Supreme Court blocks Trump from removing Lisa Cook from the Federal ReserveTrump says he will "take appropriate action immediately" on CookSMCI offices raided in Taiwan on chip smuggling probeThe US strategic petroleum reserve falls to the lowest level since 1983The US freight market has suddenly gone into high gearMarkets:Gold down $72 to $4014US 10-year yields flat at 4.37%WTI crude oil up $1.31 to $70.54S&P 500 up 1.3%Nasdaq up 2.0%GBP leads, JPY lagsThe yen hit a 40-year low on Monday,...
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices have recovered to near session highs at $71.09, climbing back above the 100-hour moving average at $70.80 after last week's sharp selloff. The rally comes amid reports that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, raising concerns about diminished supply buffers. This development has direct implications for CAD-correlated pairs, as Canada's economy remains heavily tied to energy exports. From a technical standpoint, the reclaim of the 100-hour moving average is a constructive signal, though traders remain cautious given a similar false breakout on June 22 that quickly reversed to the downside. Near-term resistance sits at $71.09 (session high), with a break above potentially targeting $71.50. Support is anchored at the 100-hour moving average near $70.80, and a failure to hold could expose $70.00. For USD/CAD traders, sustained crude oil strength would favor CAD appreciation and potential downside in the pair, while a rejection at current levels could reinforce recent USD/CAD upside momentum.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar extended its gains through the week ended June 26, buoyed by rising expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Despite falling oil prices and easing inflation fears, the greenback maintained upward momentum as markets repriced the Fed's tightening trajectory higher. The divergence between declining commodity prices and a stronger dollar highlights the market's focus on the Fed's hawkish stance over disinflationary signals from the energy sector. The Dollar Index (DXY) posted a solid weekly advance, pressuring major counterparts including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Rate futures now imply a higher probability of at least one additional 25-basis-point hike in the coming meetings. For forex traders, the strengthening dollar creates headwinds for risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD, while safe-haven flows into the greenback could further weigh on EUR and GBP. Key data releases in the coming week will be critical in confirming or challenging the current hawkish repricing.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD and the DAX index are presenting notable trade opportunities as markets navigate shifting dynamics around the US Dollar Index, crude oil prices, and broader risk sentiment. The British pound continues to find directional cues from US dollar movements, with traders closely monitoring economic data releases and Federal Reserve policy expectations for further clarity. Crude oil price fluctuations are adding an additional layer of complexity, influencing risk appetite and commodity-linked currency flows. For GBP/USD, key technical levels remain in focus as the pair attempts to establish a clear trend, with traders watching for breakouts above near-term resistance or potential pullbacks toward established support zones. The DAX, meanwhile, reflects broader European equity sentiment, which indirectly impacts EUR and GBP crosses through risk-on and risk-off positioning. Market participants are advised to monitor upcoming US economic releases and central bank commentary for catalysts that could drive decisive moves. Both trades present opportunities contingent on dollar direction and prevailing market sentiment in the sessions ahead.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure as the US dollar continues to hold the upper hand against the euro. The pair has struggled to mount a meaningful recovery, with fundamental and technical factors favoring further dollar strength. Oil market dynamics, particularly movements in Brent crude futures, are adding complexity to the macro backdrop, potentially influencing risk sentiment and dollar demand as a safe-haven currency. The greenback's resilience is underpinned by relatively hawkish Federal Reserve expectations compared to a more cautious European Central Bank stance. From a technical perspective, sellers remain in control, with the pair likely encountering resistance on any corrective bounces. Key support levels are being closely watched for signs of a breakdown that could accelerate losses. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic releases and ECB commentary for catalysts that could shift the current directional bias. For now, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD appears tilted to the downside, and short-term rallies may present selling opportunities.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Euro area economic sentiment improved notably in June, with the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator rising to 95.0 from a revised 93.7, surpassing the expected 94.0. The data offers modest support for EUR/USD as it signals a stabilizing economic outlook in the bloc. Services confidence climbed to 3.2, beating the 3.0 forecast and up from a revised 2.6 in the prior month, while industrial confidence came in at -7.7, slightly weaker than the expected -7.2 but still an improvement from the revised -7.9. Notably, the survey highlighted encouraging developments on the inflation front, suggesting easing price pressures that could influence ECB policy decisions going forward. While the data is broadly positive for the euro, the improvements remain incremental and unlikely to significantly alter the ECB's cautious approach to monetary easing. EUR/USD traders should weigh this pickup in confidence against ongoing dollar strength. The improved sentiment may help establish a near-term floor for the pair, but a sustained reversal would require further evidence of economic momentum in the euro area.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD faces downward pressure following significantly weaker-than-expected UK mortgage approval data released by the Bank of England. Mortgage approvals fell to 56,205 in May, well below the 62,900 consensus forecast and sharply down from the upwardly revised 66,034 in April. Net mortgage borrowing by individuals declined to £2.9 billion from £4.4 billion in April, falling considerably below the prior six-month average of £5.1 billion and marking the lowest level since May 2025. The data signals a notable cooling in the UK housing market, which could weigh on broader economic growth expectations. Consumer credit borrowing remained stable at £1.7 billion, providing a modest offset but insufficient to change the bearish narrative. The weak housing data may influence Bank of England rate expectations, with markets potentially pricing in a more dovish stance if economic softening persists. Traders should monitor upcoming UK GDP and inflation releases for confirmation of a broader slowdown. Near-term, the data adds to headwinds for sterling, with focus on whether support levels hold amid deteriorating fundamentals.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar enters a compressed trading week with markets closing early Thursday and fully Friday ahead of Independence Day, creating conditions for heightened volatility and reduced liquidity. Geopolitical tensions have escalated over the weekend after Iran struck the commercial cargo vessel Kiku in the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting risk-off sentiment that typically supports safe-haven currencies such as USD, JPY, and CHF while pressuring risk-sensitive pairs. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, and any sustained disruption could drive crude prices higher, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like CAD while weighing on oil-importing nations' currencies. Traders should anticipate condensed data releases and thinner order books, which can amplify price swings across major pairs. Key pairs to monitor include USD/JPY and USD/CHF for safe-haven flows, as well as USD/CAD for oil-related moves. With multiple catalysts packed into four sessions, position sizing and risk management will be critical for navigating this holiday-shortened week.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY faces heightened geopolitical risk after China's Ministry of Commerce blacklisted 20 Japanese entities, including subsidiaries of Mitsubishi, Komatsu, and Fujitsu, in a dual-use export crackdown. While Beijing explicitly stated that normal bilateral trade remains unaffected, the move introduces template risk for future escalation, potentially weighing on JPY sentiment through trade-balance concerns. Japan's export exposure to China remains significant, and any expansion of the blacklist perimeter could disrupt supply chains for major Japanese industrial conglomerates. The contained nature of the announcement limits immediate volatility, but traders should monitor for retaliatory measures or further list expansions that could pressure JPY crosses. CNH pairs may also see increased sensitivity to headlines. Near-term, USD/JPY is likely to trade within existing ranges as markets digest the geopolitical implications, though risk-off flows could provide modest JPY safe-haven support if tensions escalate. Traders should watch for follow-up commentary from Japanese officials and any shifts in China-Japan diplomatic tone that could alter the risk calculus for yen-denominated assets.
USDJPY
CNHJPY
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
