The US dollar sold off broadly after July non-farm payrolls came in at -23K, a dramatic miss against the +80K consensus, marking the first negative print in recent memory. USD/CAD was among the hardest hit as Canadian employment surged by +75.1K versus +15K expected, creating a stark divergence between the two economies. Gold surged $106 to $3,345, reflecting safe-haven demand and reduced rate hike expectations. US 10-year yields declined 2.8 bps to 4.64%, while WTI crude slipped 42 cents amid reports of progress on Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz negotiations. Fed's Barkin acknowledged a zero-to-modest gain jobs environment, reinforcing the dovish shift. The New York Fed survey showed one-year inflation expectations easing to 3.6% from 3.7%. Reports of US-Canada tariff relief discussions added further downside pressure on USD/CAD. Traders should watch for continued dollar weakness if labor market deterioration persists, with near-term focus on Fed commentary and upcoming CPI data.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar showed limited reaction following the release of the New York Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations, which revealed a modest decline in one-year inflation expectations to 3.6% from the prior 3.7%. Medium- and longer-term expectations remained stable, with three-year projections holding at 3.3% and five-year expectations unchanged at 3.0%. The survey also noted improvements in both current and expected personal financial conditions among respondents, while labor market expectations presented a mixed picture. The marginal decline in near-term inflation expectations does little to alter the Federal Reserve's current policy trajectory, as the data suggests inflation concerns remain elevated but are not accelerating. For USD pairs, the report is largely neutral, offering no compelling catalyst for directional moves. Traders should monitor upcoming CPI and PCE data for more definitive signals on the Fed's rate path. Key USD pairs remain range-bound as markets await higher-impact economic releases later in the week to establish clearer directional bias.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under significant selling pressure after an unexpected decline in July non-farm payrolls dramatically reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, sending risk assets broadly higher. The disappointing employment data suggests the US labor market is cooling more rapidly than anticipated, undermining one of the key pillars supporting the Fed's hawkish stance. Major pairs reflected the dollar weakness, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD pushing higher while USD/JPY retreated. The softening jobs report has led interest rate futures markets to sharply reprice the probability of additional tightening, with traders now favoring a prolonged pause or even earlier rate cuts. Equity markets responded positively to the prospect of a less restrictive monetary policy environment, with broad-based gains across major indices. Dollar bears now have the momentum, and further downside could materialize if upcoming inflation data corroborates the slowdown narrative. Traders should watch for follow-through selling in USD pairs and monitor Fed commentary for any shifts in forward guidance following this pivotal labor market release.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Broad market sentiment surged following the unexpected decline in US July non-farm payrolls, which dramatically reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and sent the dollar lower across the board. EUR/USD and other major pairs benefited as traders repriced the Fed's policy trajectory, with futures markets now reflecting significantly lower odds of additional tightening. The negative payrolls print of -23K versus the +80K forecast represents a meaningful deterioration in the US labor market, suggesting the cumulative impact of elevated rates may be weighing on hiring. Equity markets gained alongside risk-sensitive currencies as lower rate expectations eased financial conditions. Bond yields pulled back, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining to 4.64%. The shift in rate expectations could provide sustained tailwinds for EUR/USD if upcoming data confirms labor market softening. Traders should monitor Fed speakers in the coming week for guidance on whether the central bank views this as a transitory anomaly or the beginning of a broader employment downturn.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar faced intense selling pressure following a sharply disappointing July Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs versus the +80K consensus expectation. The data marks a significant deterioration from the prior month's +57K reading, compounded by a staggering -103K two-month net revision that slashed May's figure to +129K. Private payrolls added just 30K against the 78K forecast, underscoring broad labor market weakness. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month versus the 0.3% expected, with the year-over-year rate cooling to 3.2% against 3.5% anticipated, easing wage inflation concerns. The unemployment rate unexpectedly improved to 4.1% from 4.2%, though participation slipped to 61.4%. The weak employment and earnings data significantly bolster expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets likely repricing the September meeting as a near-certainty for easing. Traders should watch EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY for momentum continuation as dollar weakness may extend if risk sentiment deteriorates further amid recession fears.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Gold (XAU/USD) has surged 1.8% to $4,316 during the European session, maintaining strong upward momentum as the US dollar remains subdued ahead of the critical US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The precious metal continues to find support from multiple factors, including Middle East de-escalation dynamics and sustained central bank demand, with China extending its gold buying spree for a 21st consecutive month in July. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc leads among major currencies while the Canadian dollar lags, reflecting a risk-cautious market positioning. Interest rate expectations have shifted notably following this week's events, with former Fed Chair nominee Warsh's potential influence on rate policy being tempered by Trump's reminder that rate decisions rest with the full Board. Traders are closely watching the NFP data distribution, as the employment report could reshape Fed rate expectations. However, the upcoming US CPI release poses a potential risk to gold's gains, as stronger inflation data could reignite dollar strength. WTI crude oil edged down 0.4% to $76.93, adding to the mixed commodity picture heading into the jobs report.
XAUUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faces heightened volatility risk ahead of the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release, as the distribution of analyst forecasts reveals a wide range of expectations that increases the probability of a significant market surprise. When actual NFP data deviates from the consensus estimate, it creates sharp moves across USD pairs, particularly EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. The spread between the highest and lowest forecasts underscores the uncertainty surrounding the current US labor market, which remains a critical input for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce expectations for a hawkish Fed stance, boosting the dollar, while a miss to the downside would likely weigh on USD as markets price in potential rate cuts. Traders should monitor the actual release relative to both the median consensus and the distribution tails, as deviations beyond the interquartile range tend to produce the most pronounced price reactions. Key support and resistance levels across major USD pairs are likely to be tested in the immediate aftermath of the data release.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asian financial markets are under pressure as escalating Middle East tensions following a Saudi attack warning drive risk-off sentiment across the region. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7904, while traders report active intervention to support the Indian rupee against the US dollar. China's July export data provided a bright spot, beating forecasts as AI-related demand helped sustain the export engine despite fresh US tariffs, supporting the trade balance narrative. Asian equities declined broadly, with Korean markets and Japan's Nikkei weighed down by geopolitical jitters and weakness in AI-related names. In commodities, Chinese investors poured $1.2 billion into gold ETFs in the longest buying streak since March, signaling strong safe-haven demand. The ECB held rates steady, maintaining its current monetary policy stance. Crypto markets face uncertainty as the US Senate pushed the CLARITY Act vote to September. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as further Middle East escalation could strengthen safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF while pressuring risk-sensitive Asian currencies and commodity-linked pairs.
USDCNY
USDINR
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
China's July 2026 trade data came in significantly stronger than expected, with US dollar-denominated exports surging 23.0% year-over-year while imports jumped 27.5% y/y, producing a robust trade surplus of $112.5 billion. The data signals continued strength in Chinese manufacturing and global demand, which has direct implications for commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Australian dollar given Australia's deep trade ties with China. Strong Chinese imports suggest robust domestic demand for raw materials, supporting AUD/USD sentiment. The surge in both exports and imports points to a healthy global trade environment and reinforces China's position as a key driver of Asia-Pacific economic growth. Traders should monitor AUD/USD for potential upside momentum as markets digest the data. The strong import figure is also supportive for NZD/USD and may weigh on USD/CNH as yuan appreciation pressures build on the back of widening surpluses. Near-term, commodity currencies could benefit from improved risk appetite tied to China's economic resilience, though broader dollar dynamics and central bank policy divergence remain key factors.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is positioned for potential gains heading into the Asian session on Friday, August 7, as St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem signals a notable hawkish pivot in monetary policy stance. Musalem now favours earlier, gradual rate hikes over what he described as "later, larger, abrupt" adjustments, citing concerns over eroding inflation credibility following a significant Treasury selloff. This rhetorical shift could bolster USD strength across major pairs, particularly USD/CNH ahead of key Chinese trade data due during the session. The Treasury selloff that prompted Musalem's hawkish recalibration suggests rising yield expectations, which typically support the greenback. Traders should monitor China's trade balance figures closely, as weaker-than-expected exports could amplify USD/CNH upside while pressuring AUD/USD given Australia's trade exposure to China. Near-term, the combination of hawkish Fed rhetoric and potential Chinese data disappointment creates a risk-off backdrop favouring the dollar. Traders should watch for follow-through dollar demand if trade data misses consensus expectations.
USDCNH
AUDUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faces a pivotal test ahead of Friday's July Non-Farm Payrolls report, with consensus estimates pointing to a modest 80K jobs added, following June's underwhelming 57K print. Private payroll expectations sit at 78K, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%. Leading indicators paint a concerning picture for the labor market: the ADP employment report significantly missed expectations at 44K versus 65K forecast, and the ISM Services employment index contracted sharply to 47.4 from 51.2 prior. However, the ISM Manufacturing employment component provided a bright spot, rising to 52.8. Average hourly earnings are expected to remain stable at 3.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, suggesting wage pressures are contained. Average weekly hours are forecast unchanged at 34.3. A weaker-than-expected NFP print could reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, weighing heavily on the greenback. Traders should watch the unemployment rate closely, as any uptick above 4.2% could trigger significant USD selling across major pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is attempting a decisive breakout above the critical 200-day moving average at 158.02, a level that has served as significant resistance throughout the week. On Tuesday, the pair rallied toward this key technical barrier but was met with strong selling pressure, triggering a retreat to the swing support zone between 157.21 and 157.30. This support area proved its significance as buyers defended it on three separate occasions — once on Tuesday and twice on Wednesday — establishing a firm floor for the pair. The repeated tests and holds at support, combined with the renewed push toward the 200-day MA, suggest building bullish momentum. Traders should monitor whether the pair can achieve a sustained close above 158.02, as this would likely open the door for further upside. Conversely, a failure to hold above this moving average could trigger another pullback toward the 157.21–157.30 support zone. The battle between these two well-defined technical levels presents clear risk-reward setups for short-term traders.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar's cyclical strength patterns are under the spotlight as JustMarkets releases a comprehensive research report examining USD fluctuations and their cross-asset implications. The analysis focuses on how recurring USD strength and weakness cycles influence major forex pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, as well as broader CFD asset classes such as commodities and indices. The report highlights intermarket correlations, noting that periods of sustained dollar strength typically pressure commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD while supporting USD-denominated safe-haven flows. While no specific price levels or economic data points were cited in the announcement, the research underscores the importance of understanding Federal Reserve monetary policy cycles, US Treasury yield dynamics, and global risk sentiment as primary drivers of USD directionality. Traders are encouraged to monitor the DXY (US Dollar Index) for macro trend confirmation. The report serves as an educational resource for identifying parallel trading opportunities across correlated instruments during defined phases of the dollar cycle.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Asian-Pacific markets are under pressure as Japanese and South Korean equities tumble, driven by fears over AI-related spending sustainability hitting the Nikkei and KOSPI indices. The selloff carries direct implications for USD/JPY and USD/KRW as risk-off sentiment weighs on regional currencies. Australia's June trade surplus narrowed to AU$1.929 billion, a factor pressuring AUD/USD as the data suggests softening export demand. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7895, maintaining a steady hand on yuan management. On the monetary policy front, Fed Governor Daly supported the decision to hold rates steady at the July FOMC meeting, noting that the tariff impact on inflation is beginning to fade, a mildly dovish signal for USD. Reports that Trump holds frequent informal calls with Fed Chair Warsh add a layer of political uncertainty. In Japan, an LDP lawmaker's proposal for the BOJ to sell its ETF holdings to fund tax cuts could have significant implications for JPY if pursued. Fitch assessed Korea's equity volatility as posing limited near-term credit risk, offering some reassurance to KRW holders. Traders should monitor risk sentiment and central bank developments closely.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCNY
USDKRW
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is pressing toward its weekly high after yesterday's pullback found strong support in the 1.1498–1.1506 swing area, keeping the pair's bullish bias intact. Buyers successfully defended this critical support zone, with the price holding above the rising 100-hour moving average before closing higher on the session. The pair is now eyeing the 100-day moving average as the next significant resistance target, a level that could determine whether the current bullish momentum extends further. The technical structure remains constructive as long as the 1.1498–1.1506 support zone holds, with the rising 100-hour MA providing dynamic support beneath price action. A sustained break above the weekly high would open the door toward the 100-day MA and additional resistance clusters above. Traders should monitor whether buyers can maintain pressure through these overhead levels, as failure to clear the 100-day MA could trigger another corrective pullback toward the established support zone. Near-term positioning favors longs while the pair remains above the 100-hour MA.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar faced mixed signals following the July ISM Services Index release at 54.1, slightly below the 54.5 consensus but up from the prior 54.0 reading. The report delivered a complex picture for USD pairs: business activity surged to 59.1 from 55.4 and new orders jumped to 57.2 from 55.1, both signaling robust expansion. However, the employment component dropped sharply to 47.4 from 51.2, falling back into contraction territory and raising concerns about labor market softening in the services sector. Prices paid climbed to 70.3 from 67.7, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve's rate decision timeline. The S&P Global final services PMI painted a more optimistic picture at 54.6, an 8-month high. For traders, the divergence between strong activity data and weak employment creates uncertainty around Fed policy expectations. The employment decline could support rate cut expectations, potentially weighing on the dollar, while elevated prices paid may limit dovish positioning. Near-term, traders should monitor upcoming NFP data for confirmation of the employment weakness trend.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating as Iran announces it will delay the Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman as long as US threats persist. This development has implications for oil prices and oil-sensitive currency pairs including USD/CAD and USD/NOK. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes daily, making any disruption a significant concern for global energy markets. Crude oil prices have edged higher on the news, providing support to commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK, while safe-haven flows are benefiting the USD, JPY, and CHF. Despite Iran's hardline rhetoric, analysts expect the agreement to eventually proceed, suggesting the delay is a negotiating tactic rather than a permanent breakdown. Traders should monitor further developments in US-Iran relations, as any escalation could trigger sharper moves in oil prices and broader risk sentiment. Near-term, the USD is likely to maintain a bid on safe-haven demand, while commodity currencies may see mixed performance depending on oil price direction.
USDCAD
USDNOK
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD faces significant downside pressure following a sharp deterioration in China's Caixin Services PMI, which fell from 54.1 to 50.4 in July 2026, well below the expected 53.7 and marking the steepest single-month decline in the survey's recent history. The reading, now at its lowest level since September 2024, sits barely above the 50.0 threshold separating expansion from contraction, raising serious concerns about the sustainability of China's domestic demand recovery. As Australia's largest trading partner, China's economic health directly influences AUD demand through commodity export channels, particularly iron ore and coal. The data is likely to weigh on risk-sensitive currencies including AUD and NZD, while supporting safe-haven flows into JPY, USD, and CHF. Traders should monitor upcoming Chinese industrial production and retail sales data for confirmation of a broader slowdown. Near-term, AUD/USD may test key support levels as markets reassess expectations for Chinese stimulus measures. The People's Bank of China may face renewed pressure to ease monetary policy further to support flagging growth momentum.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under pressure during Tuesday's Americas session as key economic data disappointed expectations, shifting focus back to labor market softening. US June factory orders declined 0.3% against an expected gain of 0.2%, signaling continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, JOLTs job openings came in at 7.359 million, slightly below the 7.400 million estimate and lower than the prior month's reading, reinforcing concerns about a cooling labor market. Despite the softer macro backdrop, risk sentiment found support from renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence equities, which helped stabilize broader market sentiment and limited safe-haven demand for the dollar. On the geopolitical front, Secretary Rubio noted progress on reopening the Strait, easing some supply-chain and energy-related concerns that had previously supported the greenback. Near-term, traders will monitor whether continued labor market deterioration pressures the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish stance. Key support for the DXY sits near recent lows, while resistance remains at the prior session's highs. The combination of weak data and improving risk appetite suggests near-term headwinds for the dollar.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Canada's manufacturing PMI surged to its highest level since June 2022, providing a supportive backdrop for CAD pairs including USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. The S&P Global PMI reading marked a fourth consecutive month of expansion, with output, new orders, and employment all accelerating. However, the picture is mixed: input prices rose at their fastest pace in four years, signaling mounting inflationary pressures that could influence Bank of Canada policy decisions. Notably, the expansion appears domestically driven, as new export orders declined for a second straight month, suggesting external demand remains soft. Business confidence also fell to its lowest level since March, tempering the bullish outlook. For USD/CAD traders, the strong domestic manufacturing data could support CAD strength in the near term, but weakening export orders and fading business confidence may limit downside in the pair. Traders should monitor upcoming trade balance data and BoC commentary for further directional cues on CAD crosses.
USDCAD
EURCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
