EUR/USD faced downward pressure following Spain's January services PMI release, which came in at 53.5, significantly below the expected 56.6 and down from December's 57.1. The disappointing data marks the weakest new business growth since June last year, attributed to sluggish demand conditions across Spain's service sector. While the reading remains above the 50-level indicating expansion, the sharp deceleration raises concerns about eurozone economic momentum. The miss adds to existing euro weakness, with traders now closely monitoring upcoming eurozone-wide PMI data for confirmation of broader slowdown. Despite the headline disappointment, employment growth remained positive and business confidence improved, providing some support. Technical levels show EUR/USD testing support near 1.0780, with resistance at 1.0820. Further eurozone data weakness could accelerate euro selling, while any positive surprises might offer relief rallies.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD has pulled back 0.4% to 1.2580 after reaching recent highs near 1.2650, though the broader bullish structure remains intact. The pair's upward momentum has been supported by expectations of a more hawkish Bank of England stance amid persistent UK inflation concerns, contrasting with growing speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2024. Technical indicators suggest the pullback may be a healthy correction within the uptrend, with the 50-day moving average at 1.2520 providing key support. Strong resistance emerged at 1.2650, coinciding with December 2023 highs. Bulls remain in control above 1.2500, with a break above 1.2650 potentially opening the path toward 1.2700. However, traders should monitor upcoming UK GDP data and US employment figures, which could trigger volatility and test the pair's resilience.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD has declined sharply by 0.8% to 0.6120 following New Zealand's unemployment data showing a significant rise to 4.3% from the previous 3.9%, exceeding market expectations of 4.1%. The weak labor market data reinforces expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may need to pivot toward rate cuts sooner than anticipated, undermining the kiwi dollar's appeal. The employment change also disappointed, showing only 0.4% growth versus 1.0% expected. Technical analysis shows NZD/USD breaking below the key 0.6150 support level, with further downside potential toward 0.6080 if selling pressure persists. The 200-day moving average at 0.6180 now acts as resistance. Market participants are pricing in increased odds of RBNZ rate cuts by mid-2024, which could maintain pressure on the New Zealand dollar against its major counterparts.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY surged 0.5% to trade above 156.20 during Asian trading, marking a significant resistance breach as Bank of Japan rate hike expectations moderate. Japan's Services PMI jumped to an 11-month high of 53.8, signaling robust economic expansion despite Nomura's forecast of BoJ rates reaching only 1.5% by 2027. The dollar found additional support from steady Fed rate expectations, with markets maintaining current pricing despite speculation about potential Warsh appointment. China's Services PMI improvement to a three-month high and South Korea's won strength from pension fund dollar bond considerations added regional complexity. Technical indicators show USD/JPY breaking above the 156 psychological level with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential. Immediate resistance sits at 156.50, while support has formed at 155.80. Traders should monitor upcoming BoJ communications for any hawkish surprises that could cap further yen weakness.
USDJPY
USDCNY
USDKRW
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY remains at a critical juncture as multiple factors converge to influence the pair's direction. Bank of Japan monetary policy decisions continue to be the primary driver, with markets closely watching for any shifts from the ultra-accommodative stance. Japanese authorities have intensified verbal warnings about potential intervention, particularly if rapid yen depreciation continues. Fiscal policy concerns in both countries add another layer of complexity, with US debt ceiling debates and Japan's fiscal sustainability under scrutiny. Global risk sentiment fluctuations significantly impact the pair, as JPY typically strengthens during risk-off episodes. Technical analysis suggests key resistance near 150.00, a psychologically important level that previously triggered intervention threats. Support lies around 147.50, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Traders should monitor BOJ communications, US Treasury yields, and any signs of actual intervention as these could trigger substantial volatility in USD/JPY positioning.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CNY declined 0.2% to 7.2450 following China's stronger-than-expected services PMI data for January. The Services Business Activity Index rose to 52.3 from December's 52.0, marking a three-month high and indicating robust expansion in the services sector. The improvement was driven by accelerating new orders and a notable return to growth in export-related business, suggesting strengthening domestic and international demand. This broad-based acceleration supports the yuan as China's economic recovery gains momentum beyond manufacturing. Technical indicators show USD/CNY testing support at 7.2400, with the 50-day moving average at 7.2350 providing the next key level. A sustained break below could target 7.2200. The positive PMI data reinforces expectations that China's economy is stabilizing, potentially attracting foreign capital inflows and supporting further yuan appreciation against the dollar in the near term.
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD jumped 0.8% to 0.6580 after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points, ending a two-year pause. The hawkish move caught markets off-guard, with only 30% of economists predicting a hike. The RBA cited persistent inflation concerns and tight labor market conditions as key factors driving the decision. Governor's accompanying statement suggested further tightening may be necessary if inflation remains elevated. The rate differential with the US Federal Reserve has narrowed significantly, providing strong support for the Australian dollar. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD breaking above the 0.6550 resistance level, with momentum indicators turning bullish. The next resistance lies at 0.6620 (November 2023 high), while support has formed at 0.6530. Traders are positioning for potential follow-through gains, with the pair likely to test 0.6650 if the bullish momentum continues.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The euro gained 0.2% against major currencies as German 30-year borrowing rates surged to 2.8%, marking the highest level since 2011. This sharp increase from the sub-zero rates seen during 2015-2023 reflects a dramatic shift in European bond markets and provides fundamental support for the euro. The move has left investors who purchased German bonds at negative yields facing substantial unrealized losses. Despite Germany's fiscal discipline remaining among the world's strongest, market participants are increasingly concerned about potential loosening of budget constraints. The elevated yield levels signal normalized monetary conditions and increased borrowing costs across the eurozone. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD could test resistance at 1.0950 if yields remain elevated, while support holds at 1.0880. The development strengthens the euro's appeal for carry trades and could attract further institutional flows.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/CHF is showing technical patterns suggesting a possible 5th wave development in its Elliott Wave structure. The pair has been consolidating near key technical levels as traders analyze the wave count formation. Elliott Wave theory indicates the pair may be preparing for its final impulse move within the current wave cycle, which could signal either a continuation or reversal pattern. Technical analysts are monitoring critical support at the wave 4 low and resistance at recent highs for confirmation of the 5th wave initiation. The US Dollar Index has been showing correlated movements, providing additional context for the USD/CHF technical setup. Swiss franc traders should watch for volume confirmation and momentum indicators to validate the wave count. A successful 5th wave completion could establish new directional bias for the pair in upcoming sessions.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD advanced 0.5% to 0.6485 as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its hawkish stance, suggesting additional rate hikes are likely with inflation remaining stubbornly above target. The RBA's latest minutes revealed policymakers' concerns about persistent price pressures, particularly in services and housing sectors where inflation continues running at 4.2% annually, well above the 2-3% target band. Market pricing now indicates a 75% probability of another 25 basis point hike at the March meeting. The Australian dollar found additional support from stronger-than-expected retail sales data showing 0.8% monthly growth. Technical indicators show immediate resistance at 0.6520, with a break above potentially targeting 0.6580. Support sits at 0.6450, aligned with the 50-day moving average. Traders should monitor upcoming Australian employment data and Chinese economic indicators for further directional cues.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index retreated 0.2% to 103.50 as conflicting economic signals left traders uncertain about the Federal Reserve's next policy move. While January's ISM Services PMI surprised to the upside at 55.2 versus 53.5 expected, manufacturing data continued showing contraction at 47.8. The mixed picture has pushed back expectations for the Fed's first rate cut, with markets now pricing a 60% chance of easing by June rather than May. EUR/USD gained 0.3% to 1.0780, while AUD/USD climbed 0.5% to 0.6485 on respective domestic factors. Technical analysis shows the Dollar Index testing support at the 103.20 level, with resistance at 104.00. A break below support could accelerate losses toward 102.80, while recovery above 104.00 would signal renewed dollar strength. Traders await Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls for clearer direction.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD held steady at 1.0765, defending key support at 1.0750 despite President's nomination of a known hawk to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The pair initially dipped 0.4% to test 1.0745 on the news but recovered as European economic data showed unexpected resilience. Eurozone GDP growth was revised upward to 0.4% quarterly, beating initial estimates of 0.3%. The hawkish Fed nomination increases the likelihood of maintaining higher rates for longer, potentially supporting the dollar medium-term. However, immediate market reaction was muted as traders focused on near-term technical levels. The 1.0750 support, coinciding with the 200-day moving average, proved crucial for bulls. Resistance stands at 1.0820, with a break above needed to challenge 1.0850. Failure to hold current support could see acceleration toward 1.0700.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Gold prices declined 1.2% to $2,018 per ounce, breaking below the short-term ascending trendline from January lows but maintaining position above crucial long-term support at $2,010. The precious metal faced pressure from rising real yields as US Treasury 10-year yields climbed to 4.15%, while the Dollar Index strengthened marginally. Despite the near-term weakness, gold's secular bull case remains intact, supported by central bank buying which reached record levels of 1,037 tonnes in 2023. Silver followed gold lower, dropping 1.8% to $22.45. Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions on the daily timeframe, with RSI at 32. Immediate resistance sits at $2,035, while a break below $2,010 could accelerate declines toward $1,985. Gold futures volume increased 15% during the selloff, indicating active participation in the move lower.
XAUUSD
XAGUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Natural gas futures plummeted 8.5% to $2.15 per MMBtu, reaching extreme oversold conditions that historically correlate with risk-on sentiment in broader markets. The commodity's collapse, driven by unseasonably warm weather forecasts and elevated storage levels at 3,250 Bcf, has pushed sentiment indicators to extreme buy territory with RSI at 18. This development supported risk assets, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 advancing 1.2% in pre-market trading. The energy sector weakness paradoxically boosted inflation-sensitive assets, as gold recovered from early losses to trade flat at $2,025 and silver gained 0.3% to $22.60. Lower energy costs reduce inflationary pressures, potentially allowing central banks more flexibility in policy decisions. Technical analysis shows natural gas approaching major support at $2.10, with potential for sharp reversal given extreme positioning.
XAUUSD
XAGUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Currency markets are witnessing an unusual dynamic as broad USD weakness challenges traditional February seasonal patterns. Historical data shows February typically favors dollar strength, particularly against EUR/USD (-0.3% average) and GBP/USD (-0.2% average). However, current market conditions suggest this seasonal tendency may be overwhelmed by fundamental factors pressuring the greenback. AUD/USD has already gained 1.2% month-to-date, defying its typical February decline of -0.4%. The USD/JPY pair shows particular vulnerability, trading near 149.50 with potential for further downside if risk-off sentiment persists. Technical analysis across major pairs indicates dollar weakness could accelerate, with DXY testing crucial support at 103.20. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic releases, particularly inflation data, which could either reinforce or reverse the current anti-dollar sentiment despite seasonal expectations.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CHF declined 0.4% to test critical support at 0.9100 despite a surprisingly strong US Manufacturing PMI reading of 51.2, exceeding forecasts of 49.5. The pair's weakness reflects broader dollar selling pressure that has overwhelmed positive US data. The PMI expansion, marking the first reading above 50 in six months, initially sparked a brief dollar rally before sellers regained control. Swiss franc strength stems from its safe-haven appeal amid global uncertainty and SNB's relatively hawkish stance. Technical indicators show USD/CHF breaking below its 50-day moving average at 0.9125, with next support at 0.9050. The Dollar Index (DXY) simultaneously dropped 0.3% to 103.45, confirming widespread USD weakness. Traders are positioning for potential further declines unless upcoming US data significantly beats expectations, with focus turning to this week's jobless claims and consumer confidence figures.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD jumped sharply following the Reserve Bank of Australia's unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations. The central bank delivered a hawkish surprise by lifting inflation forecasts and signaling potential further tightening through 2026, supporting the Australian dollar's strength. The RBA's commitment to combating persistent inflation contrasts with other major central banks considering pause or pivot scenarios. Asian risk sentiment improved notably, with Japanese stocks surging on tech rebounds and the KOSPI rocketing higher on banking sector gains. The People's Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9608, while Goldman Sachs highlighted gold's surge as reflecting structural demand shifts. The hawkish RBA stance suggests AUD/USD could test resistance levels near 0.6750, with support established around 0.6650 as traders position for potential further Australian rate increases.
AUDUSD
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed Friday's crucial January Non-Farm Payrolls report due to the government shutdown, creating uncertainty for USD pairs across the board. Markets are showing limited immediate reaction as politicians indicate the shutdown will end Tuesday, but traders face a gap in critical employment data that typically drives significant dollar volatility. The delayed report, along with Tuesday's postponed JOLTS data, removes two key economic indicators from this week's calendar. This disruption comes at a sensitive time for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, as employment data remains crucial for rate path assessment. Without fresh jobs data, USD pairs may experience reduced volatility and directionless trading until the reports are eventually released. Technical traders should prepare for potential gaps when the data finally arrives, as pent-up positioning could amplify market reactions.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY continues its bullish momentum with elevated volatility running above its 90-day average, signaling increased market participation and potential for larger price swings. The pair has maintained its upward technical structure, with buyers defending key support levels despite the heightened volatility environment. This increased volatility suggests growing divergence between Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policies, with the Fed's hawkish stance contrasting sharply with the BoJ's ultra-accommodative approach. Technical indicators point to sustained bullish pressure, though traders should note that volatility above historical averages often precedes significant market moves or reversals. Key resistance levels to watch include recent highs, while support has formed at previous breakout points. The elevated volatility environment offers both opportunities and risks, requiring careful position sizing and risk management as the pair navigates this high-activity phase.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index posted weekly losses despite receiving temporary support from Kevin Warsh's appointment as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Markets initially rallied on the news, viewing Warsh as a potentially hawkish choice who could maintain or accelerate the Fed's current tightening cycle. However, broader dollar weakness prevailed as traders focused on mixed economic data and global risk sentiment improvements. The appointment's limited impact suggests markets are prioritizing near-term economic fundamentals over future policy speculation. Currency pairs showed divergent reactions, with risk-sensitive pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD gaining against the greenback, while safe-haven flows kept USD/JPY relatively supported. The week's price action indicates that while leadership changes at the Fed matter, immediate economic conditions and data releases continue to drive forex markets more significantly than personnel announcements.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
