The US dollar came under broad pressure after the Treasury unveiled a larger-than-expected liquidity support buyback programme for longer-dated securities, a move markets read as an unconventional response to rising long-end yields rather than routine plumbing. Reporting from The Wall Street Journal framed Secretary Bessent's decision as a deliberate signal from a policymaker willing to intervene when the curve moves against him, raising the prospect of repeat interventions if term premium pressure resumes. For FX, the implication is negative for USD: buybacks that cap yields without addressing the underlying fiscal deficit erode the real-yield support that has underpinned the greenback, while inviting questions about Treasury independence from political pressure. DXY weakness has been most visible against EUR/USD and USD/JPY, where narrowing rate differentials amplify the move. Traders should watch the 10- and 30-year auction tails and the September 9 implementation date for confirmation. Failure of long yields to settle despite the buyback expansion would likely deepen dollar losses, whereas a stabilising long end could allow USD to retrace part of the decline.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD is trading cautiously ahead of Australia's monthly labour force report, with analyst forecasts unusually dispersed over whether June's hiring surge can be sustained. A soft employment print would validate the Reserve Bank of Australia's assessment that the labour market is gradually cooling, strengthening the case for a pause or a slower pace of tightening and likely weighing on the Australian dollar. A stronger-than-expected outcome, closer to Westpac's more optimistic forecast, would complicate that narrative and push markets to price a higher probability of additional RBA rate hikes, supporting AUD. Beyond the headline jobs number, traders should focus on the unemployment rate, the full-time versus part-time split and the participation rate, since composition often drives the RBA's reaction function more than the headline. Volatility around the release is typically concentrated in the first 15 minutes. AUD/USD direction will also depend on the broader dollar tone, which has softened on Treasury buyback headlines, and on AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY crosses where rate differentials are most sensitive to the data.
AUDUSD
AUDNZD
AUDJPY
EURAUD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Treasury confirmed it will increase the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities, with the change taking effect from September 9, 2026. The announcement lands at a time when long-dated Treasury yields have been under sustained upward pressure, with investors demanding higher compensation for fiscal, inflation and supply risks. For FX markets, the operation is a double-edged instrument: it improves secondary-market liquidity in off-the-run issues, but it also signals official discomfort with the level of long-end yields, which markets can interpret as a soft form of yield management. That interpretation tends to be dollar-negative, since it implies tolerance for higher inflation risk premia rather than fiscal consolidation. EUR/USD and USD/JPY are the primary expression channels, with USD/JPY particularly sensitive to any compression in the US 10- and 30-year yields. Traders should monitor upcoming refunding announcements, auction bid-to-cover ratios and 30-year term premium estimates. Persistent long-end weakness alongside a softer dollar would confirm a fiscal-risk premium narrative rather than a conventional rate-differential trade.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures are trading close to unchanged, leaving the dollar rangebound as traders concentrate on two dominant macro variables: the path of interest rates and crude oil prices. With no clear directional catalyst from risk assets, FX majors are consolidating within recent ranges, and intraday moves are being dictated by the long end of the Treasury curve rather than equity beta. Higher oil prices remain a structural support for commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK, while acting as a terms-of-trade headwind for energy importers including JPY and EUR, keeping USD/CAD offered and USD/JPY biased higher on any crude spike. Rate expectations remain the swing factor for the broader dollar index, with markets sensitive to any repricing of the Federal Reserve's easing path. In the absence of tier-one data, traders should expect subdued realised volatility with the risk of sharp breakouts if oil clears recent highs or long-dated yields resume their climb. Range-trading strategies are favoured until a decisive catalyst emerges.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Sterling faces a fresh inflation test as UK July CPI data shows headline price growth picking up while core inflation holds steady, keeping GBP/USD sensitive to Bank of England repricing. The acceleration stems largely from the Ofgem energy price cap adjustment effective in July, with households estimated to be paying around £221 more on average annually for energy. Services inflation, the BOE's preferred gauge of domestic price persistence, is seen easing slightly to 3.4% from 3.6% in June, driven by a smaller year-on-year increase in air fares compared with the same period last year. The divergence between a hotter headline print and cooling services inflation complicates the BOE's path, as energy-driven inflation is typically viewed as transitory while services momentum guides policy. Traders should watch GBP/USD reaction around the 1.3400-1.3500 zone, with softer services data potentially reviving rate-cut bets and pressuring the pound, while sticky core readings could offer support. EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY are likely to see correlated volatility around the release.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The European session agenda is dominated by inflation data, placing GBP/USD and EUR/USD at the centre of intraday volatility. The headline event is the UK CPI report, a fresh reading that will directly shape expectations for the Bank of England's policy stance over the final months of the year. With market pricing for further BOE easing still fluid, an upside surprise would likely lift short-dated gilt yields and support sterling, while a downside miss could accelerate cut expectations and weigh on GBP/USD and lift EUR/GBP. The Eurozone CPI report is also scheduled, but as the final estimate for July it rarely deviates materially from the flash reading and therefore tends to have limited market impact, leaving EUR/USD more responsive to cross-flows and dollar direction. Traders should expect the sharpest moves in sterling crosses in the minutes following the UK release, with GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP typically amplifying the reaction. Liquidity conditions ahead of the print may exaggerate initial spikes before positioning settles.
GBPUSD
EURUSD
EURGBP
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD fell roughly 20 pips from around 1.3900 to near 1.3880 after President Trump announced a three-day pause on the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods that were scheduled to take effect at midnight US Eastern time. Trump indicated a tentative deal has been reached, easing immediate trade-war risk premium that had been built into the Canadian dollar. The relief move was modest in scale, reflecting trader caution given the short duration of the reprieve and the absence of a finalised agreement. Trade policy remains the dominant driver for the loonie, overshadowing domestic fundamentals in the near term. Technically, USD/CAD support sits at the 1.3860-1.3880 area, with a sustained break opening scope toward 1.3800, while failed negotiations would likely trigger a swift retest of 1.3900 and beyond toward recent highs. Traders should note the risk of headline-driven gaps and widened spreads around the new deadline, and consider that CAD strength may also be capped by oil price dynamics and diverging Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD is trading with elevated two-way risk as Canadian and US negotiators prepare to meet again ahead of the midnight tariff deadline, with the pair hovering near the 1.3900 area. The resumption of talks signals that diplomatic channels remain active, offering the Canadian dollar a degree of support, but the backdrop remains one of considerable uncertainty over whether an agreement can be reached in time. The threatened tariff escalation represents a material downside risk to Canadian growth and export earnings, which would justify a higher USD/CAD if implemented. Conversely, a negotiated resolution would remove a significant risk premium from the loonie. Technically, resistance is seen at 1.3900-1.3950, with a decisive break exposing higher levels, while support rests near 1.3860 and then 1.3800. Traders should anticipate thin liquidity and headline-driven spikes into the deadline, making position sizing and stop placement critical. Oil price movements and Bank of Canada rate expectations remain secondary drivers while trade headlines dominate the CAD narrative.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD faces a dual catalyst as traders await the August 19 FOMC Minutes alongside Canadian inflation data that showed headline CPI accelerating to 3.0%, driven primarily by higher energy costs. The Minutes are expected to clarify whether the Federal Reserve is prioritising a cooling labour market, which would support rate-cut expectations and weigh on the dollar, or persistent inflation risks, which would argue for holding policy restrictive and lift USD across the board. On the Canadian side, headline CPI at 3.0% sits at the upper bound of the Bank of Canada's 1-3% target range, reducing the scope for near-term BOC easing and offering the loonie fundamental support, though energy-driven gains may be discounted as temporary. The resulting policy divergence narrative will determine USD/CAD direction. Technically, traders are monitoring the 1.3900 pivot, with resistance layered above toward recent highs and support near 1.3800-1.3860. A dovish-leaning Minutes combined with firm Canadian inflation would favour downside in USD/CAD, while hawkish Fed language could drive a sustained break higher.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
European trade delivered limited direction, with EUR/USD holding below its recent breakout level as the unresolved US-Iran standoff kept participants sidelined. Germany's August ZEW current conditions index printed at -61.1 versus -69.5 expected, a modest upside surprise that failed to generate sustained euro demand. ECB policymaker Philip Lane underlined that the inflation outlook is highly dependent on the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict, tying the euro's rate outlook directly to energy-driven price risk. Sterling was capped after UK labour market data showed further cooling in June, softening the case for a hawkish Bank of England stance and leaving GBP/USD vulnerable on rallies. Qatar's statement that an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement could open a path to broader US-Iran talks provided a mild de-escalation headline without moving spot decisively. US futures nudged lower with tech leading declines, while the bond market remained the key barometer for cross-asset direction. Traders should watch for an EUR/USD upside break confirmation, with headline risk from the Strait of Hormuz capable of triggering rapid oil-driven repricing across EUR and GBP crosses.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
EURGBP
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Sterling is trading on the back foot after the latest UK labour market report showed further evidence of cooling through June. Softer employment growth, an easing in vacancies and a continued moderation in private sector wage growth reinforce the view that the Bank of England has room to deliver further policy easing, trimming the yield support that has underpinned GBP for much of the year. Slower pay growth is particularly important for the MPC, which has repeatedly flagged wage persistence as the main obstacle to faster rate cuts. Money markets have responded by nudging up the probability of a cut at the next meeting, pulling short-dated gilt yields lower and weighing on GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Offsetting this, broader dollar weakness tied to Treasury buyback-driven liquidity support is limiting downside for cable. Technically, GBP/USD faces resistance near recent highs, with support from the 200-day moving average area; EUR/GBP is likely to grind higher if the cooling labour trend persists into the next inflation print.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
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EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Asia-Pacific trade delivered a mix of intervention risk and commodity dislocation. The Reserve Bank of India returned to the market to defend the rupee as USD/INR hovered near an all-time high, capping the pair but doing little to change the structural bias. Gold fell back below $4,400 an ounce even as ETF inflows resumed, while the diesel crack surged to a record $102 a barrel and UKMTO reported a vessel struck by a projectile exiting the Strait of Hormuz, keeping an energy risk premium in place that supports CAD and NOK. Westpac argued the dollar's structural headwinds outweigh its recent resilience and forecast higher EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while ING said the heavy tone in Treasuries has further to run as the tariff truce lapses. Analysts also warned a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this week, a downside risk for AUD/USD and NZD/USD via the China growth channel. Traders should watch Hormuz headlines, RBI fixings and the LPR decision for near-term direction.
USDINR
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
ING expects the heavy tone in US Treasuries to persist as the tariff truce lapses, a dynamic that keeps long-end yields biased higher and complicates the dollar's recovery attempts. The latest TIC data showed headline foreign holdings of Treasuries declining, with Japan, the UK and China all trimming positions. The transaction picture was more mixed: one measure showed a modest $6.8 billion net inflow in June, while ING's TIC-based read pointed to roughly $72 billion of net liquidation by foreign holders, highlighting how measure-dependent and volatile this series has become month to month. For FX, reduced foreign appetite for Treasuries is a structural negative for USD, even if higher yields offer short-term carry support. Rising term premium alongside softening demand typically pressures USD/JPY funding flows and supports EUR/USD dips. Traders should watch the 10-year yield's response to any renewed trade friction, as a disorderly yield rise tends to weigh on the dollar rather than lift it, keeping EUR/USD and USD/JPY volatility elevated into upcoming US data.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
US equity indices closed lower with the S&P 500 and Dow leading declines of near 0.50%, as selling accelerated into the afternoon session. The catalysts were twofold: rising crude oil prices, which revived inflation concerns, and higher Treasury yields, which tightened financial conditions and pressured rate-sensitive sectors. For FX markets, the risk-off tone typically supports traditional safe havens, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF often catching bids on defensive flows, while commodity-linked currencies such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD face headwinds when equity breadth deteriorates. Firmer oil prices remain a relative positive for CAD, capping USD/CAD upside. The simultaneous rise in yields and drop in stocks suggests markets are repricing the inflation path rather than the growth path, a combination that historically favors the dollar against low-yielders on carry but limits broad USD gains against the euro. Traders should monitor whether equity weakness extends into follow-through selling, as a deeper correction would likely amplify yen demand and compress AUD/JPY and other risk-sensitive crosses in the near term.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
AUDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Sandisk shares continued their advance following last week's Investor Day, where management outlined an aggressive financial framework covering FY2028 through FY2030 and emphasized the longer-term growth opportunity tied to artificial intelligence. On the product side, the company expects AI inference workloads to materially increase demand for flash storage in data centers, a structural demand thesis that investors rewarded with follow-through buying. While the story is equity-specific, it feeds the broader AI capex theme that has underpinned global risk appetite in 2026. Sustained strength in semiconductor and storage names typically supports pro-cyclical currencies, with AUD/USD, NZD/USD and KRW-linked Asian FX benefiting from technology export optimism, while safe-haven demand for JPY and CHF tends to fade. Traders should note the divergence risk: equity leadership concentrated in AI names has not consistently translated into broad dollar direction, as US yields remain the dominant FX driver. Continued tech outperformance would keep AUD/JPY and other risk-sensitive crosses supported, but a rotation out of AI capex plays could quickly reverse those flows.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
AUDJPY
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The dollar's rebound against major currencies stalled last week after a slew of US economic releases dimmed expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. With rate hike probabilities pared back, the yield support that had been driving the greenback's recovery faded, allowing EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the commodity bloc to recoup earlier losses. The market's repricing reflects softer momentum in growth and inflation-sensitive indicators, shifting focus toward whether the Fed retains an extended pause rather than delivering additional hikes. For traders, the key implication is that dollar strength now requires an upside data surprise to be sustained, leaving rallies vulnerable to reversal. EUR/USD is likely to remain supported on dips while rate differentials narrow, and USD/JPY faces two-way risk as US yields consolidate. Attention turns to upcoming US consumer-facing data, including retail sales and sentiment readings, alongside Fed commentary for confirmation of the softer policy path. A further downgrade in hike expectations would extend the dollar's corrective phase, while firmer data could quickly restore the rebound narrative.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The dollar came under pressure at the start of the new week, with AUD/USD leading gains across the majors while the greenback lagged in European trading. Sentiment was steady overall, with European indices mostly a little higher and S&P 500 futures holding near flat, allowing risk-sensitive currencies to outperform. Chinese data disappointed: July retail sales missed expectations, industrial output growth slowed and new home prices extended their declines, with the statistics bureau attributing part of the softness to extreme weather conditions. The Australian dollar's resilience despite the soft China figures underscores that dollar weakness, rather than commodity demand optimism, was the dominant driver. Geopolitically, Iran reaffirmed that talks with the United States have not yet begun, keeping a modest risk premium in energy markets. With no major US releases on Monday, positioning dominated flows, though the week features a significant test of US consumer health. Traders should watch whether AUD/USD can sustain gains without confirmation from Chinese activity data, while EUR/USD upside remains dependent on continued softening in US yields.
AUDUSD
EURUSD
USDCNH
GBPUSD
USDJPY
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The yen edged higher against the dollar, pushing USD/JPY modestly lower, even after a clear miss in Japanese GDP data underscored soft domestic momentum. The move highlights that yen direction is currently dictated by US rate expectations rather than Japanese fundamentals. Fed funds futures now imply roughly a two-thirds probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates at next month's meeting, a repricing that has trimmed the US-Japan yield differential and lent the yen support. Notably, the GDP disappointment failed to generate meaningful yen selling, suggesting the market has largely discounted weak Japanese growth data and is focused instead on the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory and the Fed's next step. Gains remain modest and contained within the recent trading range, with no evidence of a decisive downside break in USD/JPY. Traders should treat this as consolidation rather than trend reversal until the pair clears the lower boundary of its range. Upcoming US data and Fed commentary remain the primary catalysts, while yen crosses such as EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY should track the same yield-differential dynamic.
USDJPY
EURJPY
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under broad selling pressure following a sharp 0.6% decline in retail sales, driving GBP/USD to 1.3560 and EUR/USD above the 1.15 handle. Consumer sentiment deteriorated to 51.0, reinforcing concerns about slowing economic momentum and prompting traders to scale back Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Gold surged toward $4,400 per ounce as the weakening dollar and reduced hawkish Fed pricing boosted safe-haven and alternative asset demand. The combination of soft consumption data and declining sentiment suggests the Fed may hold rates steady at upcoming meetings, further undermining dollar support. GBP/USD faces immediate resistance near the 1.3600 psychological level, while EUR/USD could target 1.1550 if dollar weakness persists. Support for GBP/USD sits around 1.3500, with EUR/USD finding a floor near 1.1480. Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation and employment data for further confirmation of the economic slowdown narrative. The dovish repricing of Fed expectations may continue to weigh on the greenback in the near term.
GBPUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
