The EURUSD pushed higher in the early Asia-Pacific session, extending toward its key 100-day moving average at 1.15677. The rally stalled just short of that level, peaking at 1.15581, before buyers lost momentum and sellers regained control.The initial pullback found support near the broken 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April high at 1.1524, but the ensuing rebound ran into resistance at 1.15356—the high from Thursday's trading.
USD
EUR
Source: Finnhub
A rare US intervention in Japan's currency reminded investors of the delicate balance between the dollar and the yen and its importance for markets.
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
Wall Street welcomed August on a positive note as sentiment in global markets improved amidst easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Markets cheered the massive plunge in crude oil prices and the easing concerns about fuel-led inflation.
AUDUSD
Source: Marketaux
The U.S. dollar declined broadly against major currencies during the week ended July 31, driven by weaker-than-expected inflation data that has cast significant doubt on the Federal Reserve's ability to pursue further interest rate hikes in the near term. The softer CPI readings suggest that disinflationary trends are gaining traction, reducing the urgency for additional monetary tightening. Pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD saw upside momentum as traders recalibrated their expectations for the Fed's policy trajectory, with rate futures now pricing in a lower probability of a September hike. The DXY dollar index came under sustained selling pressure throughout the week, retreating from recent highs. Key support for the dollar index sits near the 100.50 level, while EUR/USD resistance is being tested around the 1.1050 zone. For forex traders, the data reinforces a cautious stance on long-dollar positions. Upcoming employment and GDP figures will be critical in determining whether the Fed maintains its hawkish bias or signals a pause, making the next several data releases pivotal for directional conviction.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY remains at the center of market attention as a sharp decline in crude oil prices has helped ease U.S. Treasury yields from elevated levels, providing some relief to risk assets and equity futures. The drop in oil is alleviating inflation expectations, which had pushed yields to multi-month highs and strengthened the dollar against the yen. However, the Japanese yen continues to face pressure near key psychological levels, prompting heightened speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities — a scenario traders are calling 'Yentervention.' The Bank of Japan's tolerance for yen weakness appears to be reaching its limits, and any confirmed intervention could trigger a sharp reversal in USD/JPY. Near-term resistance for the pair remains around the 152.00-153.00 zone, with support at 149.50 should intervention materialize. Traders should closely monitor Japanese Ministry of Finance commentary and U.S. yield movements for directional cues. The convergence of falling oil, shifting yield dynamics, and intervention risk creates a highly volatile environment for yen crosses, warranting tight risk management.
USDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD experiences heightened volatility around US Consumer Price Index releases, with price action driven primarily by the deviation between actual CPI figures and consensus forecasts rather than the headline number itself. Market participants have increasingly priced in expected inflation readings ahead of data releases, meaning only surprises — where actual CPI diverges from expectations — generate significant pip movements in major pairs. When CPI prints above expectations, the dollar typically strengthens as traders reprice Federal Reserve rate expectations higher, pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, softer-than-expected readings weaken the greenback as markets anticipate a more dovish Fed stance. Traders should note that the initial spike on CPI day often sees EUR/USD move 50-100 pips within minutes of the release, with follow-through dependent on the magnitude of the surprise. Key strategies around CPI events include monitoring CME FedWatch probabilities before the release and identifying pre-positioned levels of support and resistance. Risk management is critical during these high-volatility windows, as spreads widen and slippage increases substantially.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY faces significant downside pressure after Tokyo officially confirmed a coordinated US-Japan currency intervention aimed at supporting the yen. This marks a rare and highly significant development, as joint intervention signals deep concern from both governments over yen weakness and its broader economic implications. The operation represents an escalation from Japan's previous unilateral interventions, with officials warning that further coordinated action remains on the table if the yen continues to depreciate. The confirmation has traders heavily focused on the pair, with positioning skewed toward yen strength in the near term. The involvement of the US signals a potential shift in Washington's traditional stance on currency markets, adding a layer of policy uncertainty. Key support for USD/JPY now sits at recent intervention-driven lows, while resistance is capped by the levels that initially triggered the coordinated action. Traders should exercise caution, as intervention episodes historically create sharp, volatile moves with limited technical predictability. Risk management is critical in this environment, and further official commentary could trigger additional dislocations.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar faces renewed geopolitical uncertainty as the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, signed six weeks ago, has effectively collapsed after three weeks of inaction on nuclear talks. The memorandum of understanding was intended to serve as a framework for broader nuclear negotiations, but the lack of progress has returned both nations to square one, reigniting tensions in a cyclical pattern of diplomatic engagement and breakdown. For forex markets, the development reintroduces a familiar risk premium, particularly affecting USD crosses and commodity-linked currencies. Crude oil prices are likely to see upward pressure on supply disruption fears, which could benefit commodity currencies like CAD and AUD while weighing on oil-importing nations' currencies such as JPY and EUR. The recurring nature of this conflict cycle suggests markets may price in a moderate risk premium rather than a full escalation scenario. Traders should monitor oil price movements and safe-haven flows into CHF and JPY as proxies for geopolitical risk sentiment. Further diplomatic developments could shift positioning rapidly.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
