The U.S. dollar is slipping against both the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar as risk assets rebound following developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. USD/JPY is trending lower while AUD/USD gains ground, reflecting a broad reassessment of geopolitical risk premiums that had previously supported the greenback. News surrounding the Hormuz strait — a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments — appears to have eased tensions, prompting a shift away from safe-haven flows into the dollar and yen and toward risk-sensitive assets. Crude oil prices are reacting to the Hormuz developments, with WTI futures adjusting as supply disruption fears diminish. The U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading lower, confirming broad-based dollar weakness across multiple pairs. For USD/JPY, traders should watch for continued downside pressure if risk sentiment holds, while AUD/USD could extend gains if commodity prices stabilize. The interplay between geopolitical headlines and central bank expectations will remain the key driver for these pairs in the sessions ahead.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Traders are focusing on a select group of high-conviction setups heading into the new trading week, with USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and EUR/JPY identified as the primary pairs to watch. The week's outlook is shaped by a combination of shifting risk sentiment, evolving central bank expectations, and key economic data releases on the calendar. USD/JPY remains sensitive to movements in U.S. Treasury yields and Bank of Japan policy signals, while AUD/USD continues to track global risk appetite and commodity market dynamics. USD/CAD is likely to be influenced by oil price fluctuations and any divergence between Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada rate expectations. EUR/JPY, as a cross pair, offers exposure to both European economic resilience and Japanese monetary policy developments. Traders should pay close attention to upcoming U.S. economic releases and any geopolitical headlines that could trigger volatility. Position sizing and risk management will be essential given the potential for sharp moves across these pairs in the current environment.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical risk premiums surged across forex markets as reports emerged that President Trump is exploring options to seize control of Iran's Kharg Island oil hub, which handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports. The development, compounded by a drone strike on Dubai, has injected significant volatility into oil-correlated currency pairs. USD/CAD came under pressure as crude oil prices spiked on supply disruption fears, while traditional safe-haven currencies JPY and CHF strengthened against the dollar. USD/JPY slipped as risk-off sentiment dominated Asian and early European sessions, with traders seeking shelter in the yen. The Middle East escalation threatens to push Brent crude above key resistance levels, which would further benefit commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while weighing on oil-importing nations' currencies like INR and TRY. Traders should monitor USD/CAD support near recent lows and USD/JPY for continued safe-haven flows. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty suggests sustained volatility, with risk sentiment likely to remain fragile pending further developments on the Iran situation and broader Middle East stability.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDTRY
USDINR
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is gaining momentum against major counterparts as surging oil prices approaching the $100 per barrel mark tighten global financial conditions and complicate central bank easing cycles. Rising energy costs are stoking inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve, ECB, and other major central banks to reconsider the timing and pace of anticipated rate cuts. The stronger dollar is weighing heavily on commodity-linked currencies such as AUD, CAD, and NZD, while risk-sensitive assets face broad selling pressure. Higher oil prices typically benefit the USD through increased demand for dollar-denominated commodities and widening yield differentials as markets price out rate reductions. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are under downward pressure as European economies, which are net energy importers, face deteriorating terms of trade. USD/CAD presents a mixed picture, as higher oil supports the Canadian economy but USD strength remains dominant. Traders should monitor upcoming inflation data closely, as persistent energy-driven price pressures could push rate cut expectations further into 2026, sustaining dollar strength and risk-off positioning across forex markets.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar posted broad gains on Friday as escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions triggered a flight to safety, boosting demand for the greenback against major counterparts. EUR/USD came under pressure as rising oil prices threatened to worsen the Eurozone's energy import costs, while USD/JPY advanced as Japan's energy-dependent economy faced similar headwinds. The surge in crude oil prices, driven by conflict-related supply disruption fears, is reigniting inflation concerns globally. Markets are now recalibrating expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with traders pricing in a longer hold on interest rates as elevated energy costs threaten to keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target. The relative insulation of the US economy from oil price shocks, given its domestic production capacity, is providing additional support to the dollar. Near-term, traders should monitor developments in the Middle East alongside upcoming US inflation data for further directional cues. Key support for EUR/USD lies at recent lows, while USD/JPY resistance may be tested if risk aversion intensifies further.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD faced significant volatility as a confluence of weak economic data from both the US and Canada rattled markets. US Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7%, sharply below the 1.4% estimate and prior reading, while US PCE inflation eased slightly to 2.8% y/y versus the 2.9% expected. JOLTs job openings surprised to the upside at 6.946M against a 6.700M forecast, offering mixed signals on labor market health. In Canada, February employment plunged by 83.9K jobs versus expectations of a 10K gain, marking a severe deterioration in the labor market. Geopolitical risk intensified as the Pentagon deployed additional warships to the Middle East, with markets losing confidence in a near-term Iran resolution. Trump's approval slipped to 44%, adding political uncertainty. University of Michigan sentiment edged up to 55.5 versus 55.0 expected, providing marginal consumer confidence support. A federal judge quashed subpoenas targeting the Fed and Chair Powell, reducing institutional risk. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments and upcoming Fed commentary for directional cues on the greenback and loonie.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US housing market faces renewed headwinds as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surged to 6.41%, marking the highest level since September 2025. This sharp reversal follows a brief dip below 6.00% to 5.98% during the week of February 23, representing a 43-basis-point increase in just a few weeks. The spike in mortgage rates directly correlates with rising yields on the US 10-year Treasury note, which has been climbing on expectations of persistent inflation and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Higher yields tend to support the US dollar against major counterparts, as they attract foreign capital inflows seeking better returns. For forex traders, the rising rate environment reinforces dollar strength, particularly against low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The housing sector slowdown could temper consumer spending over time, but in the near term, elevated yields remain a tailwind for USD positioning. Traders should monitor upcoming inflation data and Fed commentary for directional cues on rate expectations.
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar remains broadly stable as confirmed diplomatic talks between the United States and Cuba signal a potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Western Hemisphere. Mexico's President revealed her role in brokering the discussions, with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirming that conversations are aimed at resolving bilateral differences through dialogue. While the Trump administration has not issued a formal statement, reports indicate talks are underway, and Trump posted an article referencing the negotiations. The diplomatic development carries limited direct forex impact but contributes to a marginally constructive risk sentiment environment, which could weigh modestly on traditional safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF while supporting risk-sensitive pairs. For USD/MXN, the Mexican peso could see incremental support given Mexico's mediating role, reinforcing its diplomatic standing. Traders should monitor developments for any implications on US sanctions policy or trade flows with Cuba, which could influence broader USD sentiment. Near-term, the news is unlikely to shift major pair dynamics significantly but adds to the geopolitical backdrop informing risk appetite.
USDMXN
USDCHF
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures rallied to session highs as crude oil prices dropped below the critical $100 per barrel level, fueled by optimism surrounding India's diplomatic efforts to secure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The easing in oil prices provided relief to risk assets and shifted forex market dynamics, with the US dollar softening against commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies. Lower oil prices reduce imported inflation pressures for energy-dependent economies, potentially giving central banks more flexibility on monetary policy. For oil-exporting nations' currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, the decline in crude represents a headwind, while energy importers like Japan and the Eurozone stand to benefit from reduced input costs. The USD/CAD pair may see upward pressure as falling oil weighs on the loonie, while EUR/USD could find support from improved Eurozone growth prospects. Traders should watch for confirmation of Hormuz transit agreements and OPEC+ responses. Key resistance for crude oil sits near $102, with support at $96 if bearish momentum continues.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Global market sentiment improved on Friday as crude oil prices eased, allowing equity markets to trim earlier losses and shifting risk appetite across forex markets. The decline in energy costs provided relief to currencies of oil-importing nations, with the euro and Japanese yen both finding a degree of support against the US dollar. Lower oil prices reduce the pass-through effect on consumer inflation, a key consideration for central banks including the ECB and Bank of Japan as they calibrate monetary policy responses. The risk-on mood saw traders rotate out of safe-haven positions in the US dollar and Swiss franc, while commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars showed mixed performance depending on their net energy export status. EUR/USD stabilized above key near-term support, while USD/JPY pulled back slightly from recent highs. Traders should remain cautious, as oil price volatility could resume on any escalation in geopolitical tensions. Near-term direction will depend on energy market developments and upcoming central bank communications.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure as elevated crude oil prices strengthen the US dollar while simultaneously amplifying inflation risks across the Eurozone. The pair has been trading with a downward bias as higher energy costs disproportionately impact the European economy, which relies heavily on imported oil and natural gas. Rising oil prices support the dollar through multiple channels: they increase demand for USD-denominated commodities, attract capital to US energy equities, and bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. For the Eurozone, surging energy costs threaten to reignite inflation just as the ECB has been navigating a delicate balance between growth support and price stability. USD/JPY has also been influenced by the energy dynamic, with the yen weakening on Japan's substantial energy import bill. Technically, EUR/USD faces resistance near the 1.0900 handle, with support forming at recent lows. Traders should monitor Brent crude price action and ECB rhetoric for near-term directional cues on the pair.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar rallied sharply heading into the weekend on March 13, 2026, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid escalating US-Iran tensions after President Trump vowed to "hit them very hard" in the coming week. The cautious market mood was compounded by disappointing UK GDP data, which printed flat at 0.0% month-over-month versus the 0.2% expected, weighing on GBP. European inflation data came in mixed, with Spain's final February CPI confirmed at 2.3% year-over-year while France's was revised lower to 0.9% from 1.0% preliminary. Despite rising rate hike expectations for other central banks, the dollar's strength persisted, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and shifting interest rate expectations favoring USD. FX option expiries at the 10am New York cut added to volatility across major pairs. Traders should monitor weekend developments on Iran and position cautiously, as gap risk remains elevated for Monday's open across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and other dollar pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY surged to its highest level since July 2024, with the pair extending gains amid a widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan. The rally has intensified speculation that the Bank of Japan may intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's persistent depreciation. Japanese authorities have previously stepped in at similar levels, with verbal warnings typically preceding direct market intervention. The yen's weakness is being compounded by elevated crude oil prices, which worsen Japan's trade deficit as the nation imports the vast majority of its energy needs. Rising US Treasury yields continue to attract capital away from Japanese assets, further pressuring the yen. Traders are closely watching for any shift in BoJ rhetoric or signals of coordinated intervention with the Ministry of Finance. Key technical levels include psychological resistance at the round number above, while support may emerge near the 150.00 handle if intervention materializes. Position sizing and risk management are critical at these levels given the elevated probability of sudden, sharp reversals driven by policy action.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
A comprehensive FX outlook published on March 13, 2026, warns that currency markets should brace for a prolonged period of dislocation as the US dollar continues its aggressive advance. The analysis highlights the USD Index futures pushing higher, driven by sticky inflation expectations and elevated geopolitical risk premiums from Middle East tensions and energy market disruptions. EUR/USD remains under significant pressure as European economic fundamentals struggle to compete with US yield differentials. USD/JPY has climbed sharply, raising concerns about Japanese intervention as the pair tests multi-year highs. Crude Oil WTI futures are also contributing to FX volatility, with energy supply disruptions adding inflationary pressures globally. The report suggests that the current dollar strength is not a short-term blip but rather reflects a structural repricing of global monetary policy expectations. Traders are advised to manage risk carefully, as cross-asset correlations are tightening and traditional hedging strategies may underperform in this environment.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Spain's final February CPI confirmed at +2.3% year-over-year, matching preliminary estimates and the prior reading, while HICP held at +2.5% y/y as expected. Core CPI edged higher to +2.7% from the previous +2.6%, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures persist in the eurozone's fourth-largest economy. However, the data has had minimal impact on EUR/USD price action, as market attention remains firmly fixed on the escalating US-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to keep oil prices elevated and drive risk sentiment. The geopolitical premium is currently the dominant force across forex markets. Notably, markets are now pricing in two ECB rate hikes by year-end, a hawkish shift that could provide underlying support for the euro in the medium term. Traders should monitor oil price developments closely, as prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could further stoke inflation across the eurozone, potentially reinforcing the case for additional ECB tightening and influencing EUR/USD directional bias.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY continues to trade at elevated levels on March 13, 2026, with the pair reaching multi-year highs amid the broader dollar rally. However, speculative positioning data reveals a growing majority sell bias as traders anticipate potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Renewed intervention talk has emerged after officials signaled discomfort with the pace of yen depreciation, echoing similar rhetoric that preceded past Bank of Japan market operations. The pair's strength has been driven by widening US-Japan yield differentials, but risk assets including the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are showing signs of strain, which could trigger safe-haven yen demand. Gold's continued strength at elevated levels also suggests underlying market anxiety. Key resistance remains at recent highs, while support could materialize quickly if intervention materializes. Traders should exercise caution with USD/JPY longs, as the risk-reward profile is increasingly skewed to the downside given the rising probability of coordinated yen-buying operations by Japanese monetary authorities.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD faces a pivotal session as traders await the monthly UK GDP report for January, with consensus expecting a 0.2% expansion. However, the data release is unlikely to shift Bank of England policy expectations or significantly move the pair, as market attention remains firmly locked on the escalating US-Iran conflict and its impact on surging oil prices. The geopolitical crisis has fueled broad safe-haven demand, strengthening the US dollar across the board and pressuring risk-sensitive currencies. Rising crude prices add an additional layer of complexity, threatening to reignite inflationary pressures globally and potentially delaying central bank easing cycles. For GBP/USD traders, the UK GDP print could provide a short-term catalyst if it surprises significantly to the upside or downside, but the dominant driver remains geopolitical risk sentiment. Traders should monitor oil price developments closely, as further escalation could trigger additional USD strength and push cable lower toward key support levels.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD has come under intense selling pressure on March 13, 2026, as a significant repricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations drives the US dollar higher against the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. The pair has been dumped aggressively as markets recalibrate the Fed's policy path, with traders now pricing in a more hawkish stance due to persistent US inflation readings. The Australian dollar, which typically benefits from global risk appetite and commodity demand, has been hit by a double blow of dollar strength and deteriorating risk sentiment across global markets. China-linked concerns continue to weigh on AUD as a proxy for Asian economic health. Technical levels suggest the pair may find interim support at recent lows, but the bearish momentum remains strong with no clear signs of stabilization. Traders should watch for upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia communications and any shifts in Chinese economic data for potential relief catalysts. Until Fed repricing stabilizes, the path of least resistance for AUD/USD remains to the downside.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Global currency markets were shaken on March 13, 2026, as the US dollar continued its aggressive rally, fueled by safe-haven demand and sticky inflation expectations. USD/JPY surged to fresh highs as the pair benefited from the broad dollar bid, though the move was complicated by a sharp spike in Japanese Government Bond yields, raising questions about potential Bank of Japan policy adjustments. Energy supply disruptions added another layer of complexity, with rising crude oil prices feeding into global inflationary pressures and altering central bank calculus across major economies. The dollar's strength has been broad-based, impacting both G10 and emerging market currencies as traders seek safety amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy expectations. JGB yield volatility in particular has introduced significant uncertainty for JPY crosses. Market participants are closely monitoring whether the BOJ will intervene directly in currency markets or adjust yield curve control parameters. Near-term, the confluence of geopolitical risk, energy disruption, and monetary policy divergence suggests continued dollar dominance across FX markets.
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD has pulled back sharply, declining over 1% from a multi-year peak as the US dollar surged on intensifying safe-haven demand driven by the US-Iran geopolitical crisis. Despite the retreat, bulls are finding renewed hope in key technical support levels and the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish policy stance, which continues to underpin the Australian dollar. The RBA's reluctance to cut rates amid persistent domestic inflation provides a fundamental floor for the pair, contrasting with markets progressively pricing out Federal Reserve rate cuts due to the inflationary impact of rising oil prices. Technical analysis suggests the pullback may find support at established levels that previously served as resistance during the pair's rally to multi-year highs. Traders should watch for a potential consolidation phase as the pair digests its recent gains. A bounce from technical support could signal renewed upside momentum, while a break below would expose deeper corrective targets and confirm a broader trend reversal.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
