US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expectedUS initial jobless claims 215K vs 220K estimate.US May factory orders -1.3% vs -1.8% expectedUS officials believed Israel might have been plotting to assassinate Iran's negotiatorsZuckerberg: AI agent development over last four months hasn't accelerated as expectedBlackstone said to abandon a large data center in VirginiaBOE's Mann: In June there were more upside risks to inflationBOE Mann: Loosening of financial conditions since June will be...
USD
EUR
JPY
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD pushed higher during today's session, extending above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages for the first time since June 17, when the pair broke below these key technical levels following the more hawkish-than-expected FOMC decision. However, buyers have been unable to sustain the momentum, with some of the upside now being retraced. The initial breakout above both moving averages signaled a potential shift in short-term sentiment, as the macroeconomic backdrop has evolved since the Fed's June meeting. Traders are closely watching whether the pair can hold above these dynamic support levels on the pullback, as a failure to do so would invalidate the bullish breakout and likely trigger renewed selling pressure. The 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages now serve as immediate support, and a sustained close above both would confirm a near-term trend reversal. Conversely, a drop back below these averages could attract fresh sellers and push the pair toward recent lows. Traders should monitor upcoming US and Australian economic releases for directional cues.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The Japanese yen surged broadly as traders reacted to Japan's announcement of a new strategy aimed at combating speculative short positions in the currency. USD/JPY dropped sharply as market participants began pricing in imminent intervention by Japanese authorities, creating significant volatility across yen pairs. The move comes amid growing concern from Tokyo over the pace of yen depreciation, which has strained Japanese consumers and importers. Japan's Ministry of Finance has reportedly signaled a more aggressive and unpredictable approach to currency intervention, designed to catch short sellers off guard and inflict maximum pain on speculative positions. The threat of intervention has historically caused sharp, violent reversals in USD/JPY, and traders are now exercising extreme caution with yen short positions. Near-term resistance in USD/JPY is likely to firm up as intervention risk caps upside momentum, while support levels could be tested quickly if actual intervention materializes. Traders holding yen shorts should consider tightening stops given the elevated risk of sudden, outsized moves.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar came under broad selling pressure after sharply lower-than-expected US payrolls data on Thursday morning reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, lifting global market sentiment. The weak employment report suggested the US labor market is cooling more rapidly than anticipated, giving the Fed less urgency to tighten monetary policy further. Risk assets rallied in response, with equity markets posting gains and the dollar declining against most major counterparts. The softer jobs figures have prompted traders to reprice the Fed's rate trajectory, with interest rate futures now reflecting significantly lower odds of a rate increase at upcoming meetings. For forex traders, the data has reinforced a bearish near-term outlook for the US dollar, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD. Key support levels for the US Dollar Index are now in focus, and further deterioration in US economic data could accelerate the greenback's decline. Traders should watch for upcoming Fed commentary and additional labor market indicators for confirmation of this trend shift.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD is drawing analyst attention as market participants reassess directional bias on the pair amid evolving macroeconomic conditions. The analysis highlights a shift in outlook, suggesting traders need to remain adaptive to stay ahead of price action developments. The Canadian dollar's trajectory continues to be influenced by crude oil price fluctuations and diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. With the BoC having already embarked on its easing cycle, the interest rate differential remains a key driver for USD/CAD. Traders should monitor upcoming US employment data, particularly Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could inject significant volatility into the pair. On the technical front, key resistance and support zones will be critical in determining whether the pair extends its current trend or reverses. The shifting analyst stance underscores the importance of flexibility in positioning, as fundamental crosscurrents between US dollar strength and Canadian economic resilience create a complex trading environment for the pair.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY experienced a sharp decline during the Asia-to-Europe session handover, with the Japanese yen surging suddenly on what market participants suspect was direct intervention by Japanese authorities. Japan's Ministry of Finance declined to comment on the sudden yen spike, while Reuters sources indicated that Japan has shifted to "ambush tactics" against yen speculators, catching short-yen positions off guard and triggering a wave of position unwinding. The broader dollar remained under pressure heading into the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls report, with US futures trading cautiously as traders assessed the distribution of forecasts for the employment data. Separately, Swiss inflation data held steady, providing a stable backdrop for CHF crosses. The combination of suspected intervention and pre-NFP positioning has created heightened volatility across yen pairs. Traders should exercise caution as the NFP release could amplify or reverse current moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs print would likely compound dollar weakness, while a strong report could trigger a partial USD/JPY recovery depending on intervention risk appetite from Tokyo.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY staged a sharp intraday decline of 0.5% to trade at 161.70, falling back below the prior resistance level at 161.95 in what market participants suspect was deliberate intervention by Japanese authorities. The steep and sudden nature of the reversal bears the classic hallmarks of official FX intervention by the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance, which have previously acted to defend the yen when USD/JPY reached extreme levels. The pair had been trading near multi-decade highs, intensifying pressure on Japanese policymakers to act. This suspected intervention comes at a sensitive time, with the US Non-Farm Payrolls report due Friday, which could amplify volatility in the pair. A strong NFP print would likely reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates for longer, potentially pushing USD/JPY back toward recent highs. Key levels to watch include support at 160.80 and resistance at 162.00. Traders should exercise heightened caution given the elevated intervention risk, as further official action remains possible if the yen weakens beyond tolerated thresholds.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Swiss Consumer Price Index data for June came in line with expectations at 0.5% year-over-year, ticking down marginally from the prior month's 0.6% reading. Core CPI remained unchanged at 0.3% year-over-year, indicating subdued underlying price pressures in the Swiss economy. The monthly CPI figure was flat compared to May, offering no surprises to markets. The data reinforces the Swiss National Bank's accommodative stance, as inflation remains well below the 2% target and near historic lows. With both headline and core inflation holding steady, the SNB faces limited pressure to tighten monetary policy, which could weigh on the Swiss franc over time. Analysts note that broadening inflation pressures may eventually materialize, but the current data provides no evidence of acceleration. For USD/CHF and EUR/CHF traders, the unchanged inflation picture suggests the franc is unlikely to gain significant support from domestic fundamentals in the near term. Key levels to watch on USD/CHF include recent range boundaries, as the pair may consolidate amid the neutral data backdrop.
USDCHF
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CHF is maintaining a bullish technical posture as a wedge pattern on the charts keeps upside momentum in focus heading into a pivotal trading session. The pair's price action has been consolidating within a bullish wedge formation, a pattern that typically resolves with an upward breakout, suggesting further gains for the US dollar against the Swiss franc. The technical setup is supported by the broader fundamental backdrop, as the Federal Reserve's comparatively hawkish stance contrasts with the Swiss National Bank's recent rate cuts, widening the interest rate differential in favor of the dollar. Market participants are closely watching Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls data, which could serve as the catalyst for a decisive breakout from the wedge pattern. A stronger-than-expected employment report would likely bolster the dollar and push USD/CHF higher, while a miss could invalidate the bullish setup. The US Dollar Index futures are also being monitored as a correlated indicator. Traders should watch for a clean breakout above the upper wedge boundary for confirmation of the bullish scenario.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is entering a critical phase as markets prepare for the Non-Farm Payrolls report, the key event closing out a holiday-shortened trading week ahead of US Independence Day. With the US bond market closing early on Thursday and both bond and equity markets shut on Friday, liquidity conditions are expected to thin significantly, potentially amplifying price swings across major USD pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. The compressed trading schedule means market participants are front-loading positioning ahead of the jobs data, which will serve as a major input for Federal Reserve policy expectations. A stronger-than-expected payrolls print could reinforce hawkish Fed pricing and support the dollar, while a miss could accelerate dollar selling into the long weekend. Traders should be mindful of wider spreads and reduced depth as the week winds down. The NFP release remains the dominant catalyst, with potential to set the tone for USD direction heading into the following week when full market participation resumes.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
