Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather than hoping for a turn.The core messages is that they don't assume any improvement.Dana McNabb laid it out directly: "What we are anticipating is that as we go into this new fiscal year, the consumer is going to continue to be pressured.
Source: Finnhub
Weaker payrolls fade Fed hike bets, pressuring the Dollar; diverging ECB path and geopolitical risk premiums complicate the moves.
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY faces renewed downside pressure as Japan's largest union group Rengo confirmed that annual wage negotiations resulted in a 5.01% average pay increase, marking the third consecutive year above the 5% threshold. While the final figure was revised down from the preliminary estimate of 5.26%, the sustained strength of wage growth reinforces the Bank of Japan's rationale for continued monetary policy normalization and potential further rate hikes. Persistent wage inflation above 5% supports the BoJ's view that a virtuous wage-price cycle is firmly in place, increasing the likelihood of tightening actions that would narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies. For USD/JPY traders, the confirmation of robust wage growth strengthens the fundamental case for yen appreciation. Cross-pairs including EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY may also see JPY-supportive flows. Traders should monitor upcoming BoJ communications for signals on the pace of rate adjustments, as sustained wage momentum could accelerate the timeline for the next policy move.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Market Analysis by covering: Euro US Dollar, US Dollar Japanese Yen, US Dollar Index Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
Market Analysis by covering: Euro US Dollar, US Dollar Japanese Yen, US Dollar Index Futures, US Dollar Index RT. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
The British pound faces downward pressure after the UK's final June Services PMI printed at 48.8, slightly above the 48.7 preliminary reading but well below the prior month's 49.3, confirming contraction in the dominant services sector. The Composite PMI also declined to 49.3 from 49.7 previously, signaling the sharpest loss of economic momentum since late 2022. Key findings reveal activity falling at the greatest pace in nearly three and a half years, with new orders decreasing for the fourth consecutive month. On a positive note, input cost inflation eased to its lowest level since March, which could reduce pressure on the Bank of England to maintain restrictive monetary policy. S&P Global's Tim Moore noted a "clear loss of momentum for the UK economy during Q2 2026" following a stronger start to the year. GBP/USD traders should monitor upcoming BoE commentary for signals on how policymakers interpret this deterioration. The combination of weakening growth and easing inflation creates a complex backdrop that may support expectations for earlier rate cuts, adding further headwinds for sterling.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar extended its decline following a sharply disappointing June non-farm payrolls report, with the economy adding just 57K jobs versus the 110K consensus expectation. The significant miss of 53K below forecast triggered broad-based dollar selling across major pairs, reinforcing concerns about a cooling US labor market. US equity markets closed in mixed fashion ahead of the Independence Day holiday, with a notable rotation into value stocks suggesting defensive positioning among investors. With US markets shut on July 3rd in the lead-up to July 4th celebrations, liquidity conditions are expected to remain thin, potentially amplifying any moves in forex markets driven by non-US data or risk events. The weak employment print may increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, adding further downside pressure on the greenback. Traders should monitor how EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and other dollar pairs consolidate during the holiday-thinned session, as the NFP miss could set the tone for continued dollar weakness heading into the following week.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is positioned for further upside after the June US employment report revealed a stark divergence between payroll growth and household employment metrics, highlighting growing uncertainty in the labor market picture. Non-farm payrolls came in at just 57K, significantly below the 110K forecast, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, creating a mixed but broadly dollar-negative backdrop. The widening gap between establishment and household survey data adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's policy calculus, as weaker hiring could support the case for earlier or more aggressive rate cuts. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has benefited from the dollar selloff, with traders watching for sustained breaks above recent resistance levels that could open the door to further euro appreciation. Support levels established prior to the NFP release should now act as a floor during any pullbacks. Near-term direction will likely hinge on how markets digest the employment divergence and its implications for Fed policy in the weeks ahead.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
