Yesterday we had a mixed bag CPI report from Australia:Australia May CPI undershoots on headline but core inflation tops forecasts at 3.6%The rising core rate keeps the next RBA meeting, in August, 'live'. Today's jobs report will add more data for the Bank. I'll post a preview separately.
Source: Finnhub
The NZD/USD has plunged over 200 pips during a six-day losing streak, falling from 0.5833 to a session low of 0.5630, while the AUD/USD has declined in five of the last six trading sessions, with only a marginal 1-pip gain breaking the streak. The primary driver behind this sustained sell-off is a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, which has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthened the greenback across the board. Rising rate differentials between the U.S. and both Australia and New Zealand continue to weigh heavily on the antipodean currencies. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD has broken through multiple support levels during this decline, with the pace of selling suggesting momentum remains firmly in the bears' favor. The AUD/USD is similarly positioned with sellers dominating price action. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. economic data releases and Fed commentary for signals that could either extend or reverse this trend. Near-term, a continuation of elevated U.S. yields would likely keep both pairs under pressure, with any rebounds expected to meet resistance at prior support levels.
NZDUSD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Global financial markets are staging a tentative rebound following a sharp tech-sector selloff in prior sessions that rattled investor confidence and triggered broad risk-off flows. The previous decline was fueled by growing concerns over stretched valuations in the technology sector, which spilled over into currency markets and dampened demand for risk-sensitive assets. The recovery attempt is providing modest relief to risk-correlated currencies such as the Australian dollar and the euro, while traditional safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are seeing reduced demand. However, the rebound remains fragile as underlying concerns about tech valuations and broader equity market stability persist. Currency traders are closely watching equity index performance for directional cues, as sustained equity recovery could support further gains in risk currencies. Conversely, a failure to hold early gains in equities could reignite risk aversion and push capital back toward the U.S. dollar and other safe-haven currencies. Market volatility remains elevated, warranting caution in position sizing.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar held steady as President Trump reaffirmed via Truth Social that Iran has committed to imposing no tolls, insurance costs, or other charges on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also confirmed that no money has been transferred to Iran as part of ongoing negotiations, warning that any deviation from these terms would immediately end talks. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, making any disruption a significant geopolitical risk factor for energy markets and risk-sensitive currencies. The confirmation of toll-free passage reduces near-term supply disruption fears, easing pressure on crude oil prices and supporting risk appetite across forex markets. For traders, diminished Hormuz risk could weigh on safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF while supporting commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and CAD. However, the conditional nature of Trump's statement — threatening to end negotiations if Iran's assurances prove false — introduces lingering uncertainty that traders should monitor closely in the sessions ahead.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD remains under selling pressure as broad-based US dollar strength continues to dominate price action, pushing the pair lower despite relatively stable UK domestic fundamentals. The analysis highlights that sterling's weakness is not driven by political uncertainty or deteriorating UK economic data, but rather by the greenback's relentless rally, which has seen the US Dollar Index climb to fresh 2026 highs. The Fed's hawkish stance, supported by resilient US economic data, has kept rate cut expectations subdued, bolstering dollar demand across the board. On the European side, EUR/GBP cross dynamics also factor into the pound's trajectory, with the euro exerting additional indirect pressure. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD faces key support near recent lows, with any bounce likely capped by overhead resistance as long as the dollar rally persists. Traders should watch upcoming US data releases and any shifts in Bank of England rhetoric for potential catalysts that could alter the pair's bearish trajectory in the near term.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD and crude oil are both facing headwinds as the surging US dollar continues to exert downward pressure across risk assets and commodities. The euro remains on the defensive against the greenback, with the US Dollar Index trading at fresh 2026 highs, driven by sustained expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive policy stance longer than previously anticipated. Crude oil, priced in dollars, is similarly pressured by the stronger currency, compounding existing demand-side concerns. For EUR/USD, the pair is testing key support levels with momentum indicators tilting bearish, and any break lower could open the door to further downside. Oil markets face a dual challenge from both dollar strength and uncertainty around global economic growth prospects. Traders monitoring these two correlated markets should note that a reversal in dollar strength could simultaneously lift both EUR/USD and oil prices. Near-term catalysts include US economic data releases and any shifts in OPEC+ supply guidance that could alter the current bearish dynamic.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar surged to a fresh 2026 high as a sharp technology sector sell-off triggered risk-off flows across global markets, benefiting the greenback's safe-haven appeal. The Nasdaq 100 led equity declines, dragging broader sentiment lower and pushing investors toward the dollar, US Treasuries, and other defensive assets. EUR/USD came under renewed pressure, sliding further as euro bulls found no reprieve, while USD/JPY dynamics reflected competing safe-haven flows between the dollar and yen. AUD/USD declined sharply as the risk-sensitive Australian dollar bore the brunt of deteriorating market sentiment. The tech rout appears driven by valuation concerns and profit-taking after an extended AI-driven rally, with investors reassessing growth expectations for the sector. From a technical standpoint, the US Dollar Index has broken above prior resistance, potentially opening the door for further upside if risk aversion persists. Traders should remain cautious as elevated volatility across equities could continue to spill over into forex markets, with particular attention on upcoming US macro data for directional cues.
EURUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar extended its rally across major pairs as mounting concerns over the artificial intelligence sector fueled a broad risk-off shift in global markets, channeling capital into the safe-haven greenback. The US Dollar Index futures climbed to elevated levels, reflecting persistent demand as investors rotated out of high-growth tech positions. EUR/USD pushed lower under the weight of dollar strength, with the euro struggling to find support amid a lack of positive Eurozone catalysts. AUD/USD also declined meaningfully, as the risk-correlated Australian dollar suffered from deteriorating global risk appetite and reduced commodity demand expectations. The AI jitters stem from growing skepticism about near-term monetization of large-scale AI investments, triggering a reassessment of valuations that has rippled through equity and currency markets. Technically, the dollar's breakout above key resistance levels suggests further upside potential if sentiment remains fragile. Traders should monitor equity market developments closely, as any stabilization in tech stocks could slow the dollar's advance, while continued selling pressure would likely reinforce the current bullish USD trend.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar has accelerated its strengthening trend, with USD/CHF among the pairs reflecting broad-based dollar demand as risk assets including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 break down from key support levels. The greenback's surge is coinciding with significant equity market weakness, with tech-heavy indices leading the decline amid selling pressure in semiconductor names like Micron Technology. The inverse correlation between dollar strength and equity markets is playing out clearly, as investors rotate into safe-haven dollar positions. The risk-off environment is providing additional tailwinds for the Swiss franc as a traditional safe haven, though the dollar's momentum appears to be the dominant force. Technically, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have breached critical support zones, suggesting further downside potential in equities that could sustain dollar demand. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data releases for catalysts that could either reinforce or reverse the current dollar trajectory. Key resistance and support levels across major dollar pairs may be tested as volatility remains elevated.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The USD/JPY pair remains under the spotlight as Japan faces significant challenges in resisting broad U.S. dollar strength, with analysts suggesting that meaningful currency intervention would require coordination with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent. The dollar's sustained rally, underpinned by hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations and elevated U.S. yields, has kept persistent upward pressure on USD/JPY. Japanese authorities have repeatedly signaled discomfort with excessive yen weakness, but unilateral intervention efforts have historically proven insufficient to reverse entrenched dollar trends. The analysis highlights that without explicit or implicit support from the U.S. side, Japan's capacity to meaningfully alter the trajectory of the yen remains limited. The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade at elevated levels, reinforcing the broader greenback strength narrative. Traders should watch for any diplomatic signals between Tokyo and Washington regarding currency policy, as well as shifts in U.S. yield trends. Support for the yen could emerge if the Fed signals a policy pivot, but absent such a catalyst, the path of least resistance for USD/JPY remains to the upside.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD is trading under sustained selling pressure as the latest data reveals a contraction in the UK economy, intensifying concerns about the health of Britain's growth outlook. The economic downturn adds to the headwinds facing sterling, which was already struggling against a broadly stronger U.S. dollar driven by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and rising Treasury yields. The GDP contraction raises the prospect that the Bank of England may need to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially accelerating rate cuts to support the faltering economy. This divergence in monetary policy trajectories between the Fed and the BoE is a key bearish factor for GBP/USD. From a fundamental perspective, the combination of weakening UK economic output and resilient U.S. data creates a challenging environment for cable bulls. Traders should monitor upcoming UK economic releases, including labor market and inflation data, for further evidence of deterioration that could deepen the selloff. Technical levels on the downside will be critical to watch, as a break through key support zones could accelerate losses toward multi-month lows.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD faces potential volatility as President Trump has directed the Department of Justice to investigate major oil companies for allegedly failing to pass through lower crude oil prices to consumers at the pump. Trump stated that oil prices are 'dropping like a rock' while retail gasoline prices remain elevated, accusing companies of price gouging. This intervention carries significant implications for the Canadian dollar, given Canada's heavy reliance on oil exports. If the DOJ probe leads to regulatory pressure that further depresses oil prices, the commodity-linked CAD could face additional headwinds, pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, the move signals broader political pressure to lower energy costs, which could weigh on USD through reduced inflationary expectations, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room for dovish policy adjustments. WTI crude oil has already been trending lower, and any accelerated decline could widen the differential between USD and CAD performance. Traders should monitor crude oil price action and any formal DOJ announcements for near-term directional cues on USD/CAD and other commodity-linked pairs.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The USD/JPY pair and Japan's Nikkei 225 index are commanding heightened attention as a sharp equity washout in Japanese markets shifts the narrative toward potential Bank of Japan intervention. The Nikkei 225 has experienced a significant selloff, raising fears of broader financial instability and prompting speculation that Japanese authorities may step in to stabilize both currency and equity markets. USD/JPY remains elevated as yen weakness persists, though the magnitude of the equity decline introduces the possibility of safe-haven yen buying if risk aversion deepens further. The BOJ faces a delicate balancing act: rising domestic yields and a weakening currency create pressure to intervene, yet aggressive action risks disrupting market conditions further. Traders are closely monitoring BOJ communications and Japanese Ministry of Finance rhetoric for any escalation in intervention warnings. From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY price action near key resistance levels will be critical, as a sharp equity-driven risk-off move could trigger rapid yen appreciation. Near-term volatility in both USD/JPY and the Nikkei is expected to remain elevated as market participants position for potential policy responses.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
