US July non-farm payrolls -23K vs +80K expectedCanada July employment change +75.1K vs +15K expectedCanada and the US discussing tariff relief dealFed's Barkin: We are in a zero-to-modest gain jobs environmentNew York Fed survey: One year inflation expectations dip to 3.6% from 3.7%Baker Hughes US weekly oil rig count: Unchanged at 588US official says there is progress on Iran-Oman on Strait of HormuzMarkets:Gold up $106 to $4345US 10-year yields down 2.8 bps to 4.64%WTI crude oil down 42-cents...
USD
JPY
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar showed limited reaction following the release of the New York Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations, which revealed a modest decline in one-year inflation expectations to 3.6% from the prior 3.7%. Medium- and longer-term expectations remained stable, with three-year projections holding at 3.3% and five-year expectations unchanged at 3.0%. The survey also noted improvements in both current and expected personal financial conditions among respondents, while labor market expectations presented a mixed picture. The marginal decline in near-term inflation expectations does little to alter the Federal Reserve's current policy trajectory, as the data suggests inflation concerns remain elevated but are not accelerating. For USD pairs, the report is largely neutral, offering no compelling catalyst for directional moves. Traders should monitor upcoming CPI and PCE data for more definitive signals on the Fed's rate path. Key USD pairs remain range-bound as markets await higher-impact economic releases later in the week to establish clearer directional bias.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under significant selling pressure after an unexpected decline in July non-farm payrolls dramatically reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, sending risk assets broadly higher. The disappointing employment data suggests the US labor market is cooling more rapidly than anticipated, undermining one of the key pillars supporting the Fed's hawkish stance. Major pairs reflected the dollar weakness, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD pushing higher while USD/JPY retreated. The softening jobs report has led interest rate futures markets to sharply reprice the probability of additional tightening, with traders now favoring a prolonged pause or even earlier rate cuts. Equity markets responded positively to the prospect of a less restrictive monetary policy environment, with broad-based gains across major indices. Dollar bears now have the momentum, and further downside could materialize if upcoming inflation data corroborates the slowdown narrative. Traders should watch for follow-through selling in USD pairs and monitor Fed commentary for any shifts in forward guidance following this pivotal labor market release.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
n unexpected decline in the U.S. non-farm payrolls in July dramatically dragged down rate hike expectations from the Federal Reserve, boosting overall market sentiment.
AUDUSD
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar faced intense selling pressure following a sharply disappointing July Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs versus the +80K consensus expectation. The data marks a significant deterioration from the prior month's +57K reading, compounded by a staggering -103K two-month net revision that slashed May's figure to +129K. Private payrolls added just 30K against the 78K forecast, underscoring broad labor market weakness. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month versus the 0.3% expected, with the year-over-year rate cooling to 3.2% against 3.5% anticipated, easing wage inflation concerns. The unemployment rate unexpectedly improved to 4.1% from 4.2%, though participation slipped to 61.4%. The weak employment and earnings data significantly bolster expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets likely repricing the September meeting as a near-certainty for easing. Traders should watch EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY for momentum continuation as dollar weakness may extend if risk sentiment deteriorates further amid recession fears.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Gold (XAU/USD) has surged 1.8% to $4,316 during the European session, maintaining strong upward momentum as the US dollar remains subdued ahead of the critical US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The precious metal continues to find support from multiple factors, including Middle East de-escalation dynamics and sustained central bank demand, with China extending its gold buying spree for a 21st consecutive month in July. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc leads among major currencies while the Canadian dollar lags, reflecting a risk-cautious market positioning. Interest rate expectations have shifted notably following this week's events, with former Fed Chair nominee Warsh's potential influence on rate policy being tempered by Trump's reminder that rate decisions rest with the full Board. Traders are closely watching the NFP data distribution, as the employment report could reshape Fed rate expectations. However, the upcoming US CPI release poses a potential risk to gold's gains, as stronger inflation data could reignite dollar strength. WTI crude oil edged down 0.4% to $76.93, adding to the mixed commodity picture heading into the jobs report.
XAUUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faces heightened volatility risk ahead of the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release, as the distribution of analyst forecasts reveals a wide range of expectations that increases the probability of a significant market surprise. When actual NFP data deviates from the consensus estimate, it creates sharp moves across USD pairs, particularly EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. The spread between the highest and lowest forecasts underscores the uncertainty surrounding the current US labor market, which remains a critical input for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce expectations for a hawkish Fed stance, boosting the dollar, while a miss to the downside would likely weigh on USD as markets price in potential rate cuts. Traders should monitor the actual release relative to both the median consensus and the distribution tails, as deviations beyond the interquartile range tend to produce the most pronounced price reactions. Key support and resistance levels across major USD pairs are likely to be tested in the immediate aftermath of the data release.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asian financial markets are under pressure as escalating Middle East tensions following a Saudi attack warning drive risk-off sentiment across the region. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7904, while traders report active intervention to support the Indian rupee against the US dollar. China's July export data provided a bright spot, beating forecasts as AI-related demand helped sustain the export engine despite fresh US tariffs, supporting the trade balance narrative. Asian equities declined broadly, with Korean markets and Japan's Nikkei weighed down by geopolitical jitters and weakness in AI-related names. In commodities, Chinese investors poured $1.2 billion into gold ETFs in the longest buying streak since March, signaling strong safe-haven demand. The ECB held rates steady, maintaining its current monetary policy stance. Crypto markets face uncertainty as the US Senate pushed the CLARITY Act vote to September. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as further Middle East escalation could strengthen safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF while pressuring risk-sensitive Asian currencies and commodity-linked pairs.
USDCNY
USDINR
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
China's July 2026 trade data came in significantly stronger than expected, with US dollar-denominated exports surging 23.0% year-over-year while imports jumped 27.5% y/y, producing a robust trade surplus of $112.5 billion. The data signals continued strength in Chinese manufacturing and global demand, which has direct implications for commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Australian dollar given Australia's deep trade ties with China. Strong Chinese imports suggest robust domestic demand for raw materials, supporting AUD/USD sentiment. The surge in both exports and imports points to a healthy global trade environment and reinforces China's position as a key driver of Asia-Pacific economic growth. Traders should monitor AUD/USD for potential upside momentum as markets digest the data. The strong import figure is also supportive for NZD/USD and may weigh on USD/CNH as yuan appreciation pressures build on the back of widening surpluses. Near-term, commodity currencies could benefit from improved risk appetite tied to China's economic resilience, though broader dollar dynamics and central bank policy divergence remain key factors.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
