AUD/USD in focus as NAB business confidence slides to -13 on oil, rate hikes

Australian business confidence slid to -13 in the latest NAB survey, released on October 13, 2026. The source reports no AUD/USD price move, pip change or technical levels. Oil is the main pressure point: volatility linked to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the broader Iran conflict is lifting business costs and denting sentiment. The source says any further energy spike would likely push confidence lower still. Higher funding costs from rate hikes are also weighing on firms. The survey highlights the Reserve Bank of Australia's dilemma. RBA minutes released the same day show policymakers are concerned about domestic capacity pressures and rising business inflation expectations, even as businesses sour under tighter financial conditions. For AUD traders, this creates competing forces. Weakening business sentiment points to softer domestic momentum, while the RBA's inflation concerns suggest policy is unlikely to ease. Oil price developments tied to Middle East tensions are a key variable to monitor for both business conditions and the RBA policy outlook.