Robinhood has expanded its European product offering to include 10x leveraged perpetual futures contracts on EUR/USD, gold, oil, and select ETFs, marking a significant step in the platform's push into the EU retail trading market. The move raises questions about the regulatory distinction between perpetual futures and contracts for difference (CFDs), as both products offer leveraged exposure without expiration dates. For EUR/USD traders, the introduction of regulated perpetual contracts on a major platform like Robinhood could increase retail participation and liquidity in the pair. The 10x leverage cap aligns with ESMA's existing restrictions on retail CFD trading for major forex pairs, suggesting regulatory compliance under current EU frameworks. This development signals growing competition in the European retail forex brokerage space, potentially pressuring established CFD brokers on fees and user experience. Traders should note that while the product structure may differ technically from traditional CFDs, the risk profile and leverage exposure remain comparable, and standard risk management practices should apply.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar traded mixed against major pairs during Monday's session as sharp declines in crude oil failed to trigger a broader risk-off move across asset classes. Crude oil futures settled at $82.61, posting a significant decline, yet US equities showed resilience with the Dow closing higher, the S&P 500 finishing flat, and the Nasdaq edging modestly lower. The US Treasury conducted major auctions, selling $69 billion in 2-year notes and $70 billion in 5-year notes at high yields of 4.408% for the 5-year, reflecting continued elevated rate expectations. Geopolitical risks intensified as reports emerged of a potential limited US ground operation in Iran, with President Trump stating he has 'plenty of time' on Iran while emphasizing that negotiations must move quickly or not happen at all. The divergence between falling oil prices and a relatively stable dollar suggests markets are weighing competing forces of geopolitical risk premiums against softening commodity demand signals. Traders should monitor further developments on Iran tensions and upcoming Treasury supply for near-term USD direction.
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
US equity indices came under significant pressure as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 declined, with the S&P 500 breaking below a key trendline support level during Monday's session. The selloff was driven primarily by profit-taking in the AI and semiconductor sectors, which were among the market's weakest performers as investors reduced risk exposure ahead of a critical week of corporate earnings reports. The technology-heavy NASDAQ bore the brunt of the selling pressure, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across financial markets. This equity weakness has implications for USD-correlated pairs, as declining risk appetite typically supports safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, potentially pressuring USD/JPY lower while supporting CHF flows. Traders should monitor upcoming earnings results from major tech companies, which could either stabilize sentiment or accelerate the risk-off move. The S&P 500's trendline break is a notable technical development that may trigger further systematic selling if follow-through occurs in upcoming sessions. Near-term forex positioning should account for elevated volatility tied to earnings-driven equity moves.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD is trading modestly higher on Monday after an early bearish attempt failed to gain traction below key moving averages. The pair initially opened on the defensive, slipping beneath the rising 100-hour moving average, but sellers were unable to sustain downside pressure as the 200-hour moving average at 1.4064 provided firm support. The subsequent rebound has pushed the pair back into positive territory for the session, though upside momentum remains limited with last week's highs acting as a clear resistance ceiling. The price action suggests a consolidation phase, with buyers defending the 1.4064 support zone while lacking conviction to break above the prior week's peak. Traders should monitor these technical boundaries closely, as a decisive break in either direction could set the tone for the remainder of the week. Near-term, the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages define the trading range, and a catalyst from upcoming economic data or central bank commentary may be needed to resolve this impasse.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar staged a strong recovery during the week ended July 24, buoyed by renewed safe-haven demand and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. A significant escalation in Middle East tensions drove investors toward the greenback as a traditional safe-haven currency, while a concurrent surge in crude oil prices intensified inflationary concerns. The spike in energy costs has reinforced market expectations that the Fed may adopt a more aggressively hawkish monetary policy stance to combat persistent price pressures. The dollar's broad-based strength was evident across major pairs, with the DXY index posting notable weekly gains. The interplay between geopolitical risk premiums and energy-driven inflation expectations has created a particularly supportive environment for the dollar. Traders should remain attentive to developments in the Middle East conflict and upcoming Fed communications, as both factors are likely to continue dictating dollar direction. Any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could reverse some of the recent gains.
USDCAD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Oil prices declined sharply during the European session as markets grew increasingly confident in a de-escalation of US-Iran tensions following reports that the US halted strikes on Iran. The risk-off unwind has broad implications across forex markets. USD/JPY faces pressure as Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi called for an exit from excessively tight fiscal policy, signaling potential shifts in Japan's economic stance that could weigh on the yen. In the eurozone, ECB policymakers delivered mixed signals, with Žigman emphasizing data dependency for the September rate decision while Kazimir insisted at least one more rate hike would be needed, creating uncertainty for EUR/USD positioning. Traders are also eyeing big tech earnings this week on Wall Street, which could drive broader risk sentiment and dollar flows. Germany's economic outlook remains a key factor for euro direction. The geopolitical premium unwinding from oil markets is reducing safe-haven demand, potentially pressuring CHF and JPY while supporting risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and CAD. Traders should monitor further US-Iran developments for sudden sentiment shifts.
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCAD
AUDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
A dramatic geopolitical shift is reshaping forex markets on Monday as the United States and Iran agreed to halt military strikes after five months of conflict, sending WTI crude oil prices sharply below $64 per barrel. The de-escalation has triggered a significant risk-on move across global markets, lifting equities and risk-sensitive currencies while undermining the US dollar's safe-haven premium. The collapse in crude prices also eases inflationary pressures, potentially reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to maintain an aggressively hawkish stance — a notable reversal from last week's rate hike expectations. Traders are now recalibrating positions ahead of key central bank decisions scheduled for this week, which will be critical in determining the next directional move for major currency pairs. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar face mixed signals, as lower oil prices typically weigh on CAD despite the broader risk-positive environment. Near-term, market focus will center on whether the ceasefire holds and how central banks respond to the rapidly shifting macroeconomic backdrop.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar opened lower to start the new week as renewed hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire deal triggered a broad risk-on sentiment shift across global markets. The pattern mirrors mid-to-late June price action, when a similar memorandum of understanding led to comparable market dynamics. Oil prices gapped down on easing geopolitical supply concerns, while equities and precious metals pushed higher alongside rising bond yields — all classic hallmarks of dollar weakness in a risk-on environment. The greenback is losing ground against major counterparts as traders reduce safe-haven positioning. This déjà vu scenario raises questions about sustainability, as the June precedent saw initial optimism eventually moderate. Traders should monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations closely, as any breakdown in talks could rapidly reverse the current dollar weakness. Near-term, the DXY faces downside pressure with risk appetite favoring commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD, while safe havens such as JPY and CHF may see reduced demand. The key risk remains whether this ceasefire momentum holds or fades as it did following the initial June agreement.
EURUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
A packed week of central bank decisions and tier-one economic data releases is set to drive significant volatility across major forex pairs. The Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday takes center stage, with markets closely watching for any shifts in the rate outlook that could move USD pairs. The Bank of England follows on Thursday with its policy decision and Monetary Policy Report, creating potential for sharp GBP moves. The Bank of Japan decision adds JPY volatility risk. On the data front, US GDP and PCE inflation readings will be critical for shaping Fed rate expectations, while Eurozone CPI will influence ECB policy bets. Additional releases include German Ifo expectations, US Durable Goods, ADP Employment Change, Australian CPI, and US trade balance data. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY as these overlapping events unfold. Risk management will be essential given the density of market-moving catalysts compressed into a single trading week.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
EURGBP
EURJPY
GBPJPY
USDTRY
USDSEK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faced mixed pressures this week as a confluence of factors rattled global markets, with Wall Street equities sliding on surging oil prices, tech earnings volatility, escalating tariff concerns, and heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions. Rising crude oil prices, driven by supply disruption fears tied to the Middle East conflict, bolstered commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while weighing on oil-importing nations' currencies like JPY. The tariff escalation narrative continued to cloud the global trade outlook, fueling risk-off sentiment that typically supports safe-haven flows into CHF and JPY against higher-beta currencies like AUD and NZD. Tech sector earnings disappointments added to equity market weakness, reducing overall risk appetite. USD/JPY came under pressure as traders sought safety, while USD/CAD faced headwinds from oil-driven CAD strength. Traders should monitor crude oil price developments and any geopolitical escalation for further directional cues. Key support and resistance levels across major pairs remain sensitive to incoming tariff-related headlines and energy market volatility in the sessions ahead.
USDJPY
USDCAD
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is entering a potentially volatile period as earnings season hits full stride next week, with several of the market's largest companies set to report quarterly results. Major corporate earnings can significantly influence USD pairs through their impact on equity market sentiment, risk appetite, and expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Strong earnings could bolster the dollar by reinforcing confidence in the US economy and supporting higher-for-longer rate expectations, while disappointing results may weigh on risk sentiment and create mixed signals for currency traders. The S&P 500's trajectory during earnings week often correlates with USD strength or weakness, particularly against safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. Traders should monitor EUR/USD and USD/JPY for potential breakout moves as earnings data filters through to broader macro sentiment. Key support for the DXY dollar index remains closely watched, with corporate guidance potentially shifting expectations for GDP growth and Fed policy direction. Position sizing and risk management will be critical as headline-driven volatility could spike across major forex pairs during the reporting period.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD has posted a net gain on the week despite experiencing significant volatility, with the pair bouncing sharply off the key psychological support level at 1.4000. The pair printed a weekly low of 1.4003 on Monday, narrowly holding above Friday's low and the critical round-number support, which attracted strong buying interest. The subsequent recovery pushed USD/CAD back above the falling 100-hour moving average, signaling a shift in short-term momentum. By Tuesday, bullish pressure intensified as the pair initially stalled near the 200-hour moving average before buyers successfully drove price above this key technical barrier, confirming stronger upside conviction. The rollercoaster price action highlights the importance of the 1.4000 level as a significant demand zone for USD/CAD traders. Near-term support is established at 1.4003 (weekly low) and the 100-hour moving average, while the 200-hour moving average now serves as a potential support-turned-resistance level. Traders should monitor whether the pair can sustain momentum above the 200-hour MA for continued bullish follow-through.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Global markets are trading in a subdued tone as a confluence of bearish factors dampens risk appetite, lending support to the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. A recent spike in crude oil prices has reignited inflation concerns, fueling expectations that central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, may pursue additional interest rate hikes to contain price pressures. Simultaneously, elevated valuations in the technology sector have triggered profit-taking, adding to the risk-off sentiment across equity and currency markets. The combination of higher energy costs and tighter monetary policy expectations is pressuring commodity-linked currencies such as AUD/USD and USD/CAD, while strengthening the dollar against major counterparts including EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Traders should monitor upcoming CPI data and Fed commentary for further clarity on the rate trajectory. Near-term, the DXY dollar index is likely to find support from hawkish rate expectations, while risk-sensitive pairs may face continued downward pressure. Oil-exporting currency pairs like USD/CAD could see mixed dynamics as higher crude prices offset broader USD strength.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Market pricing for interest rate hikes by year-end shows the Reserve Bank of New Zealand leading with 57 basis points of expected tightening, followed by the Federal Reserve at 42 bps and the European Central Bank at 41 bps. The Bank of England is priced for 37 bps, while the Reserve Bank of Australia sits at 28 bps. The Bank of Japan trails at 25 bps, with the Bank of Canada at 20 bps and the Swiss National Bank at just 15 bps. Despite a relatively quiet week with no major data releases or central bank events, these expectations remained largely stable from the prior week. The NZD continues to command the highest rate differential expectations, potentially supporting NZD crosses. The narrow spread between Fed and ECB expectations (just 1 bp) suggests EUR/USD may remain range-bound in the near term. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data releases that could shift these expectations, particularly for pairs like NZD/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD where rate differentials are key drivers.
NZDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Market pricing for interest rate hikes by year-end shows the Reserve Bank of New Zealand leading with 57 basis points of expected tightening, followed by the Federal Reserve at 42 bps and the European Central Bank at 41 bps. The Bank of England is priced for 37 bps, while the Reserve Bank of Australia sits at 28 bps. The Bank of Japan trails at 25 bps, with the Bank of Canada at 20 bps and the Swiss National Bank at just 15 bps. Despite a relatively quiet week with no major data releases or central bank events, these expectations remained largely stable from the prior week. The NZD continues to command the highest rate differential expectations, potentially supporting NZD crosses. The narrow spread between Fed and ECB expectations (just 1 bp) suggests EUR/USD may remain range-bound in the near term. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data releases that could shift these expectations, particularly for pairs like NZD/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD where rate differentials are key drivers.
NZDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Oil prices retreated modestly during the European session on Friday, pulling back from significant weekly gains of approximately 9-11% across major benchmarks. The easing in crude prices triggered a corresponding decline in bond yields from their session highs, providing temporary relief to risk-sensitive currencies. Despite the intraday pullback, oil remains on track for substantial weekly gains, which have been a dominant theme driving broader market dynamics including forex positioning. The correlation between falling oil prices and declining bond yields suggests reduced inflation expectations in the near term, which could weigh on USD strength if sustained. Currency pairs with commodity exposure, particularly USD/CAD and AUD/USD, are likely to remain sensitive to further oil price fluctuations. Markets appear to be taking a breather heading into the weekend, with traders likely to reassess positioning ahead of next week's calendar. The pullback represents consolidation rather than a trend reversal, and traders should watch for Monday's open for directional cues across major pairs.
USDCAD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is receiving strong bullish support after UK July flash PMI data significantly beat expectations across all sectors. The services PMI surged to 51.8, well above the 49.4 consensus and the prior reading of 48.8, marking a decisive return to expansion territory. Manufacturing PMI also impressed at 52.8 versus 52.0 expected, while the composite PMI jumped to 52.1 from 49.3, smashing the 49.7 forecast. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, noted that UK businesses reported stronger activity in July, pointing to a faster pace of economic growth at the start of Q3. The broad-based improvement suggests the UK economy is regaining momentum after a soft patch, which could complicate the Bank of England's rate-cutting calculus if inflation remains sticky. Traders should monitor whether this strength sustains into August data. Near-term, the data provides a solid fundamental floor for sterling, with potential upside pressure on GBP/USD and GBP/EUR crosses.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
A new market analysis from JustMarkets highlights how currency markets respond more aggressively to the gap between actual CPI data and market expectations rather than the headline inflation figure itself. The research underscores that surprise deviations in Consumer Price Index readings are the primary catalyst for sharp forex movements, as traders rapidly reprice interest rate expectations when actual data diverges from consensus forecasts. For instance, a higher-than-expected CPI print in the US typically strengthens the dollar as markets price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, impacting pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Conversely, softer-than-expected inflation data can trigger rapid dollar selling. This dynamic applies across all major currencies, with the magnitude of the forex reaction proportional to the size of the CPI surprise. Traders are advised to focus on the deviation from consensus rather than absolute CPI levels when positioning around inflation releases. Understanding this relationship is critical for managing risk during high-impact data events across all major currency pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is gaining upward momentum after Eurozone flash PMIs for July delivered across-the-board beats, signaling the first rise in business activity in four months. The composite PMI climbed to 51.9 versus the 50.3 consensus and prior reading, while services hit a 5-month high of 51.6 against 49.8 expected, and manufacturing reached a 3-month high of 52.0 versus 51.5 forecast. The data reflects a meaningful rebound in demand conditions across both sectors, suggesting the Eurozone economy is building positive momentum entering Q3. However, the ECB is expected to remain primarily focused on inflation data when calibrating monetary policy, which may temper the euro's gains. Markets may also partially overlook the PMI strength given the prevailing focus on US-Iran geopolitical developments. Technically, the strong data provides fundamental support for EUR/USD, though traders should watch for resistance at key psychological levels and consider positioning ahead of US flash PMI releases later in the session.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is finding support as Germany's composite PMI climbed back into expansion territory at 51.2 in July, beating the 49.8 consensus and ending a three-month contraction spell. The manufacturing sector led the recovery with a PMI of 52.2, significantly above the 50.5 expected and prior 50.3, while services improved to 49.6 from 48.6, though remaining in contraction. Phil Smith of S&P Global noted the German economy made a positive start to Q3, with manufacturing production driving the turnaround following disruptions from earlier geopolitical tensions. The manufacturing outperformance is particularly notable for Germany's export-oriented economy, suggesting improved global demand conditions may be filtering through. While the services sector remains a relative weak spot, the upward trajectory is encouraging. For EUR/USD traders, the German data reinforces the broader Eurozone recovery narrative. However, the ECB's primary focus on inflation rather than activity data means rate expectations may not shift materially on this release alone.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
