabis stocks have rallied in pre-market trading, with major producers seeing gains of 5-8%. The development adds to existing CAD support from stable oil prices near $71/barrel. Technical indicators show USD/CAD facing immediate resistance at 1.4380 (50-day moving average), with support established at 1.4320. A break below support could accelerate the pair's decline toward 1.4280, while any disappointment in the executive order details might see the pair recover toward 1.4400.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
NZD/USD is poised for upward momentum following New Zealand's consumer confidence index jumping to 96.5 in Q4 from 90.9 in Q3, marking a significant improvement in economic sentiment. The 5.6-point increase represents the highest confidence level in recent quarters, signaling robust consumer spending prospects that could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Strong consumer confidence typically translates to increased retail spending and economic growth, potentially delaying any rate cuts or supporting further tightening. The kiwi dollar faces immediate resistance at 0.5750, with support established at 0.5680. Market participants are reassessing RBNZ rate expectations, with the improved data reducing dovish bets for 2025. This positive sentiment shift strengthens NZD against major counterparts, particularly USD, as traders position for potential hawkish RBNZ commentary in upcoming meetings.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD is trading near 0.6630, consolidating within a well-defined range between 0.6400-0.6700 as traders await clearer directional signals. The pair successfully defended crucial support at 0.6617 and the 0.66247-0.6635 swing area, maintaining a modestly bullish short-term bias. This defense prevented what could have been a failed breakout pattern, keeping buyers in control for now. The persistent two-way price action reflects ongoing market uncertainty and lack of conviction from either bulls or bears. Technical indicators suggest the pair remains trapped in this volatile pattern, with immediate resistance at the 0.6700 range high. A decisive break above this level could trigger momentum buying toward 0.6750, while failure to hold above the 0.6617 support zone would likely accelerate corrective downside toward 0.6500. Traders should monitor these key levels closely as a breakout in either direction could establish the next medium-term trend.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
